GMs Chris Ballard and Dorsey believe there are only 15 first round talents

[Iconic]

This is just the opinion of one GM but I thought it might be interesting to all in regards to mock drafts.

Ballard: “All of these mock drafts are wrong” Reporter: “Aren’t they always?” Ballard: “Yea but this year they’re really wrong.”

Ballard explains that he sees 14 players in this draft who are blue chip, elite level players. From 15 through the top of the third, “the talent level is consistent.”

The takeaway here is Ballard is saying that the back half of the first and the second round are going to be very different than what people think. What that means for mock drafters is don’t be afraid to put guys higher than the crowd thinks because you might be right. A lot of these solidified late 1st guys won’t go that high, according to him.

Secondly

In breaking down the trade on the Move the Sticks podcast with Bucky Brooks (filling in for Daniel Jeremiah), NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dropped the knowledge nugget. “I had heard that the Browns considered there to be 15 players that are first round players in this year’s draft,” Zierlein explained. “That sounds about right. About 15 guys who are first round picks. Analytics is always about quantifying value so, for them, that 17th pick, they considered that a second round player, generally speaking. In the Browns’ mind, they considered they were giving up a second-round player and not a first round player. That makes even more sense right now,”

So in response who do you believe are the 15 elite level players in this draft?

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I don’t think it’s getting cute by any means. If you trade up, you’re increasing the odds of getting a foundational player who makes a big difference from day one. If you trade back, you have more opportunities to hit on your day 2/3 lottery tickets.

There’s a method to every direction they may go, including pros and cons.

I don't think we have enough draft capital to get a foundational player without screwing ourselves in future years.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by In58men

Who’s the guy @ 14

Ed Oliver

[Coogs]

Moving the Chains had their Friday mock today. Had us moving up to Seattle's spot. Cost us our 61 pick. Here is the draft.

https://twitter.com/siriusxmnfl?lang=en

For the 1st round you have to scroll down a couple of posts.

Prolly not going to go over real well either.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Guys say that every year. Hell, Mark Schlereth once said there are only six in any draft and every guy from then through the third is about the same.

Now the Homer's have a built in excuse for when Veach Whiffs

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Coogs

Moving the Chains had their Friday mock today. Had us moving up to Seattle's spot. Cost us our 61 pick. Here is the draft.

https://twitter.com/siriusxmnfl?lang=en

For the 1st round you have to scroll down a couple of posts.

Prolly not going to go over real well either.

Good God, no. Giving up a second?

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Good God, no. Giving up a second?

Look who we left on the table.

[Tribal Warfare]

Those who believe that the Chiefs can get an impact player at the #29 spot and beyond in the draft that doesn't have his fair share of warts ( boom or bust) are fooling themselves.

For example I'd stay away from Jaylon Ferguson, some will essentially go on the mantra " check his stats" without the qualifier of competition and his horrific cone drill testing.

If Sweat or Ferrell falls in the #17 pick range I'd go them.

[prhom]

With the notable exception of trading up for a franchise QB, I’d say the mark of a great GM is finding value in the boring part of the draft. Dorsey found stars in the third round and later. I’d rather have more picks in the second and third rounds than move up and lose one of two of them.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Good God, no. Giving up a second?

Uh, yeah. That's what it would take to get up to Ferrell country.

[JakeF]

If this is true then the Raiders are boned.

[suzzer99]

Bosa and Murray have bust written all over them. So now we're down to 13.

Well Bosa will be ok probably - but not elite - I predict.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by prhom

With the notable exception of trading up for a franchise QB, I’d say the mark of a great GM is finding value in the boring part of the draft. Dorsey found stars in the third round and later. I’d rather have more picks in the second and third rounds than move up and lose one of two of them.

Yep...past the top 10-12 prospects, it comes down to scheme and scouting.

Chiefs best players are almost all 3rd round or later picks. Fuller, Mathieu, Kelce, Hunt (rip), Hill.

The older you get, the more you realize the draft number system is an arbitrary guide...#17 isn't anymore a guarantee of success than #67. You have a ton of money invested into scouting fits for your roster...it's why moving up is usually done by teams with shitty research.

Emmanuel Ogbah was picked #33 just a few years a ago...four after where KC chooses this year. If people are going to base things off the numbers game...they should be extremely happy with their new high 2nd round acquisition from Cleveland.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Coogs

Moving the Chains had their Friday mock today. Had us moving up to Seattle's spot. Cost us our 61 pick. Here is the draft.

https://twitter.com/siriusxmnfl?lang=en

For the 1st round you have to scroll down a couple of posts.

Prolly not going to go over real well either.

Those guys smoke crack before doing that draft? Two trades into the top 5 for non-QBs? That's not going to happen, especially a team going to #1 from 5 for nothing but a 2nd and a DT that's 31 years old to pick a DT...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Lawrence go 10th to Denver. Big guys that move that well and are that strong don't come along every year. He's a NT in the mold of Poe that can split double-teams and disrupt the backfield. Sure he fits KC, but KC has a good NT already for a 4-3 and need a ton of help elsewhere. I'd doubt he's the pick, and especially in a trade up.

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Bosa and Murray have bust written all over them. So now we're down to 13.

Well Bosa will be ok probably - but not elite - I predict.

I feel that way about Devin White.

[farmerchief]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

Those who believe that the Chiefs can get an impact player at the #29 spot and beyond in the draft that doesn't have his fair share of warts ( boom or bust) are fooling themselves.

Ive ran so many mock drafts this spring, something I have never done before in my 50 years of being a Chiefs fan. After so many different results,after each draft, Ive come to realize there are very good players available for each of the Chiefs first 3-4 picks. I fail to see, with the Chiefs first three selections, where they will not be able to draft 3 players that will contribute immensely to the teams fortunes this year. May not immediately, but upon playoff time, they will be major contributors. With that all said and done, I wouldnt be too excited to trade up for any player. Keep our draft picks, and do the selections.