Is Albert Wilson... good now!?!?

[carcosa]

Tonight's big catch was huge and hugely impressive, but Albert Wilson has been doing little things right all season. This is surprising, considering he has been, uh, not very good at football for most of his career to this point.

He's clearly not as good as the Holy Trinity, and he's probably still the 3rd best WR behind Conley, but... is Albert friggin' Wilson actually good now!?!?

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I really don't think he does. He's the same role player and credible receiver he's always been, Smith just trusts him a bit more and he's been asked to do more after sliding into the slot role that Hill vacated by going to the Z.

Let's not act like he's making the diving plays people were always so hard on him for not making. And I've never agreed with the folks that say he avoids contact; he's generally been a willing player.

I disagree completely. It was not just about the diving plays. He simply was never reliable, hence why Alex didn’t trust him.

For example, he’s so much better on those bubble screens it’s crazy. Also, he wouldn’t have made those two big plays he made yesterday in years past. If you don’t see a difference in Wilson, I have no idea what you’ve been watching.

[lcarus]

A role player that occasionally makes a big play and seems to be good for team morale.

[KCrockaholic]

He's surprised me in a way that I didn't think he was better than Conley, and I think to this point he's proven that he is a better pure football player than combine warrior Conley.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

He's surprised me in a way that I didn't think he was better than Conley, and I think to this point he's proven that he is a better pure football player than combine warrior Conley.

Wilson fits the dink and dunk offense perfectly. Conley is a downfield receiver who will look significantly better with a QB like Mahomes.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I disagree completely. It was not just about the diving plays. He simply was never reliable, hence why Alex didn’t trust him.

For example, he’s so much better on those bubble screens it’s crazy. Also, he wouldn’t have made those two big plays he made yesterday in years past. If you don’t see a difference in Wilson, I have no idea what you’ve been watching.

Smith didn't trust him because Smith doesn't trust anyone.

His catch rate is up a little bit, yes but that is a product of small sample sizes. He had 3 drops in 51 targets last year; he has 2 in 41 this year. If he drops another one over his next 10 targets, his numbers will align virtually step for step. There's effectively no difference in his hands.

And no, he wasn't someone that was jaking plays over the middle. He had one bad play and perception became reality with the guy.

And he isn't GOOD now. He's still not particularly fast, he's not large and he's not all that quick (though he's above average). He's largely still a JAG, though he might be a slightly better one. He's always been game and it shows on plays like the 1st down late. He has good vision but he had that last year; he made some nice plays on screens. He's just a competent depth receiver.

But that's who he was last year as well. The problem with Wilson last year wasn't Wilson, it was the people that expected a UDFA from a small school to be a superstar. He never was, he isn't now. But he was a credible, versatile depth player that made some plays for us. That's exactly who he has been this year but has shown more with additional opportunity.

The people that so badly wanted him cut last off-season were wrong. Hell, the folks that got mad about him getting a relatively paltry RFA deal were wrong. And anyone that thinks he's suddenly a significantly better player is also wrong - he's pretty much the same guy.

[staylor26]

He’s about to have the best year of his career statsically despite missing a few games due to injury and starting the season way down the pecking order. He’s clearly been more efficient with his targets. It matches up with just about everybody feeling that he’s been better this year than in years past.

But you’re right, no difference at all.

[The Franchise]

He'll be a decent #4 WR if we re-sign him. Hill, Robinson and Conley are your top 3 with Mahomes at QB.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

He’s about to have the best year of his career statsically despite missing a few games due to injury and starting the season way down the pecking order. He’s clearly been more efficient with this targets. It matches up with just about everybody feeling that he’s been better this year than in years past.

But you’re right, no difference at all.

Oh well if everybody was unfairly castigating him in years past and now they 'feel' that he's better, that's clearly dispositive.

That's my point - everyone was WRONG about the guy in years past. The issue isn't that he's gotten significantly better, it's people such as yourself who called the guy unreliable because he had 3 drops last season were simply never giving him due credit.

Saying 'clearly' and citing the impressions of fans doesn't make anything true. And ignoring the fact that he's been given a greater role with Hill's ascension to the Z makes little sense either.

He was never a bad player. He isn't presently a good player. He's just a solid NFL contributor who's doing more because he's been asked to do more. Good for him.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh well if everybody was unfairly castigating him in years past and now they 'feel' that he's better, that's clearly dispositive.

That's my point - everyone was WRONG about the guy in years past. The issue isn't that he's gotten significantly better, it's people such as yourself who called the guy unreliable because he had 3 drops last season were simply never giving him due credit.

Saying 'clearly' and citing the impressions of fans doesn't make anything true. And ignoring the fact that he's been given a greater role with Hill's ascension to the Z makes little sense either.

