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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-23-2013, 12:55 PM | #121 | |||
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03-23-2013, 01:00 PM | #122 |
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As far as a trade down is concerned, the fact that they are shopping Albert suggests they have found someone to trade up to draft Geno. If they trade down, they know that a QB won't be there and they will be likely to have to take an LT. So they trade Albert so that they can take the LT at something like 1.8, get a first next year from BUF, they trade Albert for a second this year and a third next year.
That way, they take Fisher at 1.8, and get a decent first round pick next year, while using Albert to try and get back the crazy compensation they gave up for AS this year. Sadly, that means no QB for us. They are choosing instead to have two first rounders next year, which sounds good, but they will not be enough to trade for the first pick next year to get the best QB in next year's draft. |
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03-23-2013, 01:02 PM | #123 |
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No anyone who isn't ****ing blind can see that.
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03-23-2013, 01:09 PM | #124 | |
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Brilliant!!
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03-23-2013, 01:13 PM | #125 | ||
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No...
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03-23-2013, 01:27 PM | #126 | |
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That'd be like flipping it around and dismissing a large part of what Geno did in college because he consistently played below average to terrible defenses and when he played someone like a K-State didn't play well at all. Does it take away from what he did or make him any less of a prospect? Uh no. I like Geno...I wanted Geno...I still do...but I'm not losing any sleep over the fact he more than likely will be playing elsewhere in the NFL. |
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03-23-2013, 01:36 PM | #127 |
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It suggests that they want to pinch pennies with Albert. Nothing more, nothing less. Either it's negotiating publicly to get his demands down, or it's straight up trying to get rid of him.
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03-23-2013, 01:51 PM | #128 |
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No it doesn't. It could suggest they can't find a reasonable offer to trade down, and trading Albert guarantees a Joeckel pick.
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03-23-2013, 02:11 PM | #129 | |
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I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB." Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected? Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win? Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"? Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team? How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB? I don't know. |
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03-23-2013, 02:17 PM | #130 | |
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03-23-2013, 02:20 PM | #131 | |
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03-23-2013, 02:23 PM | #132 | |
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03-23-2013, 02:23 PM | #133 |
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Geno sucks!
Albert sucks! All because Reid and Dorsey say so!
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03-23-2013, 02:27 PM | #134 |
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and obtw- Eli was poopy pants his first years. fans threw stuff at him all the time at home in the meadowlands. a lot of fans still say Eli isn't an elite QB but just got lucky, had a good defense etc.
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03-23-2013, 02:28 PM | #135 |
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overinflated expectations?
As a fan and I think my expectations are right on. I see Geno as a guy we should draft and develop for a year or two. We already have the veteran and a guy to push him. So do the right thing Andy - draft a freakin' qb with the overall # 1 |
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