Football Which Positions are Most Important?

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:03 PM

By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data.

Some results were surprising, some really weren't.

The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season.

There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses?

There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position.

One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early?

Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later.

Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order:

C
CB
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
FB
G
HB
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
QB
S
T
TE
WR

08-09-2012, 02:03 PM	Topic Starter
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Which Positions are Most Important? By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data. Some results were surprising, some really weren't. The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season. There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses? There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position. One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early? Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later. Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order: C CB DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs) FB G HB LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs) PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs) QB S T TE WR
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