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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-23-2013, 08:32 AM | #46 | |
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03-23-2013, 08:36 AM | #47 | |
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Geno at #1 Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the 2nd. |
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03-23-2013, 08:42 AM | #48 |
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I will suck your dick if this comes to pass.
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03-23-2013, 08:42 AM | #49 | |
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So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick? I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively believe our picks somehow magically have more potential and value than they really do. That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere. |
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03-23-2013, 08:42 AM | #50 |
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Why not? Other than ILB its the weakest position on the team.
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03-23-2013, 08:44 AM | #51 |
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Not now because we have Captain America !!!
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03-23-2013, 08:44 AM | #52 | |
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Thanks, Trump for the civics lesson. We are learning so much about RICO, espionage, sedition, impeachment, the 25th Amendment, order of succession, nepotism, separation of powers, 1st Amendment, obstruction of justice, the emoluments clause, conflicts of interest, collusion, sanctions, oligarchs, money laundering and so much more. |
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03-23-2013, 08:53 AM | #53 |
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Appreciate the offer, but I think I will pass.
I think this new regime is doing its due diligence with regards to every position. Even though we spent a 2nd (and a conditional) on Alex Smith, they owe him nothing. Listening to the trade down offers are a must. If someone offers a deal too good to be true, you have to have your bases covered with the rest of the QB's in the draft... just in case. And if we have to trade Albert... Not my favorite choice, but it is what it is. We don't have to spend a first to replace him. |
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03-23-2013, 09:00 AM | #54 |
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03-23-2013, 09:05 AM | #55 |
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03-23-2013, 09:06 AM | #56 |
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Howie's black sheep kid which is fine.
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03-23-2013, 09:18 AM | #57 | |
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How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"? How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying. I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds. What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means. I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it. Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why? |
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03-23-2013, 09:26 AM | #58 |
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KC drafts Geno, trades Chubby Chase for a fourth rounder, KC drafts second coming of Jared Allen with extra fourth round pick. KC wins multiple Superbowls with Geno and "Jared".
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03-23-2013, 09:30 AM | #59 | |
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03-23-2013, 09:31 AM | #60 |
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You just described Ricky Stanzi.
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