cdcox's playoff forecast - Page 2

**cdcox** · 10-17-2005, 04:41 PM

Well, I was hoping that I would be ready to distribute software by now. Way too much to do at work is going to put that offf for a couple of weeks, at least. Here are some screen shots from my software that describes the playoff and post season picture right now. In these predictions, I assumed Indy wins tonight.

Screenshots will be attached in an early post in this thread.

Extra Point · 10-23-2005, 08:10 AM

Is there a "wise up, finally, pound the rock, and don't run any cute trick plays" option in the program?

**Rain Man** · 10-23-2005, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip Towne

Seedy, haven't you learned by now not to argue with Rainman? He's a statistical genious.

Oh, by the way, I didn't win the powerball again, dammit. I can't figure out why.

**Skip Towne** · 10-23-2005, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Oh, by the way, I didn't win the powerball again, dammit. I can't figure out why.

Don't you usually take Sunday off? It seems strange seeing you here on Sunday.

**morphius** · 10-23-2005, 08:33 AM

Glad to see you brought this back, I was wondering where it was this year.

**RealSNR** · 10-23-2005, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip Towne

Don't you usually take Sunday off? It seems strange seeing you here on Sunday.

He's just doing what the Lord asked him to do, you ****ing heathen!

**Rain Man** · 10-23-2005, 09:41 AM

My religion doesn't allow me to type on Sundays, so I have to hire some kid to do it. It's usually easier to just not mess with it.

**cdcox** · 10-23-2005, 06:03 PM

After Sunday's games:

Odds of KC winning division: 30% (Denver still the odds on favorite)
Odds of KC making playoffs: 61%
Odds of KC getting first round bye: 16%

I'll post a full update after the game has been played Monday.

**Rain Man** · 10-23-2005, 06:17 PM

There's a 61 percent chance that the sleeping giant has awakened.

**cdcox** · 10-25-2005, 12:57 PM

Here is the OFFICIAL update after week 7. Some of the numbers are a few percentage points different than what I posted over the weekend because I'm still tinkering with the power ratings. Rain Man won't be happy with the direction.

chiefqueen · 10-25-2005, 04:36 PM

You need to tweak it some. You need to figure out a way to increase New England's changes (you have them currently 7th) & decrease the chances of KC, JAX, PITT, DEN, and Cincy. One of those five will miss the playoffs.

Figuring that Indy & NE will make b/c the rest of their respective divisions suck.

steelyeyed57 · 10-25-2005, 05:12 PM

have you ever tested the reliability of those numbers? Run them based on this same week of the season from last year and see how the results compare to what actually happened. Hopefully, they are way off, if they're not, I don't want to hear about it.

**cdcox** · 10-25-2005, 08:24 PM

Chiefqueen and steelyeyed57: remember that these are probability predictions not absolute. So I would expect some of the top 6 in each conference to fade away and others to take their place by the end of the season.

Here is a thread that shows the week by week predictions last year:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=102518

Here is an evaluation of the accuarcy of predictions from the 2002 season.

**Rain Man** · 10-25-2005, 08:38 PM

It seems odd that it went down after a Chiefs win, combined with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, and others.

**cdcox** · 10-25-2005, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

It seems odd that it went down after a Chiefs win, combined with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, and others.

Compare to the odds after week 6, as posted in the second post in the thread. Overall the odds got a whole lot better. There were a couple anomolies in the 60% odds I was posting between KC's win and Monday night's game.

10-17-2005, 04:41 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2261769	cdcox's playoff forecast Well, I was hoping that I would be ready to distribute software by now. Way too much to do at work is going to put that offf for a couple of weeks, at least. Here are some screen shots from my software that describes the playoff and post season picture right now. In these predictions, I assumed Indy wins tonight. Screenshots will be attached in an early post in this thread.
Posts: 45,543

10-23-2005, 08:10 AM	#16
Extra Point MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Prairie Village, KS Casino cash: $10004900	Is there a "wise up, finally, pound the rock, and don't run any cute trick plays" option in the program? __________________ "Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." --Satchel Paige
Posts: 7,845

10-23-2005, 08:33 AM	#19
morphius World's finest morphius Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $6885027	Glad to see you brought this back, I was wondering where it was this year.
Posts: 25,973

10-23-2005, 09:41 AM	#21
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3168491 VARSITY	My religion doesn't allow me to type on Sundays, so I have to hire some kid to do it. It's usually easier to just not mess with it. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,577

10-23-2005, 06:03 PM	#22
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2261769	After Sunday's games: Odds of KC winning division: 30% (Denver still the odds on favorite) Odds of KC making playoffs: 61% Odds of KC getting first round bye: 16% I'll post a full update after the game has been played Monday.
Posts: 45,543

10-23-2005, 06:17 PM	#23
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3168491 VARSITY	There's a 61 percent chance that the sleeping giant has awakened. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,577

10-25-2005, 12:57 PM	#24
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2261769	Here is the OFFICIAL update after week 7. Some of the numbers are a few percentage points different than what I posted over the weekend because I'm still tinkering with the power ratings. Rain Man won't be happy with the direction. Attached Thumbnails
Posts: 45,543

10-25-2005, 04:36 PM	#25
chiefqueen On my throne Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $8162060	You need to tweak it some. You need to figure out a way to increase New England's changes (you have them currently 7th) & decrease the chances of KC, JAX, PITT, DEN, and Cincy. One of those five will miss the playoffs. Figuring that Indy & NE will make b/c the rest of their respective divisions suck.
Posts: 4,179

10-25-2005, 05:12 PM	#26
steelyeyed57 Starter Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Lenox, Iowa Casino cash: $1404254	have you ever tested the reliability of those numbers? Run them based on this same week of the season from last year and see how the results compare to what actually happened. Hopefully, they are way off, if they're not, I don't want to hear about it.
Posts: 191

10-25-2005, 08:38 PM	#28
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3168491 VARSITY	It seems odd that it went down after a Chiefs win, combined with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, and others. __________________ I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
Posts: 141,577