ProFootballFocus. QBs in Focus: Alex Smith

[ViperVisor]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...us-alex-smith/

Yuuuuppp....

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

So, in your opinion - what is the truth?

IMO, the truth is that Alex Smith is a middle-of-the-road, average QB.

There is no truth. Just interpretation. What I see is a middle-of-the-road, average QB who has given us reasonable doubt that maybe he's actually better than that. For now, you have the upper hand because he's average until he can consistently prove he's better than that. But we have an unusual case of a player later in his career who completely transformed his game.

It's hard to dispute that Alex Smith in the second half of the season was playing more aggressive than I have ever seen him in either a Chiefs or 49ers uniform. I hope that's the case but it's a gamble.

By better, I'm not saying he'll ever be elite. But he could easily become a top 10 QB if he continues playing like this.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

What I saw out of Smith in Indy was much better than middle of the road.

By that logic, Chase Daniel and his merry cast of backups should all be starters this year. They played a team who won a playoff game to the wire.

They showed it in ONE game.

Unfortunately for Alex, that Indy game is an outlier when it comes to his career. It's his best game out of a group of some above average games, a LOT of very average games, and some piss poor games in his career.

It would take too much effort to find his "median" game, but considering he's started 93 games including playoffs - he's only thrown for over 200 yards (low benchmark) 43 times. Not even half. So his median game is probably around 185-190 yards passing.

That's about as average as you get.

[hometeam]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

There is no truth. Just interpretation. What I see is a middle-of-the-road, average QB who has given us reasonable doubt that maybe he's actually better than that. For now, you have the upper hand because he's average until he can consistently prove he's better than that. But we have an unusual case of a player later in his career who completely transformed his game.

It's hard to dispute that Alex Smith in the second half of the season was playing more aggressive than I have ever seen him in either a Chiefs or 49ers uniform. I hope that's the case but it's a gamble.

By better, I'm not saying he'll ever be elite. But he could easily become a top 10 QB if he continues playing like this.

He had one game where he 'gave reasonable confidence' he was better than middle of the road.

He had 6 games where he 'gave reasonable confidence' he was worse.

Which statistic inspires more confidence in actually determining quality?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

There is no truth. Just interpretation. What I see is a middle-of-the-road, average QB who has given us reasonable doubt that maybe he's actually better than that. For now, you have the upper hand because he's average until he can consistently prove he's better than that. But we have an unusual case of a player later in his career who completely transformed his game.

It's hard to dispute that Alex Smith in the second half of the season was playing more aggressive than I have ever seen him in either a Chiefs or 49ers uniform. I hope that's the case but it's a gamble.

Reasonable doubt?

He's thrown for over 250 yards in 19 of his 93 starts, including the playoffs. That's around 2 games per season he's shown to be "better than that."

Even if you want to act as if his SF days don't count, he only did it 6 times in 17 games last year. (and they weren't all at the end of the year) I'm not sure how doing something 35% of the time shows "reasonable doubt."

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Reasonable doubt?

He's thrown for over 250 yards in 19 of his 93 starts, including the playoffs. That's around 2 games per season he's shown to be "better than that."

Even if you want to act as if his SF days don't count, he only did it 6 times in 17 games last year. (and they weren't all at the end of the year) I'm not sure how doing something 35% of the time shows "reasonable doubt."

Exactly...and lets see if he is closer to the 35% or to his earlier Sf days as he is pulling sod out of his helmet every other play...as he has to come from behind every game while being sacked 3+ times a game and hit and hurried a bunch more.

Oh and that we wont be getting tossed 8 backups out of the 11 wins, along with almost every win (every win?) being against a losing team.

I would ****ing wargasm if we got a playoff win this season but unfortunately i don't see us even getting to the playoffs. I really didn't like this plan from the outset...but this season will be the real litmus.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Reasonable doubt?

