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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-23-2013, 09:36 AM | #61 |
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03-23-2013, 09:42 AM | #62 |
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Doesn't matter
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03-23-2013, 09:46 AM | #63 |
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And personally I don't care if they take Geno or not. Take the whomever you think is the best QB in this class. If he crashes and burns take another one in a high round until you do get a good one.
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03-23-2013, 09:46 AM | #64 |
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03-23-2013, 09:47 AM | #65 |
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03-23-2013, 09:49 AM | #66 |
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03-23-2013, 09:49 AM | #67 |
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I don't consider expectations for Geno Smith to be overinflated, but I do think folks are making him seem like he's a no risk player. He isn't. There are parts of his game that are underdeveloped and it is certainly questionable as to whether Geno Smith can handle pressure of the NFL better than pressure of college ball. Can he mature?
I have always maintained he could have good success if paired with a sympathetic offensive minded coach like Gruden or Jim Harbaugh. But I don't consider Andy Reid to coach like Gruden does, he demands his QB play the game his way and the WCO is a complex system for any young man to command. I still feel this draft is awash from 1 to 15 and Geno Smith isn't really a top fifteen player in a normal draft, but I would grab him because this team needs to start grabbing young QB talent and he does have elite ability, not necessarily saying he is elite overall. I like his throwing motion a lot. I like the trajectory he has, very high release and the ball points down when he makes short passes, which is great for WCO style and guarding the ball from INT during tips. It also makes it harder to make a play, defensively. He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor. I'm not sure how I feel about his nerve, though it seems he does stand in during blitz and pass rushing that gets in on him. Those are the areas of concern for me.
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03-23-2013, 09:54 AM | #68 | |
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Quote:
Examples: Montana, Elway, Graham, Staubach, Marino, Bradshaw, Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Manning II, and Flacco. |
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03-23-2013, 10:00 AM | #69 | |
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There are a lot of "franchise QBs" that have never won a SB: Dan Marino Archie Manning Fran Tarkenton Dan Fouts Sonny Jurgensen Kenny Anderson Donovan McNabb Roman Gabriel Jim Kelly Boomer Esiason Steve McNair Bert Jones Phillip Rivers Ron Jaworski Daunte Culpepper Joe Ferguson Steve Grogan Ton Romo |
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03-23-2013, 10:00 AM | #70 | |
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03-23-2013, 10:03 AM | #71 |
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This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.
If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.
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03-23-2013, 10:04 AM | #72 |
Shit
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03-23-2013, 10:10 AM | #73 |
Better to burn out...
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Holy ****ing shit, I'm sick hearing about Geno Smith.
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03-23-2013, 10:10 AM | #74 |
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They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.
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03-23-2013, 10:12 AM | #75 |
Better to burn out...
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