Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

[DaFace]

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

[KChiefs1]

KC vs Houston would be appropriate since the Royals had to beat Houston too.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Here's a fun thought: if the CHIEFS, Steelers, Jets and Bengals all win next week, Denver will not be in playoffs headed into week 17 and will need a loss from KC, Pitt or New York to make it in.

This is my favorite situation.

[REDHOTGTO]

This is amazing after the start of the season,unbeiveable

[Amnorix]

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by O.city

The steelers hold the tiebreaker over the jets so if they have the same record the steelers are the 5 seed.

The only way the steelers are the 6 seed is if the chiefs are the 5, from what I can tell. If we win the division, the broncos are the 6 seed or out

Don't have time to break them all down, but FYI about half of the things you've said in this thread are factually inaccurate.

[Chiefnj2]

If KC wins out and the Broncos lose 1 game, then KC takes the division.

If KC wins out and Broncos win out, KC is pretty much guaranteed the 5 spot.

IF KC loses one game, then all hell breaks loose between KC, NYJ and PITT and everyone in Missouri becomes a Pats/Bills/Chargers/Ravens fan.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by wazu

Don't have time to break them all down, but FYI about half of the things you've said in this thread are factually inaccurate.

I'm basing everything on the assumption that the Steelers win out, the broncos finish 1 and 1 and the chiefs winnout.

[BigMeatballDave]

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?

Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time.

[ChiefGator]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?

Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time.

Yeah, I have visions of Chucky jumping up and down like he won the Superbowl though. Bet they bring their A game.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?



Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time.

2011. Week 17, IIRC.

We had the opportunity to win the division by beating them and we lost. Raiders blocked two field goals in that game.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

Just need Denver to win both games at home.
Patriots lose @ Jets (possible) and @ Dolphins (not likely).

And then Denver gets the #1 seed. Go Jets and Dolphins.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

2011. Week 17, IIRC.

We had the opportunity to win the division by beating them and we lost. Raiders blocked two field goals in that game.

Actually week 16.

That was the game that Dwayne Bowe dropped an easy pass that would have put 6 on the board and sealed the win.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Actually week 16.



That was the game that Dwayne Bowe dropped an easy pass that would have put 6 on the board and sealed the win.

The Raiders went 6-0 in the division that year and still missed the playoffs. Tebow mania.

Weird year.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

Stop, Jets!

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The Raiders went 6-0 in the division that year and still missed the playoffs. Tebow mania.

Weird year.

If that one Bears RB doesn't run out of bounds, Denver sits at home that year.