Restating the obvious, Dorsey learned from Ted Thompson

[ct]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/04/03/packers-prefer-compensatory-picks-over-unrestricted-free-agents/


Packers General Manager Ted Thompson has a formula for building his team, and he’s sticking with it.

Thompson believes in building through the draft, not free agency, and that includes acquiring more draft picks by declining to sign unrestricted free agents. In the NFL, teams that lose more in free agency than they acquire get compensatory picks, and the Packers’ moves in free agency this year indicate that they’re already thinking about acquiring compensatory picks for next year. The NFL doesn’t public the precise formula used to determine compensatory picks, but the simple version is that if the unrestricted free agents you lose are better, higher-paid players than the unrestricted free agents you sign, then the NFL will compensate you the following year with compensatory picks.

As the Green Bay Press-Gazette points out, even the one big name the Packers have signed this offseason, Julius Peppers, was a free agent because he was released by the Bears, not because his previous contract expired. That means he won’t count as an unrestricted free agent addition for the Packers for the purpose of determining their compensatory picks next year.

Last year the Packers lost two key players, receiver Greg Jennings and linebacker Erik Walden, as unrestricted free agents. And the Packers didn’t sign any unrestricted free agents last year. As a result, this year they’re getting an extra third-round pick and an extra fifth-round pick as compensatory selections.

This year the Packers have again not signed away any players whose previous contract expired, but they have lost four players, center Evan Dietrich-Smith, receiver James Jones, defensive lineman C.J. Wilson and offensive lineman Marshall Newhouse. That means the Packers will almost certainly do well when the compensatory picks are passed out a year from now.

Building through the draft and declining to overspend in free agency would be a smart strategy even if the NFL didn’t have a compensatory pick system to reward frugal teams. But when compensatory picks are added to the equation, it’s easy to see why Thompson declines to go after free agents. The Packers have been successful this way. It’s surprising more teams haven’t copied them.


May not be popular here but Dorsey is doing exactly the same thing Thompson and Ozzie Newsome are doing, stockpile draft picks and let UFAs get overpaid elsewhere.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Like I told someone yesterday, that's one of the few benefits of being cynical about the Chiefs.

I wasn't shocked or outraged when they lost. It was a little hard to believe they were losing the lead as it was happening but I walked away from the game with no feeling whatsoever. I just went about my day.

I'm not cynical about the Chiefs... I just don't put any personal value on a sportsball team. Why should I get all emotional about it? Do I have any control over the outcome?

So yeah... I just went about my day. I mean what the hell else do people do? Throw remotes through TV's? Beat up their wife?

It's a ****ing game. I tend to emotionally invest in things I have some element of control or influence over. Watching football is how I kill 3 hours on a sunday.

[mcaj22]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

This post is simply wrong and completely ruins any opinion you have on this subject moving forward.

Yea it's wrong of me to automatically assume a plan that John Dorsey is the next genius GM like in Seattle. Where I have to sit here and wait and just assume he will hit homeruns on his next 3 years worth of drafts and actually make smart moves in FA.

Yeah, I'd rather be wrong about my post than try and predict the future.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by mcaj22

Yea it's wrong of me to automatically assume a plan that John Dorsey is the next genius GM like in Seattle. Where I have to sit here and wait and just assume he will hit homeruns on his next 3 years worth of drafts and actually make smart moves in FA.

Yeah, I'd rather be wrong about my post than try and predict the future.

I am in full agreement with you and htis that the big thing to be skeptical about is execution. I just don't understand all the skepticism that even if they draft well (don't have to even hit home runs... just have to draft well consecutively), why this isn't a strategy that will work. Seattle is an extreme example of it working, but there are plenty of teams with more realistic success stories.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

I thought that was pretty common knowledge, wasn't he in going into year 13 of his 5 year plan?First time I had heard that, or else I forgot about it
Thank you for that. I have stated all of my reasons why I believe it, no point in rehashing them. I do remember Clark saying, when Herm took over IIRC, that he wanted to draft and develop a QB. I believed him then.

Yeah but wasn't Lamar still in charge? He wasn't firing Carl. DV was brought in to try and win a SB. Didn't work out but they put together a great offense with Trent Green and company.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I am in full agreement with you and htis that the big thing to be skeptical about is execution. I just don't understand all the skepticism that even if they draft well (don't have to even hit home runs... just have to draft well consecutively), why this isn't a strategy that will work. Seattle is an extreme example of it working, but there are plenty of teams with more realistic success stories.

