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Old 02-02-2012, 07:18 PM  
Saul Good Saul Good is offline
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:20 PM   #631
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I think it would have been a nine point lead with under two minutes left. It's very uncommon for teams to come back from that kind of deficit. In fact, at that point, it can often come down to fouling and hoping the other team can miss FTs.
Except Texas almost pulled it off against Mizzou five days earlier. Any lead under 10 is not safe with two minutes left, with the three point shot in play. Teams come back form 7,8,9 points down with two minutes more often than you think. All it takes is making a three, getting a stop and making another three. A nine point lead is a three point lead in the blink of an eye. Really, for someone who is such a basketball "expert", you would know that. Such comebacks are on sportscenter with fair regularity.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:25 PM   #632
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Except Texas almost pulled it off against Mizzou five days earlier. Any lead under 10 is not safe with two minutes left, with the three point shot in play. Teams come back form 7,8,9 points down with two minutes more often than you think. All it takes is making a three, getting a stop and making another three. A nine point lead is a three point lead in the blink of an eye. Really, for someone who is such a basketball "expert", you would know that. Such comebacks are on sportscenter with fair regularity.
Not safe, sure, but a comeback is still uncommon. The vast majority of the time, teams don't come back from such deficits at the NCAA level. Of course, they don't show the endings of games where teams simply coast to victory on SportsCenter...they're not as interesting.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:28 PM   #633
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MU did not get outplayed the whole game.

They got outplayed for a few minutes in the second half that got them down by 8. Other than that, they were neck and neck the whole game. Did you see how many lead changes?
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:30 PM   #634
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Not safe, sure, but a comeback is still uncommon. The vast majority of the time, teams don't come back from such deficits at the NCAA level. Of course, they don't show the endings of games where teams simply coast to victory on SportsCenter...they're not as interesting.
I would be interested to see the statistic on that, for sure. Uncommon implies less 2-3% of the time, and I think the percentage would be higher, but not necessarily above 5%.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:31 PM   #635
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KCC knows more about basketball than you guys. Hell, he knows more about ELITE college basketball than Bill Self. Just take his word for it.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:32 PM   #636
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KCC knows more about basketball than you guys. Hell, he knows more about ELITE college basketball than Bill Self. Just take his word for it.
I know more about basketball than you certainly. I'm pretty safe saying that.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:35 PM   #637
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Well atleast you guys lose almost the entire team next year. Ill say Elite 8. Not a bad strategy though. Looks like they're recruiting more 4-year guys for next year.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:40 PM   #638
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I would be interested to see the statistic on that, for sure. Uncommon implies less 2-3% of the time, and I think the percentage would be higher, but not necessarily above 5%.
Ken Pomeroy measures win probability every game as its played. KU had a 90% chance of winning the game with a 8 point lead and a little over 2 minutes left.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:41 PM   #639
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Well atleast you guys lose almost the entire team next year. Ill say Elite 8. Not a bad strategy though. Looks like they're recruiting more 4-year guys for next year.
With Withey, EJ, and Releford still there, KU should be fine next year. They usually are.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:42 PM   #640
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general comment for Mizzou thread.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:56 PM   #641
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Ken Pomeroy measures win probability every game as its played. KU had a 90% chance of winning the game with a 8 point lead and a little over 2 minutes left.
So 10 percent of the time they lose. I would not call that uncommon. I would say that occasionally ku loses there. 90% in that situation, how many close games are played a week in college bball. They are 200ish teams, and each team plays about twice a week, so that is around 200 games a week...out of those two hundred games, how many of them are lead by one team at around 8 points or so with two minutes left? I would think that situation would be fairly common. 100 times or so? That would mean that comeback happens 10 times a week or so. More than I thought.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:59 PM   #642
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla View Post
general comment for Mizzou thread.
My bad, I didn't even realize which thread I was posting in. The same discussion is going on in both of them.
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Old 02-05-2012, 09:02 PM   #643
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Is he STILL bitching about last night's game?

Someone seriously needs a life adjustment.
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Old 02-05-2012, 09:04 PM   #644
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Is he STILL bitching about last night's game?

Someone seriously needs a life adjustment.
24 hours. No breaks. I recommend switching to decaf.
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Old 02-05-2012, 09:10 PM   #645
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Anybody that describes what I've posted as bitching/complaining/whining really isn't paying attention.

I understand completely that home crowds influence officials and that home cooking is a part of the sport, I've only been explaining that.
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