Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

[DaFace]

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.

Steelers made huge adjustments at halftime and Denver had no new plan

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by scho63

Steelers made huge adjustments at halftime and Denver had no new plan

Steelers kept blowing holes in their own foot in the first half. In the second half they stopped doing that.

The Broncos are going to lose the first playoff game they play. I'm hoping enough things break right that they come back to Arrowhead for the WC round.

[DJ's left nut]

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.

The Bengals will likely struggle mightily to score with McCarron but even with their injuries they've still got the talent on defense to hold the Broncos to minimal points.

I agree with you, though. I'm not holding my breath.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The Bengals will likely struggle mightily to score with McCarron but even with their injuries they've still got the talent on defense to hold the Broncos to minimal points.

I agree with you, though. I'm not holding my breath.

If I knew whether or not Jeremy Hill sucked, I might be higher on the Bengals chances.

But I just can't figure that guy out at all. By most measures, the Bengals look like a team that should be able to manage a game to a W but Hill's just looked horrid for most of the year. Bernard's looked pretty damn good but it appears that Lewis just doesn't want to give him lead-dog carries.

Really, the Bengals look a lot like we'd look trying to win with Daniel under center. I think you can manage that against .500 or worse teams but I don't think they'll be able to pull it off against a viscous defense on the road.

If Hill were running with the ferocity he was running with last year, maybe. But right now he's running like Knile Davis instead of Spencer Ware.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.

If McCarron doesn't make any stupid mistakes and is able to manage the game, I think Cinci can win. Broncos defense hasn't been as dominant the past few weeks and the Bengals defense can stop Osweiler easily IMO. Broncos haven't scored in the 2nd half of the past 3 games and they haven't played a defense close to as good as the Bengals. I bet the Bengals get a defensive score in this game.
Posted via Mobile Device

[O.city]

Broncos defense has been good though king, they just ran into a hot big ben. Last week, they dominated the raiders

[ARROW2]

Originally Posted by O.city

Broncos defense has been good though king, they just ran into a hot big ben. Last week, they dominated the raiders

For one half. Then........

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

It's all just modeling of course, so I'd probably agree that 97% is a little on the high side. That said, it's pretty easy to see where the numbers come from. Using 538's model, we have a 90% chance of winning over the Browns and an 85% chance of beating the Raiders. That scenario alone give us a 76.5% chance of making the playoffs even if the Jets and Steelers win out.

Then on top of that 76.5% chance, you add the possibilities that the Jets lose to the Patriots (68%) or Bills (56%), and there's an 86% chance that they lose one or the other. Similarly, the Steelers could technically lose to either the Ravens (32%) or Browns (21%), and there's a 46% chance that one or the other will happen. Rolling all that up, there's a 92% chance that the Steelers and Jets will (collectively) lose at least one game, which would give us even more breathing room.

It's the NFL, so you really can't ever be comfortable, but we're in REALLY good shape unless a ton of luck turns against us.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC round

It can happen, though it is somewhat unlikely. I think you're correct that we're more likely to host the Broncos than the Steelers.

(These are the times I wish I had cdcox's software to work with - it's much more granular than the other online predictors out there.)

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It can happen, though it is somewhat unlikely. I think you're correct that we're more likely to host the Broncos than the Steelers.

(These are the times I wish I had cdcox's software to work with - it's much more granular than the other online predictors out there.)

If the jets lose to the Pats and the steelers win out with the chiefs winning out, wed either be the 5 seed, or the 3 seed.

I don't see or can't come up with a scenario where the steelers are the 6 seed.

I guess I'm not considering they drop one of their last 2 games though

[wazu]

Originally Posted by O.city

If the jets lose to the Pats and the steelers win out with the chiefs winning out, wed either be the 5 seed, or the 3 seed.

I don't see or can't come up with a scenario where the steelers are the 6 seed.

I guess I'm not considering they drop one of their last 2 games though

You mean you don't see a scenario where Chiefs are 6 seed? Cause Steelers would be 6 in the only scenario you listed.

[O.city]

The steelers hold the tiebreaker over the jets so if they have the same record the steelers are the 5 seed.

The only way the steelers are the 6 seed is if the chiefs are the 5, from what I can tell. If we win the division, the broncos are the 6 seed or out

[O.city]

If we win the division and the Steelers drop 1 to the browns or ravens, yeah they're the 6 seed if the jets lose to the Pats

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.



CIN will go 1-1 and PIT will go 2-0, setting up a rematch @ CIN in Round 1.



Jets lose out to NE, and KC wins out with HOU winning their division.



Sets up KC @ Houston, oddly enough... to end the curse.



Playing around with the ESPN machine. The Jets/NE game, Cin/Den Game, Oak/KC game are really critical. If the Jets can beat NE and then CIN or OAK give those two teams fits, this thing gets flipped around.

Here's a fun thought: if the CHIEFS, Steelers, Jets and Bengals all win next week, Denver will not be in playoffs headed into week 17 and will need a loss from KC, Pitt or New York to make it in.