He's thrown for over 250 yards in 19 of his 93 starts, including the playoffs. That's around 2 games per season he's shown to be "better than that."

Even if you want to act as if his SF days don't count, he only did it 6 times in 17 games last year. (and they weren't all at the end of the year) I'm not sure how doing something 35% of the time shows "reasonable doubt."

The reasonable doubt is the result of the fact that he started to attack downfield more in the last 6 games of the season.

I highly doubt he'll match his production in that Indy game all that often, but if those last 6 games are the first steps toward progessing to being more aggressive on a consistent basis, then his production should be on an upward trend.

The problem is that we don't know that he will continue to progress.

It's entirely possoble he'll be back to the checkdown king.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I'll respectfully disagree.

6 games in a 93 start career is an insanely small sample size. He's been aggressive before in games/spurts, then reverted back to same-old-Alex.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I'll respectfully disagree.

6 games in a 93 start career is an insanely small sample size. He's been aggressive before in games/spurts, then reverted back to same-old-Alex.

Like I said, for now you have the upper hand. The majority of his career has been middle of the road, overly conservative. I don't agree that we've seen a spurt quite like this from him so let's hope that it's a trend. While I have no idea what future Alex Smith looks like, I actually have quite a bit of confidence that Reid isn't going to settle for him checking down on every single play.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by hometeam

He had one game where he 'gave reasonable confidence' he was better than middle of the road.

He had 6 games where he 'gave reasonable confidence' he was worse.

Which statistic inspires more confidence in actually determining quality?

Statistics is as much about history as it is about recency. What's most important is that his strong performances have come recently and they were consistently stronger than the Smith we're used to.

Smith started out with 9 overrated games. And then closed the season with 7 games that were actually very strong. That's a trend. He could easily go back to his conservative ways. But it's given at least some hope.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I'll respectfully disagree.

6 games in a 93 start career is an insanely small sample size. He's been aggressive before in games/spurts, then reverted back to same-old-Alex.

It is a small sample size, which is the reason I have doubts.

However, while he has had games/spurts, he had never put together a string of 6 consecutive aggressive games together before.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Same shit different day.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Same shit different day.

Shhh. We're actually having a good discussion.

For someone that constantly complains about the Alex Smith talk, you sure spend an awful lot of time in those threads.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

So, in your opinion - what is the truth?

IMO, the truth is that Alex Smith is a middle-of-the-road, average QB.

Yes, for most of his career he was... but change started to occur once he got a real coach, his second year with that coach he was playing excellent football.

He gets hurt and benched.

He gets a new coach, new team, new system (same for every player) and had a career year... I just think its pretty impressive to have a career year under those circumstances.

If he accomplished that in his first year, its not beyond the bounds of reason to expect something even better in his second year (same for every player)... the good news is that we're about to discover the truth.

If he's strictly a middling game manager, we'll know it for sure this year, cant wait to see...

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Easy 6

Yes, for most of his career he was... but change started to occur once he got a real coach, his second year with that coach he was playing excellent football.

He gets hurt and benched.

He gets a new coach, new team, new system (same for every player) and had a career year... I just think its pretty impressive to have a career year under those circumstances.

If he accomplished that in his first year, its not beyond the bounds of reason to expect something even better in his second year (same for every player)... the good news is that we're about to discover the truth.

If he's strictly a middling game manager, we'll know it for sure this year, cant wait to see...

His second year under Harbaugh, he was extremely efficient, but he was still a conservative QB who wasn't forcing defenses to defend the entire field.

[Just Passin' By]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Reasonable doubt?

He's thrown for over 250 yards in 19 of his 93 starts, including the playoffs. That's around 2 games per season he's shown to be "better than that."

Even if you want to act as if his SF days don't count, he only did it 6 times in 17 games last year. (and they weren't all at the end of the year) I'm not sure how doing something 35% of the time shows "reasonable doubt."

Why are you using passing yardage as the marker of how good Smith has shown himself to be?