Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

[Buzzsaw]

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen



Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by kysirsoze

@ weak avatar smack

That wasn't "avatar smack"......

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I know, I get it... I'm just sayin'.

I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Shocking the only person who gets it isn't a Chiefs fan. If I could rep, I would rep you for not being a ****ing moron like majority of the locals around here.

[007]

gee,those stats look strikingly familiar to cdcox's.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

It should be a fun 2nd half to the season, (at least for me).

No.

Not likely...

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.

I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

had to edit b/c I can't post pics

No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

[Gadzooks]

Originally Posted by kysirsoze

I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?

I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

[Fumblerooski]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

I wasn't asking you to dumb it down.. I'm asking you to smarten it up...

Being asked to die however, is inexcusable. Unless they politely asked you to die in a fire... If so, it'd be great if you took their advice.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

Read the ****ing table, dick hole. No one here would predict a SB for the Chiefs, you reerun.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

No, we'll get there.

We will.

The challenge, as always, will be accomplishing something once we do...

[ModSocks]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

When are you going to stop being a troll?

No one here is calling the Chiefs Superbowl contenders. Where do you pull this shit from? And winning the division doesn't make us Playoff caliber? According to the NFL, it does.

You are really reaching for shit dude. Chill out.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.

[Hydrae]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

It's been a damn fun ride so far this year as well. Time will tell if it will all come crashing down, but it sure seems as if this team has been built and is being coached in a fashion to possibly make it to the playoffs much earlier than expected. Maybe even this season.