Chiefs Paylor:How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s

**Tribal Warfare** · 06-05-2014, 10:28 PM

How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s $126 million deal

San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick went out of his way Wednesday to thank current Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, the man whose job he usurped two years ago.

“I don’t think I would be at this point so quickly if he hadn’t been such a great mentor to me and helped me along with things,” Kaepernick, 26, said after news broke about his six-year, $126 million contract extension.

But it’s also easy to think Kaepernick may have returned the favor by setting the market for Smith, who is seeking a new deal of his own.

“If I represented Alex Smith,” said former agent Joel Corry, “I’d be telling the Chiefs that my numbers on where the quarterback market is and will be going is correct.”

Kaepernick’s extension is actually worth just $13 million guaranteed but includes roster bonuses that can push that number up. There are also de-escalators, according to media reports, and the contract is constructed in such a way that the 49ers could get out of the deal after a few years with minimal consequence.

Corry said the Chiefs might push for a similar structure, citing Kaepernick as a reference, though he suspects Smith’s agent, Tom Condon, would never go for it.

“If you ask me to take my agent hat off, I don’t think this deal is going to have any real impact on Alex Smith’s negotiation,” Corry said. “It’s two different (situations). The problem is, the Chiefs still aren’t going to want to want to pay him in that Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler range. He’s got the same problem Andy Dalton has.”

Like Dalton, Cincinnati’s quarterback, Smith is generally regarded as a second-tier quarterback in the same class as Stafford, Romo and Cutler, who are all making around $18 million per season.

That could prove to be a bit too rich for the Chiefs’ and Bengals’ liking, if that is indeed what Smith and Dalton — who will be free agents after the season — are asking for. Both teams also invested fifth-round draft picks in talented, developmental quarterbacks (Aaron Murray and A.J. McCarron) this year.

“Anything over $15 million a year on the average and $35 million in guarantees, the Chiefs should not want to do,” Corry said. “The problem is there’s nobody (making that) because the middle class (of quarterbacks) is gone. Matt Sanchez got cut. Matt Schaub got cut. You really have no middle class.”

This is one of the reasons the 49ers likely felt compelled to lock up Kaepernick, provided he can play well enough to keep the 49ers from extricating themselves from the deal.

“They don’t have a viable option,” Corry said. “Once they traded (Smith) away, they were all in on Kaepernick. They were like, ‘You’re the guy, it’s your ball and run with it.’ ”

Corry also noted that the 49ers could have waited a year to sign Kaepernick, but that might have cost them.

“They ran the risk of him going out and being Joe Flacco, where they win a Super Bowl and then he’s asking to be the highest-paid player in the league,” Corry said. “That’s just kind of the game you have to play with quarterbacks. If you have one that’s young and has a lot of potential, even if he hasn’t reached it, you’re going to have to overpay him.”

The Chiefs, on the other hand, may be willing to take their chances with Smith. Despite an 11-5 record last season, a tougher schedule and a younger supporting cast may conspire to make it difficult for Smith to duplicate his 2013 numbers, even with a respected offensive mind like Andy Reid calling the plays.

“I would tell him: ‘You want that money? Go out and justify it through your play this year,’ ” Corry said. “I’d gamble with him on that one. If he goes out and lights it up, that’s a nice problem to have because then you could always franchise him.”

Both the Chiefs and Smith have said there have been some discussions about a new contract. But Smith, who will make $7.5 million this season, has said he isn’t thinking about an extension and isn’t worried if he doesn’t get one before training camp starts.

“Smith kind of has a little bit of leverage too because KC gave up two second-round picks for him and you really don’t want to see someone walk after giving up two second-round picks,” Corry said. “But I don’t think Kansas City is going to be persuaded to make a substantial bump in their offer based on Kaepernick’s deal.”

el borracho · 06-05-2014, 11:55 PM

Difficult for Smith to Duplicate his 2013 numbers? As if his 2013 stats were something to crow about.

rico · 06-06-2014, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by el borracho

Difficult for Smith to Duplicate his 2013 numbers? As if his 2013 stats were something to crow about.

Yup.

Dunerdr · 06-06-2014, 05:16 AM

He should surpass 2013 numbers with ease even with a shit oline. The first 9 games he completed like 7 passes and one touchdown.

Chief Roundup · 06-06-2014, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

He should surpass 2013 numbers with ease even with a shit oline. The first 9 games he completed like 7 passes and one touchdown.

Close but it was actually 188 completions with 9TDs.

**Dave Lane** · 06-07-2014, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

He should surpass 2013 numbers with ease even with a shit oline. The first 9 games he completed like 7 passes and one touchdown.

Against teams that actually had a defense.

Marcellus · 06-07-2014, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Against teams that actually had a defense.

There was no huge difference in defenses played 1st half vs 2nd half of the season.

You hate is so blind you cant remember the difference between the QB's our defense faced and the defenses our offense faced 1st half vs 2nd half of the season.

One of those arguments has merit and the other is stupidity.

Eleazar · 06-06-2014, 06:05 AM

His numbers have been very consistent over the past several years.

