Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

[DaFace]

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

[Toby Waller]

Originally Posted by Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan

Ostweiler to start against Bengals, Manning to be inactive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...to-be-inactive

So, does this help or hurt Cincy's chances?

youre forgetting the whole drama/turmoil factor

[NJChiefsFan]

I went through the Common Games, SOV ect, pretty sure this is all correct.

1 on 1 tiebreakers.

KC wins all 1 on 1 tiebreakers(Would always be 5 seed tying PIT or NYJ, 3 seed if tying DEN)
DEN and NYJ tie at 10 wins, NYJ wins on Conference Record(DEN @ KC)
DEN and NYJ tie at 11 wins, NYJ wins on Conference Record(DEN @ KC)
DEN and PIT tie at 10 wins, PIT wins on H to H(PIT @ KC since this 1 on 1 only happens if NYJ are 11-5 and 5 seed)
PIT and NYJ tie at 10 wins, PIT wins on Common Games(PIT @ KC if KC won division, KC @ HOU if DEN won division)


Three team tie-breakers

KC 11-5 DEN 11-5 NYJ 11-5
then KC wins division, and NYJ gets 5 seed on Conference Record

DEN @ KC
NYJ @ HOU


DEN 10-6 NYJ 10-6 PIT 10-6(KC being 11-5 or 10-6 yields same results)
DEN is out based on Conference record, PIT 5 seed based on Common Games, NYJ 6

NYJ @ KC
PIT @ HOU


DEN 10-6 NYJ 10-6 KC 10-6(PIT finishes 9-7)
KC wins division, NYJ 5 seed on Conference record, DEN 6

DEN @ KC
NYJ @ HOU


*If DEN wins tomorrow night, it eliminates the chance of us playing NYJ in the first round

[DaFace]

Even after tonight, the #3, #5, and #6 seeds are all still in play. Here are the scenarios I can come up with:

#3 seed (18% chance based on the NYT model)
-Chiefs beat Raiders, Chargers beat Broncos

#6 seed (9% chance)
-Raiders beat Chiefs, Jets beat Bills

#5 seed (73% chance)
-All other possible scenarios

[Direckshun]

Let's go to Houston, folks.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Even after tonight, the #3, #5, and #6 seeds are all still in play. Here are the scenarios I can come up with:

#3 seed (18% chance based on the NYT model)
-Chiefs beat Raiders, Chargers beat Broncos

#6 seed (9% chance)
-Raider beat Chiefs, Jets beat Bills

#5 seed (73% chance)
-All other possible scenarios

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

[tk13]

Heading into the final week:

1) NE (12-3)
2) DEN (11-4)

3) CIN (11-4)
6) NYJ (10-5)

4) HOU (8-7)
5) KC (10-5)

PIT 9-6
IND 7-8


For the Chiefs:

3 seed:
KC win + DEN loss (AFC West champs)

5 seed:
KC win + DEN win
KC loss + NYJ loss

6 seed:
KC loss + NYJ win

That's it, I think. If the Chiefs get the 3 seed, they could play either DEN/PIT/NYJ. 5 seed will play HOU unless IND gets the greatest miracle of all time. 6 seed would likely play CIN, unless DEN also loses next week. Feel free to correct anything that's wrong.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

I really, really like the matchups in the AFC this year. I really think the Bengals are the only team that can beat us more than 50% of the time.

Brady is an X factor but the Pats are held together by shoestrings at this point, and the Broncos are a threat to collapse offensively even more than we are.

Good, good year to be in the playoffs.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

Agreed. It's been the path I was kind of hoping for for a while now. Win one playoff win - that's all I ask. Houston gives us about the best shot we've got at doing it.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Agreed. It's been the path I was kind of hoping for for a while now. Win one playoff win - that's all I ask. Houston gives us about the best shot we've got at doing it.

yep, never turn down a chance to play a home playoff game but, I like the matchup with Houston. I don't want to drop to #6 and play in Cincy. We have to beat the Raiders.

[philfree]

So if the Chiefs win and then both Denver and Cincy lose the Chiefs are the #2 seed? Right!

[tk13]

Originally Posted by philfree

So if the Chiefs win and then both Denver and Cincy lose the Chiefs are the #2 seed? Right!

Cincy beat KC head to head, so nope. The 3 seed is as high as they can go.

In that scenario, KC/DEN tiebreaker would count first, which KC would win. Then KC/CIN would be tied for the 2 seed, but CIN would win head to head... KC drops down to the 3 seed.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by tk13

Cincy beat KC head to head, so nope. The 3 seed is as high as they can go.

In that scenario, KC/DEN tiebreaker would count first, which KC would win. Then KC/CIN would be tied for the 2 seed, but CIN would win head to head... KC drops down to the 3 seed.

We'll have a 10-2 conference record though. Hmm on the boobtube they said we could still be the #2. I'll go with tk13 though. I think he's right.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by philfree

We'll have a 10-2 conference record though. Hmm on the boobtube they said we could still be the #2. I'll go with tk13 though. I think he's right.

We do, but we lost to Cincinnati head-to-head. That beats any other tiebreaker. Same reason Cincinnati can't pass Denver... they lost to them tonight.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by tk13

We do, but we lost to Cincinnati head-to-head. That beats any other tiebreaker. Same reason Cincinnati can't pass Denver... they lost to them tonight.

So who loses/wins which tie break first?

[Toby Waller]

I thought Cincy had to win tonight for Steelers to get in....and Denver lose to SD.

nope,Jets just have to lose.

theres no point in Denver being there. They will lose their first game no matter what