Football Which Positions are Most Important? - Page 3

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:03 PM

By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data.

Some results were surprising, some really weren't.

The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season.

There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses?

There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position.

One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early?

Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later.

Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order:

C
CB
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
FB
G
HB
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
QB
S
T
TE
WR

**TimeForWasp** · 08-10-2012, 01:26 AM

Fetal

08-10-2012, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Here's the order of correlation:

QB
WR
CB
S
T
TE
HB
G
LB
DL
PR
C/FB

I never would have guessed that Pass Rusher would be so low, or that Safety would be so high. The one with a negative correlation is a subset of one of the positions listed above. Any guesses?

DE

lostcause · 08-10-2012, 05:00 AM

LEFT TACKLE

(negative correlation)

BoneKrusher · 08-10-2012, 05:23 AM

QB
LT
C
DE (Pass Rusher)
WR
MLB

Ace Gunner · 08-10-2012, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dayze

In Order:

TE
Guard
Tackle
FB
Converted Safety to CB
White Linebacker
30Yr Old WR

/True Fans

**Predarat** · 08-10-2012, 06:54 AM

This has all been covered.

**bevischief** · 08-10-2012, 06:56 AM

CoMoChief · 08-10-2012, 07:03 AM

QB
OL
DL
WR
CB
LB
S
RB
TE

MagicHef · 08-10-2012, 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lostcause

LEFT TACKLE

(negative correlation)

Ding ding ding

The only position with a negative correlation between skill and wins was Left Tackle.

The five best LTs in the league last year? Jason Peters (8 wins), Eugene Monroe (5 wins), Duane Brown (10 wins), Joe Thomas (4 wins), and Jordan Gross (6 wins).

Meanwhile, Green Bay had Chad Clifton (-10.9) play 6 games at LT, and Marshall Newhouse (-40.5, the only tackle in the league rated worse than Barry Richardson) for 12 games. Yet somehow, they managed to win 15 games.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 08-10-2012, 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Ding ding ding

The only position with a negative correlation between skill and wins was Left Tackle.

The five best LTs in the league last year? Jason Peters (8 wins), Eugene Monroe (5 wins), Duane Brown (10 wins), Joe Thomas (4 wins), and Jordan Gross (6 wins).

Meanwhile, Green Bay had Chad Clifton (-10.9) play 6 games at LT, and Marshall Newhouse (-40.5, the only tackle in the league rated worse than Barry Richardson) for 12 games. Yet somehow, they managed to win 15 games.

Somewhere a true fan is plotting a massacre that will result in the demise of dozens of people...

Deberg_1990 · 08-10-2012, 07:45 AM

Where does Long Snapper fit into all this winning?

CoMoChief · 08-10-2012, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Where does Long Snapper fit into all this winning?

Well we did have a coach that drafted one in the 4th rd.

So to him it obviously was somewhat important.

08-09-2012, 02:03 PM
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Which Positions are Most Important? By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data. Some results were surprising, some really weren't. The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season. There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses? There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position. One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early? Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later. Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order: C CB DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs) FB G HB LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs) PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs) QB S T TE WR
Posts: 10,753

08-10-2012, 01:26 AM	#31
TimeForWasp Sprinkle in some Mahomes Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Butte Montana Casino cash: $7658507	Fetal __________________ Posted via Slingshot using Rocks eBay sniper
Posts: 8,271

08-10-2012, 05:00 AM	#33
lostcause Veteran Join Date: Apr 2009 Casino cash: $9609965	LEFT TACKLE (negative correlation)
Posts: 4,759

08-10-2012, 05:23 AM	#34
BoneKrusher That's Right Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Bluefield, Virginia Casino cash: $9976645	QB LT C DE (Pass Rusher) WR MLB __________________ "MaHomes/MaAuto"
Posts: 7,333

08-10-2012, 06:54 AM	#36
Predarat Run Chiefs fans, run!! Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Nashville, TN Casino cash: $9963863	This has all been covered.
Posts: 10,776

08-10-2012, 06:56 AM	#37
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $7759352 VARSITY	69
Posts: 27,771

08-10-2012, 07:03 AM	#38
CoMoChief Mahomes Dynasty Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $7702254	QB OL DL WR CB LB S RB TE __________________
Posts: 39,243

08-10-2012, 07:45 AM	#41
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $314454	Where does Long Snapper fit into all this winning? __________________ Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
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