Marcellus · 06-06-2014, 06:16 AM

Quote:

“If I represented Alex Smith,” said former agent Joel Corry, “I’d be telling the Chiefs that my numbers on where the quarterback market is and will be going is correct.”

Quote:

“But I don’t think Kansas City is going to be persuaded to make a substantial bump in their offer based on Kaepernick’s deal.

So basically this whole article means about as much as a CP thread.

Halfcan · 06-06-2014, 09:47 AM

Hard to pay a QB top money when he didn't throw a TD in a game for 1/4 of the season- during a stretch where the defense won the games for us. Yes he had an above average year and his stats evened out. But he also missed a wide open receiver down the side line in the Colts game that would have sealed a win. He choked at the very moment the game was on the line. That TD would have shifted the momentum back to us-instead of getting rolled. The D was gassed and were giving up huge plays. We needed that TD. Alex was brilliant the first half then disappeared.

Until Alex proves he can win a playoff game in KC- I wouldn't sign him to a new contract. Make him play out his contract and then franchise him for one year if need be. If he wins a playoff game and more-sign him and let him retire a chief. Hopefully in 2 years we can have someone that can step in and be the man to end the drought. Just my opinion.

Chief Roundup · 06-06-2014, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Hard to pay a QB top money when he didn't throw a TD in a game for 1/4 of the season- during a stretch where the defense won the games for us. Yes he had an above average year and his stats evened out. But he also missed a wide open receiver down the side line in the Colts game that would have sealed a win. He choked at the very moment the game was on the line. That TD would have shifted the momentum back to us-instead of getting rolled. The D was gassed and were giving up huge plays. We needed that TD. Alex was brilliant the first half then disappeared.

Until Alex proves he can win a playoff game in KC- I wouldn't sign him to a new contract. Make him play out his contract and then franchise him for one year if need be. If he wins a playoff game and more-sign him and let him retire a chief. Hopefully in 2 years we can have someone that can step in and be the man to end the drought. Just my opinion.

Never happened.

Discuss Thrower · 06-06-2014, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Never happened.

Because he didn't throw a TD in over 30% of games.

Halfcan · 06-06-2014, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Never happened.

You are right-it was worse than I stated.

Eagles 0
Titans 0
Raiders 0
Texans 0
Bills 0
Colts 0
Chargers 0

7 games in which Alex did not throw a TD. So 43% of the games Alex started he could not manage to throw a TD to help his team. So actually much higher than a quarter of the season in which I stated. My bad.

If a top QB is worth 20 million a year and Alex is only effective 43% of the time-that puts his number at 8,600,000 per year. Pretty much exactly were he is getting paid for next year. His ave salary is 8,416,667. So Alex is already getting more than what he is worth. His base is 7.5 mil with 500k in incentives. But since he got 9 million up front it pushes it to 8.4 according to Sports Illustrated.

The incentive is to lock him up-fear of the future-that we can't find a QB that is effective at least 57% of the games he starts while being paid 8.4 million to not throw TD's in 7 games including the last two losses to the Colts and Chargers.

Smart money is to let him finish this contract in which he will be slightly overpaid. And then Franchise him-if he does improve or god help us-we actually win a playoff game.

Discuss Thrower · 06-06-2014, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halfcan

You are right-it was worse than I stated.

Eagles 0
Titans 0
Raiders 0
Texans 0
Bills 0
Colts 0
Chargers 0

7 games in which Alex did not throw a TD. So 43% of the games Alex started he could not manage to throw a TD to help his team. So actually much higher than a quarter of the season in which I stated. My bad.

If a top QB is worth 20 million a year and Alex is only effective 43% of the time-that puts his number at 8,600,000 per year. Pretty much exactly were he is getting paid for next year. His ave salary is 8,416,667. So Alex is already getting more than what he is worth. His base is 7.5 mil with 500k in incentives. But since he got 9 million up front it pushes it to 8.4 according to Sports Illustrated.

The incentive is to lock him up-fear of the future-that we can't find a QB that is effective at least 57% of the games he starts while being paid 8.4 million to not throw TD's in 7 games including the last two losses to the Colts and Chargers.

Smart money is to let him finish this contract in which he will be slightly overpaid. And then Franchise him-if he does improve or god help us-we actually win a playoff game.

He was in shorts and a ballcap for the last San Diego game...

Halfcan · 06-06-2014, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

He was in shorts and a ballcap for the last San Diego game...

So he was not paid $525,000 to hold the clipboard?? Yes it was not his choice to sit- but he was still paid for it which further changes his numbers in his favor. Fact is he added nothing to that game but was still paid for it, much like a lot of the chiefs players last year. That is part of it. Alex has made what 57 million so far-so asking him to prove he can do better than not throwing a TD in 6 of the 15 games he started (40%) ineffective rate including one game on the bench and being ineffective in the last half of a horrible playoff loss-is not asking too much while he will still be cashing a fat 8 million check.

