Chiefs Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:20 PM

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:27 PM

A few initial thoughts from this week:

According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we **** something up royally.
Even if we were to lose to the Chargers next week, we'd still have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (NYT), so I won't rush guys like Houston back if we can get them a little more healthy for the stretch.
That said, the top 3 teams in the AFC are going to be the Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, while the #4 seed is going to be the Colts or Texans. Since that's the case, holding onto the #5 seed may be really important. NYT says there's a 77% chance we get the 5 seed at the moment, but that drops to 53% if we drop a game to the Chargers.

That's all I've got at the moment. Just random observations.

**loochy** · 12-07-2015, 04:28 PM

If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loochy

If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.

OK, Direckshun.

siberian khatru · 12-07-2015, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

A few initial thoughts from this week:
[list][*]According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we **** something up royally.

You mean "chiefly."

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:32 PM

If anyone cares about a rooting guide for next weekend (though the main thing is for the Chiefs to keep winning), you want to pull for:

Bengals over Steelers (4% difference)
Titans over Jets (3% difference)
Eagles over Bills (1% difference)

Nothing else matters.

**loochy** · 12-07-2015, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

A few initial thoughts from this week:

According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we **** something up royally.
Even if we were to lose to the Chargers next week, we'd still have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (NYT), so I won't rush guys like Houston back if we can get them a little more healthy for the stretch.
That said, the top 3 teams in the AFC are going to be the Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, while the #4 seed is going to be the Colts or Texans. Since that's the case, holding onto the #5 seed may be really important. NYT says there's a 77% chance we get the 5 seed at the moment, but that drops to 53% if we drop a game to the Chargers.

That's all I've got at the moment. Just random observations.

None of these things make me feel better

**The Franchise** · 12-07-2015, 04:37 PM

I want that #5 seed. If we're going to break this playoffs curse....it has to be against an AFC South team....preferably the Colts.

mr. tegu · 12-07-2015, 04:37 PM

Really, it is time to start thinking about what games to watch for who we would want to play in the first round.

If we get the #5 seed it is more than likely the AFC South winner. That seems like a pretty big advantage so we really need to keep that spot. Then beyond in the second round should we get there we would probably be looking at playing the #1 seed since I don't think the #6 seed would be beating the #3 seed.

So, in this scenario, who would we prefer to be the #1 seed? I think I would least like to play Cincinnati, then NE, then Denver.

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Really, it is time to start thinking about what games to watch for who we would want to play in the first round.

If we get the #5 seed it is more than likely the AFC South winner. That seems like a pretty big advantage so we really need to keep that spot. Then beyond in the second round should we get there we would probably be looking at playing the #1 seed since I don't think the #6 seed would be beating the #3 seed.

So, in this scenario, who would we prefer to be the #1 seed? I think I would least like to play Cincinnati, then NE, then Denver.

I think I'd MOST like to play Denver out of those three, but it's a tossup between Cincy and NE for me. If it were next week, I'd want the Pats all day, but they'll be much healthier in a month.

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:42 PM

Regarding next week, 538 gives us an 85% chance of winning over the Chargers. I think I'll go skiing and not waste my time watching a game that will either be 1) a boring, predictable win or 2) a soul-crushing loss.

mr. tegu · 12-07-2015, 04:42 PM

We have the head to head tie breaker over Pittsburgh and 1.5 game conference tiebreaker on NYJ. We are sitting pretty good there.

**alpha_omega** · 12-07-2015, 04:42 PM

Never thought i'd see this thread at 1-5. Refreshing.

RINGLEADER · 12-07-2015, 04:43 PM

Gotta win the divisional games. Also, the wins over Houston, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh are huge right now.

I wish the Jets and Steelers would lose some games -- but seriously as long as this team keeps playing like this they'll be fine.

mr. tegu · 12-07-2015, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Gotta win the divisional games. Also, the wins over Houston, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh are huge right now.

I wish the Jets and Steelers would lose some games -- but seriously as long as this team keeps playing like this they'll be fine.

It really feels like if they each lose just one more game each, then we are pretty well locked in to the #5 seed.

12-07-2015, 04:20 PM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1716899	Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc. I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out. A couple resources I like: 538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts. The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds. Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!
Posts: 51,971

12-07-2015, 04:27 PM	#2
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1716899	A few initial thoughts from this week: According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we **** something up royally. Even if we were to lose to the Chargers next week, we'd still have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (NYT), so I won't rush guys like Houston back if we can get them a little more healthy for the stretch. That said, the top 3 teams in the AFC are going to be the Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, while the #4 seed is going to be the Colts or Texans. Since that's the case, holding onto the #5 seed may be really important. NYT says there's a 77% chance we get the 5 seed at the moment, but that drops to 53% if we drop a game to the Chargers. That's all I've got at the moment. Just random observations.
Posts: 51,971

12-07-2015, 04:28 PM	#3
loochy Hey Loochy, I'm hooome! Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: PooPooKaKaPeePeeShire Casino cash: $1830752	If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs. __________________ Hey Loochy, I'm hoooome!
Posts: 40,605

12-07-2015, 04:32 PM	#6
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1716899	If anyone cares about a rooting guide for next weekend (though the main thing is for the Chiefs to keep winning), you want to pull for: Bengals over Steelers (4% difference) Titans over Jets (3% difference) Eagles over Bills (1% difference) Nothing else matters.
Posts: 51,971

12-07-2015, 04:37 PM	#8
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2795047	I want that #5 seed. If we're going to break this playoffs curse....it has to be against an AFC South team....preferably the Colts.
Posts: 92,298

12-07-2015, 04:37 PM	#9
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $1661300	Really, it is time to start thinking about what games to watch for who we would want to play in the first round. If we get the #5 seed it is more than likely the AFC South winner. That seems like a pretty big advantage so we really need to keep that spot. Then beyond in the second round should we get there we would probably be looking at playing the #1 seed since I don't think the #6 seed would be beating the #3 seed. So, in this scenario, who would we prefer to be the #1 seed? I think I would least like to play Cincinnati, then NE, then Denver.
Posts: 24,155

12-07-2015, 04:42 PM	#11
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1716899	Regarding next week, 538 gives us an 85% chance of winning over the Chargers. I think I'll go skiing and not waste my time watching a game that will either be 1) a boring, predictable win or 2) a soul-crushing loss.
Posts: 51,971

12-07-2015, 04:42 PM	#13
alpha_omega Supporter Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Liberty Casino cash: $1341251	Never thought i'd see this thread at 1-5. Refreshing.
Posts: 16,782

12-07-2015, 04:43 PM	#14
RINGLEADER In Search of a Life Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Confusion, USA Casino cash: $8590503	Gotta win the divisional games. Also, the wins over Houston, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh are huge right now. I wish the Jets and Steelers would lose some games -- but seriously as long as this team keeps playing like this they'll be fine.
Posts: 46,707