***Official 2016 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

• 2011 World Series Championship
• 2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
• 2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
• 2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance
• 2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS.
• Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons.
• 67 post season wins since 2004. 24+ wins more than any other team.

SI article on our off season, Gives us a "A". ??:
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/12/win...ouis-cardinals

2015 III thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=295296
2015 II thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=293412
2015 I thread:
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=289085

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah.

The list of guys I'd trade Reyes for is fairly short, but Arenado's on it.

But the Cards and a whole lot of teams with more 'tradeable' farm systems than we have would all be in on him. The Cards best long-term assets are still far away. And if you want to start digging, even teams full of guys that are that far off have guys with higher ceilings.

For instance, Boston's farm system is largely a fair distance away as well. That said, Moncada, Benitendi and Devers are a hell of a lot more attractive than what we could offer. You have to think the Bosox would give up Devers (Arenado replacement), Moncada and Espinoza in a heartbeat to get someone like Arenado in the fold.

It's just a shitty reality the Cards find themselves in. Teams above them and below them are probably better situated going forward. The Cards are going to be stuck in the middle for the foreseeable future.

You think Moncada and Devers would be part of the asking price? He's a young superstar, but they made such an investment in Moncada I have a hard time believing the Sox would be willing to move him.

Really think the Cards missed the boat when they failed to move Wacha and Adams a few years back. Both guys debuted and performed above expected levels... Really think that was a great opportunity to sell high and get a legit, proven bat back they could control for a long time.

Also, from a non-Cards fan, it seems like Oscar Taveras' death really rattled Mozeliak... It's like he's been on "tilt" ever since.

Thoughts on Mozeliak? Is that part of a factor? Or is this all a result of him struggling without Luhnow (and his top guys) around to build the far system for him?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

If they end up sucking and would be interested, would you put a package with reyes together for arenado?

Prefaced with the fact that I have no clue about his situation in colorado, only remember him not being happy with the way they did tulo

Reyes is untouchable IMO. No way we get his value to the Cardinals back in offense. We are going to have to empty the farm to get these type of guys mentioned. We don't need to panic. We can handle a down year without panicking.

I know that some disagree but the playoffs are all about top shelf pitching. Dominant #1/#2 starters and a deep bullpen. Especially the WC and the NLDS.

No one disagrees that Reyes ceiling is a solid #1 starter. In 2017, at least 2018 having Reyes/Martinez/Wacha will give us a chance in any playoff series.

[O.city]

I think the Taveras death caused some issues with him, but they had a gap in the system coming for a little while (mostly from shitty picks and fast risers).

And in regards to moving Reyes, I don't think you can at this point as you've discussed DJ. They're essentially gonna have to hope Piscotty and Grichuk become stars in their own right, and to that, I'm not holding my breath.

[Mi_chief_fan]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Also, from a non-Cards fan, it seems like Oscar Taveras' death really rattled Mozeliak... It's like he's been on "tilt" ever since.

Thoughts on Mozeliak? Is that part of a factor? Or is this all a result of him struggling without Luhnow (and his top guys) around to build the far system for him?

That was really where it started to spiral out of control, IMO. Made a knee-jerk trade that turned out to be awful; followed up by another awful trade at last summer's deadline, followed by an awful offseason in which the offense not only wasn't addressed, but it actually got worse. His drafting since Luhnow left has not been strong. They're currently at a point where the cupboard is bare at the top of the minors, but strong at the bottom. And of course, his hiring of Mike Matheny Michigan Man was pretty dismal.

In short, Mo's gotten the benefit of the doubt because of 2011; however, people are starting to question whether keeping him over Luhnow was the right move. He'll probably continue to get some lee way, but if next year goes like this year looks to go......he'll certainly be looking over his shoulder.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Reyes is untouchable IMO. No way we get his value to the Cardinals back in offense. We are going to have to empty the farm to get these type of guys mentioned. We don't need to panic. We can handle a down year without panicking.

I know that some disagree but the playoffs are all about top shelf pitching. Dominant #1/#2 starters and a deep bullpen.

No one disagrees that Reyes ceiling is a #1 starter. In 2017 having Reyes/Martinez/Wacha will give us a chance in any playoff series.

The playoffs are about winning. Theres a few ways to do that, but in the end, you can't be one dimensional and win in the playoffs.

You've gotta pitch, you've gotta hit and you've gotta field. For me, I think you're more likely to get good enough pitched games from decent to good pitchers, but you've gotta have the horses to score runs.

[DJ's left nut]

I'm harder on Mozeliak than most.

For me, he lost Luhnow and we're starting to see really quickly that he's probably about an average GM.

The Cult of Moe continues to prop up players that simply aren't that good as evidence of Mozeliak's brilliance.

I don't really blame him for Wacha; the shoulder issue seems to have ****ed him up and frankly, when Wacha stared down Kershaw and was throwing 98 mph with one of the best changeups in the league (and a developing curve), why would you deal him? That would be like saying that the Mets should move Syndergaard - Wacha looked to have more value to the Cards than anything they could get for him. He just hasn't ever recovered from the shoulder thing, his changeup has regressed and his curve has plateaued.

My problem with Mozeliak is his history of half-measures and Luhnow's stocked system making Mozeliak think this was an easy job that you can excel at without taking risks. He's constantly touting his position as the 2nd best offer on the table (Kang, Price and Moncada are notable examples but it goes back further than that). He hasn't been willing to move a signature prospect package for someone of true value in awhile but rather would just keep packaging one-offs for pieces of shit like Moss and Masterson. Ramsey, Kaminskey and Colleymore isn't appreciably more than it took to get Holliday but instead it got us...well pretty much nothing.