06-05-2014, 10:28 PM	Topic Starter
Tribal Warfare The Boom Boom Room Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Far Beyond Comprehension Casino cash: $772813	Paylor:How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s $126 million deal San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick went out of his way Wednesday to thank current Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, the man whose job he usurped two years ago. “I don’t think I would be at this point so quickly if he hadn’t been such a great mentor to me and helped me along with things,” Kaepernick, 26, said after news broke about his six-year, $126 million contract extension. But it’s also easy to think Kaepernick may have returned the favor by setting the market for Smith, who is seeking a new deal of his own. “If I represented Alex Smith,” said former agent Joel Corry, “I’d be telling the Chiefs that my numbers on where the quarterback market is and will be going is correct.” Kaepernick’s extension is actually worth just $13 million guaranteed but includes roster bonuses that can push that number up. There are also de-escalators, according to media reports, and the contract is constructed in such a way that the 49ers could get out of the deal after a few years with minimal consequence. Corry said the Chiefs might push for a similar structure, citing Kaepernick as a reference, though he suspects Smith’s agent, Tom Condon, would never go for it. “If you ask me to take my agent hat off, I don’t think this deal is going to have any real impact on Alex Smith’s negotiation,” Corry said. “It’s two different (situations). The problem is, the Chiefs still aren’t going to want to want to pay him in that Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler range. He’s got the same problem Andy Dalton has.” Like Dalton, Cincinnati’s quarterback, Smith is generally regarded as a second-tier quarterback in the same class as Stafford, Romo and Cutler, who are all making around $18 million per season. That could prove to be a bit too rich for the Chiefs’ and Bengals’ liking, if that is indeed what Smith and Dalton — who will be free agents after the season — are asking for. Both teams also invested fifth-round draft picks in talented, developmental quarterbacks (Aaron Murray and A.J. McCarron) this year. “Anything over $15 million a year on the average and $35 million in guarantees, the Chiefs should not want to do,” Corry said. “The problem is there’s nobody (making that) because the middle class (of quarterbacks) is gone. Matt Sanchez got cut. Matt Schaub got cut. You really have no middle class.” This is one of the reasons the 49ers likely felt compelled to lock up Kaepernick, provided he can play well enough to keep the 49ers from extricating themselves from the deal. “They don’t have a viable option,” Corry said. “Once they traded (Smith) away, they were all in on Kaepernick. They were like, ‘You’re the guy, it’s your ball and run with it.’ ” Corry also noted that the 49ers could have waited a year to sign Kaepernick, but that might have cost them. “They ran the risk of him going out and being Joe Flacco, where they win a Super Bowl and then he’s asking to be the highest-paid player in the league,” Corry said. “That’s just kind of the game you have to play with quarterbacks. If you have one that’s young and has a lot of potential, even if he hasn’t reached it, you’re going to have to overpay him.” The Chiefs, on the other hand, may be willing to take their chances with Smith. Despite an 11-5 record last season, a tougher schedule and a younger supporting cast may conspire to make it difficult for Smith to duplicate his 2013 numbers, even with a respected offensive mind like Andy Reid calling the plays. “I would tell him: ‘You want that money? Go out and justify it through your play this year,’ ” Corry said. “I’d gamble with him on that one. If he goes out and lights it up, that’s a nice problem to have because then you could always franchise him.” Both the Chiefs and Smith have said there have been some discussions about a new contract. But Smith, who will make $7.5 million this season, has said he isn’t thinking about an extension and isn’t worried if he doesn’t get one before training camp starts. “Smith kind of has a little bit of leverage too because KC gave up two second-round picks for him and you really don’t want to see someone walk after giving up two second-round picks,” Corry said. “But I don’t think Kansas City is going to be persuaded to make a substantial bump in their offer based on Kaepernick’s deal.”
Posts: 42,128

06-05-2014, 11:55 PM	#2
el borracho In Pat We Trust Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Albuquerque, NM Casino cash: $6239148	Difficult for Smith to Duplicate his 2013 numbers? As if his 2013 stats were something to crow about.
Posts: 11,838

06-06-2014, 05:16 AM	#4
Dunerdr MVP Join Date: Oct 2012 Casino cash: $2289677	He should surpass 2013 numbers with ease even with a shit oline. The first 9 games he completed like 7 passes and one touchdown. __________________ Adopt-A-Chief- Rachel Santschi
Posts: 10,819

06-06-2014, 06:05 AM	#8
Eleazar Beyond the Rapids Join Date: May 2003 Location: Langley, VA Casino cash: $-370000	His numbers have been very consistent over the past several years.
Posts: 80,659

06-06-2014, 09:47 AM	#10
Halfcan In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7327995	Hard to pay a QB top money when he didn't throw a TD in a game for 1/4 of the season- during a stretch where the defense won the games for us. Yes he had an above average year and his stats evened out. But he also missed a wide open receiver down the side line in the Colts game that would have sealed a win. He choked at the very moment the game was on the line. That TD would have shifted the momentum back to us-instead of getting rolled. The D was gassed and were giving up huge plays. We needed that TD. Alex was brilliant the first half then disappeared. Until Alex proves he can win a playoff game in KC- I wouldn't sign him to a new contract. Make him play out his contract and then franchise him for one year if need be. If he wins a playoff game and more-sign him and let him retire a chief. Hopefully in 2 years we can have someone that can step in and be the man to end the drought. Just my opinion.
Posts: 43,200