Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

[DTLB58]

Originally Posted by Rausch

It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.



Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

So your theory and belief is that there will not be any QBs in this draft that will be any good or our crack team of talent spotters would know? Therefore we need to draft a tackle at 1.1 or where ever to replace the "Probowl caliber LT" (Andy's words not mine) we hope to get a 2nd for?

Brilliant!!

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

yes, and even when you do, you have to be firing on all cylinders so to speak and a lil luck usually finds it's way to you in the game of football. I am a NYG fan and the recent run on championships has been largely with the same team, whether win it all or lose out early. so there's that. someone mentioned a 9 - 7 giants champ team, it goes to show a lot of aspects about success as a football team.

[58-4ever]

KC drafts Geno, trades Chubby Chase for a fourth rounder, KC drafts second coming of Jared Allen with extra fourth round pick. KC wins multiple Superbowls with Geno and "Jared".

KEEP ****ING DOUBTING MY GM ABILITIES

[Dave Lane]

And personally I don't care if they take Geno or not. Take the whomever you think is the best QB in this class. If he crashes and burns take another one in a high round until you do get a good one.

[Ace Gunner]

I don't consider expectations for Geno Smith to be overinflated, but I do think folks are making him seem like he's a no risk player. He isn't. There are parts of his game that are underdeveloped and it is certainly questionable as to whether Geno Smith can handle pressure of the NFL better than pressure of college ball. Can he mature?

I have always maintained he could have good success if paired with a sympathetic offensive minded coach like Gruden or Jim Harbaugh. But I don't consider Andy Reid to coach like Gruden does, he demands his QB play the game his way and the WCO is a complex system for any young man to command.

I still feel this draft is awash from 1 to 15 and Geno Smith isn't really a top fifteen player in a normal draft, but I would grab him because this team needs to start grabbing young QB talent and he does have elite ability, not necessarily saying he is elite overall.

I like his throwing motion a lot. I like the trajectory he has, very high release and the ball points down when he makes short passes, which is great for WCO style and guarding the ball from INT during tips. It also makes it harder to make a play, defensively.

He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor.

I'm not sure how I feel about his nerve, though it seems he does stand in during blitz and pass rushing that gets in on him.

Those are the areas of concern for me.

[NorthernWV]

Originally Posted by Buzz_TinBalls

He's got an elite arm, decent accuracy, but I have read where he loses focus and accuracy. We saw this during a few plays when he was up against K State and Baylor.

Yeah that game where he went 45-51 656 yards 8TDs and 0 INTS was rough...

[patteeu]

This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by patteeu

For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by patteeu

This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.

Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

I've agreed with all of your posts in this thread. You're asking the right questions, IMO. I've personally been shocked that many people now think that Joe Flacco is a "franchise quarterback" and I found it interesting when you posted his CAV next to all those other QBs in post 77.

[Chief Roundup]

So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision.
The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when?
This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long.
No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win.
So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.