The bottom line to me is that Moe was good enough when the rest of the division was weak. Theo, OTOH, is unquestionably better than him and I think Huntington might be as well. Moe's good enough to keep us competitive but it seems damn unlikely to me that he'll do anything to real in Theo and the Cubs. They're smarter than us with deeper pockets. Unless they experience the same kind of talent drain we did in the front office (and unless Theo also proves to be an empty suit), we'll just keep losing ground to them.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

That was really where it started to spiral out of control, IMO. Made a knee-jerk trade that turned out to be awful; followed up by another awful trade at last summer's deadline, followed by an awful offseason in which the offense not only wasn't addressed, but it actually got worse. His drafting since Luhnow left has not been strong. They're currently at a point where the cupboard is bare at the top of the minors, but strong at the bottom. And of course, his hiring of Mike Matheny Michigan Man was pretty dismal.

In short, Mo's gotten the benefit of the doubt because of 2011; however, people are starting to question whether keeping him over Luhnow was the right move. He'll probably continue to get some lee way, but if next year goes like this year looks to go......he'll certainly be looking over his shoulder.

That's the problem with depending on the low minors - you really have NO idea what they are until AA.

This entire farm system could easily spiral into nothing by the time they reach AAA.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah.

The list of guys I'd trade Reyes for is fairly short, but Arenado's on it.

Even with Arenado's away splits? His defense wont go away but outside of Coors his offensive numbers are rather pedestrian.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'm harder on Mozeliak than most.

For me, he lost Luhnow and we're starting to see really quickly that he's probably about an average GM.

The Cult of Moe continues to prop up players that simply aren't that good as evidence of Mozeliak's brilliance.

I don't really blame him for Wacha; the shoulder issue seems to have ****ed him up and frankly, when Wacha stared down Kershaw and was throwing 98 mph with one of the best changeups in the league (and a developing curve), why would you deal him? That would be like saying that the Mets should move Syndergaard - Wacha looked to have more value to the Cards than anything they could get for him. He just hasn't ever recovered from the shoulder thing, his changeup has regressed and his curve has plateaued.

My problem with Mozeliak is his history of half-measures and Luhnow's stocked system making Mozeliak think this was an easy job that you can excel at without taking risks. He's constantly touting his position as the 2nd best offer on the table (Kang, Price and Moncada are notable examples but it goes back further than that). He hasn't been willing to move a signature prospect package for someone of true value in awhile but rather would just keep packaging one-offs for pieces of shit like Moss and Masterson. Ramsey, Kaminskey and Colleymore isn't appreciably more than it took to get Holliday but instead it got us...well pretty much nothing.

The bottom line to me is that Moe was good enough when the rest of the division was weak. Theo, OTOH, is unquestionably better than him and I think Huntington might be as well. Moe's good enough to keep us competitive but it seems damn unlikely to me that he'll do anything to real in Theo and the Cubs. They're smarter than us with deeper pockets. Unless they experience the same kind of talent drain we did in the front office (and unless Theo also proves to be an empty suit), we'll just keep losing ground to them.

Yeah, I'm wondering if he's just now getting back to being healthy. Or if he's there yet or ever will be.

Dude was a monster early. That game in Pitt was a thing of beauty.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Also, from a non-Cards fan, it seems like Oscar Taveras' death really rattled Mozeliak... It's like he's been on "tilt" ever since.

It set us back thats for sure. You can't lose 6 years of cost controlled possible All-Star #3/#4 bat that you had a master plan to build around and it not hurt. Then we lost our #3 starter to fill the spot and we end up with a late 1st rounder as compensation. We are not getting a possible All-Star #3/#4 bat at that spot.

Mo has made some damn good deals. Getting Holliday, Grichuk and a bullpen in 2011 that got us a WS championship were great deals. The last two mid season trades have been head scratchers.

I'm okay with Mo overall. It's Matheny that I want gone.

[bdj23]

Originally Posted by Snapplez

BFIB

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...6853?cid=bitly

I'd like to see some proof of this, other than some sjw twitter feeds. I lstened to the game at home in dead silence and didn't hear anything

Also, people like @BradlyArd1 will find racism in anything.

[Mi_chief_fan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's the problem with depending on the low minors - you really have NO idea what they are until AA.

This entire farm system could easily spiral into nothing by the time they reach AAA.

Truth.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Even with Arenado's away splits? His defense wont go away but outside of Coors his offensive numbers are rather pedestrian.

It worries me a little but most guys have a Coors equalization after they leave as well and while their home splits will drop, their road splits come up a bit as well.

He just has natural power that you don't see terribly often. He hit 22 road homers last year and to me that means his power will play anywhere. He's a 40 HR hitter anywhere he goes, IMO. And if his other rate stats drop a bit and he's only an .860 OPS player w/ 40 HR pop and superlative defense at 3b, that's a damn valuable player.

Take Giancarlo Stanton, make him one of the best defensive IFers in the game and trade some of the walks for fewer strikeouts and you're telling me that's not worth Reyes?

[duncan_idaho]

Yeah, Arrenado would be a monster addition for St. Louis and is young enough that you do the long term extension and have the offensive centerpiece to build around (it helps that he plays a premium position, too).

Alex Reyes has huge upside, but he isn't without flaws, either. His walk rate is a sizable red flag. If he could be the centerpiece in a deal for Arrenado, it's worth it.

Arrenado has four years of control remaining, even if he doesn't sign an extension (but likely would be willing to do that - he's still pre-arb).


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[Brent Williams]

Just saw the lineup for the game tonight. Adams at first and sitting Piscotty. Not sure why MM doesn't go with the lineup that scored all the runs earlier. Holiday at first and the young guys in the outfield. O and btw Diaz out and RT in at SS.