Unfortunately they haven't drafted well at this point, so it's kind of difficult to assume that they will in the future. It's not a lot of evidence so far, obviously, but it's all we have to go on.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

I thought that was pretty common knowledge, wasn't he in going into year 13 of his 5 year plan?First time I had heard that, or else I forgot about it
Thank you for that. I have stated all of my reasons why I believe it, no point in rehashing them. I do remember Clark saying, when Herm took over IIRC, that he wanted to draft and develop a QB. I believed him then.

It felt to me like Peterson was making a lot of decisions Herm was not too happy about. Herm sounded like he really wanted to start Croyle, not Huard. Peterson signed a huge contract for LJ, even though it seemed like Herm was not really a big fan of LJ in the locker room. For as much shit as Herm got, I think in terms of personnel, he was one of the few that got it right. He seemed the most eager to make gutsy bets on young QBs and was one of the few with the common sense to rebuild. If only the guy could actually coach too.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Unfortunately they haven't drafted well at this point, so it's kind of difficult to assume that they will in the future. It's not a lot of evidence so far, obviously, but it's all we have to go on.

They haven't done well in free agency either (2013 or in our 20 year history), but that hasn't stopped people from screaming up and down that that's the only route we should be taking.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

They haven't done well in free agency either (2013 or in our 20 year history), but that hasn't stopped people from screaming up and down that that's the only route we should be taking.

Literally nobody has 'screamed up and down that that's the only route we should be taking".

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Unfortunately they haven't drafted well at this point, so it's kind of difficult to assume that they will in the future. It's not a lot of evidence so far, obviously, but it's all we have to go on.

They get an Incomplete.

I think you really need 3 years to judge a GM. 2 Years for a HC.

By then you know how a team is trending...

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by Rausch

They get an Incomplete.

I think you really need 3 years to judge a GM. 2 Years for a HC.

By then you know how a team is trending...

I agree completely. I also don't think you can judge a draft, either individually or as a class, for the same 3 years. But like I said, the only information I/we can go on right now is what we have. At least if the intention is to have a discussion based on reality.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

They haven't done well in free agency either (2013 or in our 20 year history), but that hasn't stopped people from screaming up and down that that's the only route we should be taking.

completely wrong

That's the real point, we should be taking ALL routers available to us.

Not just the draft
Not just free agency
Not just trades

If you want to win a super bowl then you have to use everything.

Part of the reason this FA was so frustrating. We tried everything last year and now we aren't.



but you don't want to hear it, you're trying to be positive. I get it.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

completely wrong

That's the real point, we should be taking ALL routers available to us.

Not just the draft
Not just free agency
Not just trades

If you want to win a super bowl then you have to use everything.

Part of the reason this FA was so frustrating. We tried everything last year and now we aren't.



but you don't want to hear it, you're trying to be positive. I get it.

The same exact thing could be said for the 2011 Seahawks. Or the 2012 and 2013 Patriots.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

It felt to me like Peterson was making a lot of decisions Herm was not too happy about. Herm sounded like he really wanted to start Croyle, not Huard. Peterson signed a huge contract for LJ, even though it seemed like Herm was not really a big fan of LJ in the locker room. For as much shit as Herm got, I think in terms of personnel, he was one of the few that got it right. He seemed the most eager to make gutsy bets on young QBs and was one of the few with the common sense to rebuild. If only the guy could actually coach too.

That is pretty much how I remember it.

Herm wanted to gut and rebuild, and Carl wanted to get the team back to 10-6.

Herm ended up going over Carl's head straight to Hunt.

Herm gutted the team, had a crappy record and Clark bailed on the rebuild and fired Herm.

The 2008 draft class was pretty darn good even if they did have a bunch of picks. They ended up winning the Jared Allen trade that I was so pissed about at the time.

Herm didn't ever take responsibility for any of the negatives, that was on everyone else. But he was first in line for the attaboys

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Literally nobody has 'screamed up and down that that's the only route we should be taking".

There are lots of people who believe we should be all in on free agency. That means that: 1) rather than let young guys compete for a starting job, we should instead look to free agency to buy an expensive surefire replacement; 2) That we are forcing a 2-3 year window so small that by the time any young guys develop, this team will need to tear it apart and start over again.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

There are lots of people who believe we should be all in on free agency. That means that: 1) rather than let young guys compete for a starting job, we should instead look to free agency to buy an expensive surefire replacement; 2) That we are forcing a 2-3 year window so small that by the time any young guys develop, this team will need to tear it apart and start over again.

You're trying to put words in peoples' mouths that they just aren't saying.