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Old 12-07-2015, 04:20 PM  
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Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.
I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!
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Old 12-07-2015, 05:48 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
How would we be essentially playing for seeding when we haven't clinched a spot yet? Based on SOS?
Well, that's the "essentially" part. These are models that make an assumption that teams will generally continue to play as they have over the course of the season (not in terms of W-L records, but in terms of other stats-based power ratings). Sure, if the Chiefs were to drop three games against the Browns, Ravens, and Raiders in a row, they could be in trouble, but it's highly unlikely that would happen.

And for that matter, if the scenario that DLN played out, we'd still have a 35% chance of making the playoffs even if we lost all three games to end the season. We have tiebreakers over pretty much everyone, so even 8-8 could possibly get us in, and 9-7 is almost a lock.
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Old 12-07-2015, 05:52 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
How would we be essentially playing for seeding when we haven't clinched a spot yet? Based on SOS?
If after this week we are the only 8-5 team essentially it seems that we can only miss the playoffs by losing out and two other teams each finishing 9-7 because we have the tiebreakers on every team we would be competing with if we ended with the same records.
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Old 12-07-2015, 05:53 PM   #33
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I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.
We need to exorcise the demons.

1st round at Indy
2nd round at NE/Denver
3rd round at NE/Denver

Shit all over our past in one post season.
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:20 PM   #34
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In retrospect, its "good" that 3 of the 5 losses came against the NFC.
Still dumb in my opinion that the NFL playoffs are two conference tournaments with the top four seeds in each weighted to divisional champions and two wild cards based largely on total league wins.

Consistency would be nice.
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:24 PM   #35
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oh man. That was a looooong drive home.
I felt bad for all of you guys that went. ****....I couldn't imagine seeing that happen in person.

I was drunk as **** by half time and I just watched in silence during the second half. I can remember my brother saying in the 3rd quarter after he said "we'll hold out....don't worry".....I turned to him and said "We're the Chiefs.....we're going to lose this."
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:37 PM   #36
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We need to exorcise the demons.

1st round at Indy
2nd round at NE/Denver
3rd round at NE/Denver

Shit all over our past in one post season.
This.

All this.

The most recent Colts loss hurt but it was nothing compared to 95. We were a SB team in 95 and just completely $#it the bed...
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Old 12-07-2015, 06:45 PM   #37
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I felt bad for all of you guys that went. ****....I couldn't imagine seeing that happen in person.

I was drunk as **** by half time and I just watched in silence during the second half. I can remember my brother saying in the 3rd quarter after he said "we'll hold out....don't worry".....I turned to him and said "We're the Chiefs.....we're going to lose this."
Know the feeling all too well.

When they gave that OOB fumble to the Colts? My heart SANK. I knew right then. How messed up is that?

I told the guy I was with, we're gonna lose by one....and we did.
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:33 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
This.

All this.

The most recent Colts loss hurt but it was nothing compared to 95. We were a SB team in 95 and just completely $#it the bed...
And that POS Kicker will FOREVER REMAIN NAMELESS!
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Old 12-07-2015, 07:37 PM   #39
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If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.
This has to be true. We started 1-5 and have the #5 seed
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Old 12-13-2015, 11:08 PM   #40
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After today, 538 has us at an 89% chance of making the playoffs overall, and a 14% chance of winning the division. We have essentially no shot at the bye.

NYT's simulator has us at a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Here's the full scenario breakdown:



In terms of a rooting guide for next week, we want:
  • Chiefs over Ravens obviously (9% swing)
  • Cowboys over Jets (5% swing)
  • Broncos over Steelers (3% swing)

But I can assure you I will not be rooting for the Broncos to win.
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Old 12-14-2015, 05:32 AM   #41
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Would be soooooo friggin awesome to see the Donkeys lose the next two.

Damn , we should have won the week 2 game. Damn !
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Old 12-14-2015, 06:11 AM   #42
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Can someone find me a scenario where the Broncos miss the playoffs entirely?

That would be awesome.
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Old 12-14-2015, 07:28 AM   #43
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Still dumb in my opinion that the NFL playoffs are two conference tournaments with the top four seeds in each weighted to divisional champions and two wild cards based largely on total league wins.

Consistency would be nice.
I don't really see an inconsistency. All games count when determining a division winner, and all games count when determining the wild card teams.

What do you want, no divisions? It's fine the way it is.
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Old 12-14-2015, 07:47 AM   #44
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Can someone find me a scenario where the Broncos miss the playoffs entirely?

That would be awesome.
I think if they lose out and finish 10-6 and the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers win out and finish 11-5, that should do it.

Pats, Bengals, South Winner and the Chiefs would be division winners with the Jets and Steelers the Wild Cards.
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Old 12-14-2015, 08:01 AM   #45
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My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!
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