10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs - Page 2

**cdcox** · 11-15-2005, 01:09 AM

I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.

Extra Point · 11-15-2005, 08:07 AM

10-6 would be good enough to make the playoffs, in the NFC East. I thought a month ago that 9-7 was going to be the 2005 season record. It's more like 7-9 or 6-10.

I hope that there will be an implosion between now and the first day of spring. Thanks, Dick, it's been interesting. Al, you've morphed into Don Coryell without the young linemen. Carl, you wore out the Super Bowl-bound sports car; it needs to be overhauled, because you didn't change the oil or lube the suspension. Guys, time for you and your friends to go. Gun, Frank Jr., you can stay.

Romeo Crennel, you want the job of head coach? Bill Bellichik, would you like to be our new GM?

Amnorix · 11-15-2005, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duck Dog

We can't beat a bad Bills team....there is no way we are playoff caliber. Our Oline can not pass block. Our receivers can not get open. Our revamped defensive back field can not stop the pass. The only reason we have had some success in stopping the run is because everyone throws on us.

The Bills aren't really bad. They're an average NFL team. They have some very good strengths, and some serious weaknesses. But they're hardly terrible.

Coogs · 11-15-2005, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaz

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.

They showed LJ stats rushing the ball to the Left-Middle-Right sides, shortly after halftime Sunday. I don't recall to the number what they were, but he had virtually all of his yardage up the middle.

And the play action pass was working effectively with the middle runs too. Once we got into relative scoring position on the field, AS abandoned that theory, ran to the outside, and had straight drop back passes. Neither of those two things were effective.

IMO, if we would let this OL plow straight ahead, and mix in basically nothing but the play action pass (Steve DeBerg days style of offense), I think we could make it work. Our defense has shown enough improvement to compliment that type of offense.

Redcoats58 · 11-15-2005, 02:47 PM

The only way I see the Chiefs winning enough games to get into the playoffs is if Willie Roaf can get healthy enough to play out the rest of the season. No Willie, no playoffs. Its that simple. This team is a night and day different team with him in.

Lurch · 11-15-2005, 02:51 PM

We've gone from hopes of a Superbowl to hoping to make the playoffs. Disappointing and disgraceful.

StcChief · 11-15-2005, 02:54 PM

10-6 not likely in AFC. Losing conf games.
don't help if a WC is all we got to hope for....a one and out.

Buffalo
Pats - ?
Cincy - ?

**Dunit35** · 11-15-2005, 03:14 PM

I had some dude trying to tell me the NFC was a better conferance with more talant and thats why the records of teams are worse. WTF?

Redcoats58 · 11-15-2005, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunit35

I had some dude trying to tell me the NFC was a better conferance with more talant and thats why the records of teams are worse. WTF?

Hehe, my boss said the same thing to me. He happens to be a Lions fan so what the hell does he know.

**Nzoner** · 11-15-2005, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurch

We've gone from hopes of a Superbowl to hoping to make the playoffs. Disappointing and disgraceful.

And something we should be very used to by now.

11-15-2005, 01:09 AM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2231769	10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it. My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.
Posts: 45,543

11-15-2005, 08:07 AM	#16
Extra Point MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Prairie Village, KS Casino cash: $10004900	10-6 would be good enough to make the playoffs, in the NFC East. I thought a month ago that 9-7 was going to be the 2005 season record. It's more like 7-9 or 6-10. I hope that there will be an implosion between now and the first day of spring. Thanks, Dick, it's been interesting. Al, you've morphed into Don Coryell without the young linemen. Carl, you wore out the Super Bowl-bound sports car; it needs to be overhauled, because you didn't change the oil or lube the suspension. Guys, time for you and your friends to go. Gun, Frank Jr., you can stay. Romeo Crennel, you want the job of head coach? Bill Bellichik, would you like to be our new GM? __________________ "Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." --Satchel Paige
Posts: 7,845

11-15-2005, 02:47 PM	#19
Redcoats58 MVP Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Kansas City Mo. Casino cash: $10005055	The only way I see the Chiefs winning enough games to get into the playoffs is if Willie Roaf can get healthy enough to play out the rest of the season. No Willie, no playoffs. Its that simple. This team is a night and day different team with him in.
Posts: 5,234

11-15-2005, 02:51 PM	#20
Lurch You rang? Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Greenbriar, USA Casino cash: $10004957	We've gone from hopes of a Superbowl to hoping to make the playoffs. Disappointing and disgraceful. __________________ Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy. -- Benjamin Franklin
Posts: 1,538

11-15-2005, 02:54 PM	#21
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	10-6 not likely in AFC. Losing conf games. don't help if a WC is all we got to hope for....a one and out. Buffalo Pats - ? Cincy - ? __________________ sig test for this screwy schema
Posts: 25,901

11-15-2005, 03:14 PM	#22
Dunit35 Keepin it Real Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Oklahoma Casino cash: $1307045	I had some dude trying to tell me the NFC was a better conferance with more talant and thats why the records of teams are worse. WTF?
Posts: 10,490