NFL Draft Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

**Rausch** · 03-23-2013, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...

Fat Elvis · 03-23-2013, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...

People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively believe our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.

**Dave Lane** · 03-23-2013, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively because our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.

I will roll the dice on the most important position in sports EVERY time till I have a true franchise QB then continue to take shots at one every draft at some point if possible.

Fat Elvis · 03-23-2013, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

I will roll the dice on the most important position in sports EVERY time till I have a true franchise QB then continue to take shots at one every draft at some point if possible.

I don't know what you mean by this. I think everyone has a different definition of "true franchise quarterback."

How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"?

How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying.

I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds.

What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means.

I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it.

Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why?

Crush · 03-23-2013, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

I don't know what you mean by this. I think everyone has a different definition of "true franchise quarterback."

How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"?

How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying.

I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds.

What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means.

I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it.

Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why?

You give the guy at least three years to develop. Brad Johnson is not a franchise QB. McNabb was a franchise QB. A franchise QB is any QB that is able to take the team on his back and lead them to victory.

Fat Elvis · 03-23-2013, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crush

You give the guy at least three years to develop. Brad Johnson is not a franchise QB. McNabb was a franchise QB. A franchise QB is any QB that is able to take the team on his back and lead them to victory.

Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.

**Dave Lane** · 03-23-2013, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.

Doesn't matter

Crush · 03-23-2013, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Brad Johnson has a Super Bowl ring, McNabb doesn't.

That's because Brad Johnson rode the coattails of an historic defense. By your logic, Dan Marino is not a franchise QB.

**Rausch** · 03-23-2013, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick.

It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...

Fat Elvis · 03-23-2013, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.

Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...

No, they don't. That is the whole point.

**Rausch** · 03-23-2013, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

No, they don't. That is the whole point.

Yes, they do.

At most you'll go one draft without a franchise guy drafted but most years there's at least one.

The deciding factor is if you're both luck and smart enough to identify that guy...

DTLB58 · 03-23-2013, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

It doesn't matter if it's no 1 or no 71 if you make the right pick you're a genius.

Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin.

Alex proves that average out.

THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts.

All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's.

The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables.

If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

**Rausch** · 03-23-2013, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB58

All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

**Dave Lane** · 03-23-2013, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

So your theory and belief is that there will not be any QBs in this draft that will be any good or our crack team of talent spotters would know? Therefore we need to draft a tackle at 1.1 or where ever to replace the "Probowl caliber LT" (Andy's words not mine) we hope to get a 2nd for?

Brilliant!!

Ace Gunner · 03-23-2013, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Exact thing I was thinking after I read his paper. All these numbers are great but if you just have the right people in place that can spot talent and know the coach can work with them, that's what you need.

It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.

yes, and even when you do, you have to be firing on all cylinders so to speak and a lil luck usually finds it's way to you in the game of football. I am a NYG fan and the recent run on championships has been largely with the same team, whether win it all or lose out early. so there's that. someone mentioned a 9 - 7 giants champ team, it goes to show a lot of aspects about success as a football team.