He was never a bad player. He isn't presently a good player. He's just a solid NFL contributor who's doing more because he's been asked to do more. Good for him.

2015 was his best year statistically when he started 12 games had almost 60 targets and came away with 35 catches for 451 yards and 2 TD’s.

With almost 20 fewer targets this year, he already has 28 catches for 356 yards and 3 TD’s. This is with significantly fewer starts/games also.

[DJ's left nut]

Look at 2015 - before Hill and when Conley was barely a glint in anyone's eye. Wilson was asked to do virtually the same thing he's being asked to do right now.

What were the results? 3 drops in 57 targets (virtually identical drop rate). A better Y/C and more big plays (6 of 20+; 3 of 40+ vs. 3 and 1 this year). A virtually identical yards per game as well.

Albert Wilson isn't any different than he was in '16 - he isn't any different than he was in '15. He was simply never given any credit for being the solid player that he's been for almost his entire time here. And when he's been in this exact role in the past (2015) he performed virtually identically.

He's the same damn guy.

[penchief]

He's become pretty reliable on those bubble screens. It seems like he always picks up 8 or 9 tough yards in traffic. His quickness makes the difference on those plays, IMO.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

2015 was his best year statistically when he started 12 games had almost 60 targets and came away with 35 catches for 451 yards and 2 TD’s.

With almost 20 fewer targets this year, he already has 28 catches for 356 yards and 3 TD’s. This is with significantly fewer starts/games also.

Yes, he has a slightly higher catch% this year. But so does the entire team - Smith's simply been a little better this year than he was in '15. That's a reflection on the offense writ large.

And again - he had more big plays in '15 and wasn't dropping any more passes. His catch% has as much to do with the quality of targets as anything. His TDs aren't coming any differently this year either - he's housing screens. Okay - he's ALWAYS been able to do that. He's demonstrated that skill several times over the years.

Are you really basing your entire argument on a slightly improved catch% that happens to correspond with an across the board improvement in Smith's completion%? Hell, even if you want to concede some improvement, it's not the night and day distinction you're claiming it is. He might be percentage points better. Might be - I won't even concede that.

He damn sure isn't a 'totally different player'. You're just absolutely wrong. At his very best, he's a slight bump better than he's ever been; than he was 2 years ago even. You just never gave him appropriate credit in the past.

[Beef Supreme]

He is basically the same guy, but he has made a few big plays in clutch moments this year, so perception is higher. Some great catches just when we really needed them. I don't think it's wrong for that to raise his stock for a lot of people. But at the same time, they were wrong for wanting to cut him last year.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yes, he has a slightly higher catch% this year. But so does the entire team - Smith's simply been a little better this year than he was in '15. That's a reflection on the offense writ large.

And again - he had more big plays in '15 and wasn't dropping any more passes. His catch% has as much to do with the quality of targets as anything. His TDs aren't coming any differently this year either - he's housing screens. Okay - he's ALWAYS been able to do that. He's demonstrated that skill several times over the years.

Are you really basing your entire argument on a slightly improved catch% that happens to correspond with an across the board improvement in Smith's completion%? Hell, even if you want to concede some improvement, it's not the night and day distinction you're claiming it is. He might be percentage points better. Might be - I won't even concede that.

He damn sure isn't a 'totally different player'. You're just absolutely wrong. At his very best, he's a slight bump better than he's ever been; than he was 2 years ago even. You just never gave him appropriate credit in the past.

You said it yourself, he’s playing a different position this year than in years past. He’s not getting the opportunity to go downfield near as much as he did in 2015. He started 7 more games and even with significantly less YPC, he’s still going to have a better year staysically in 2017 with significantly fewer oppurtunities. If yesterday were any indication, he would probably have a lot more of those big plays with more downfield targets.

For the record, I never hated Wilson he just frustrated the **** out of me and I never had a good feeling when he was targeted in clutch situations because he always seemed to come up short. This year, he’s been the opposite of that. My point was everybody clearly feels this way, and there’s a reason for that. That’s the biggest reason why I feel like he’s a completely different player.

[DJ's left nut]

Additionally - cute trick with the 'almost 20 fewer targets'. If you're going to work in sample sizes that small; try not to boost your ratios by 25% to fudge the numbers, chief.

Take his numbers from this year, pro-rate them to the 57 targets he had in '15 and you have 39/494 vs. 35/451. Okay - a 10% improvement.

Meanwhile Alex Smith already has more passing yards through 13 games than he had through 16 games in '15. That 10% improvement is easily attributable to an overall increase in the efficiency of the passing game in general.

It's comical that this argument is even being attempted. No, he absolutely isn't a 'totally different player'. At his very best he's a guy that's been in the system 4 years and is showing marginal improvement because of it. It's far more accurate to say, however, that this is the same guy he's been for 3 years and he's simply playing in an offense that is working better now.