The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy

[OnTheWarpath15]

For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent.

WHY?

Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round.

Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT.

And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders:

Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT.

1997 and 2002.

FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2007 x 3
2005 x 3
2001 x 2
2000 x 3

[Direckshun]

+1

[RustShack]

But but every first LT taken every year is a HOFer.. :)

[OnTheWarpath15]

Who are these people who are "LT or bust in R1"?

Please tell me you're kidding.

I spent 1/2 hour researching this, I'm not spending the rest of my day digging up the hundreds of posts that advocate taking a LT with our first pick no matter who it is, all based on need.

I know you're more in tune to this place than you've lead on with that question.

[RustShack]

Must be his first time on the internet...

[Hoover]

I think your "LT in R1 or Bust" group is a myth. From everything I've read on this BB most people want to go Jake Long , Ellis, or Dorsey at number 5. Thats far from being LT or Bust in my opinion. Now I agree with you, and I think a lot of other do to that we don't want to see the Chiefs reach in at #5 for a LT not names Long.

[RustShack]

I still think Long is a reach at #5... I hope hes gone.

[keg in kc]

I'm trying to figure out which one of you is voyager, or if you're all voyager on multiple accounts.

[pikesome]

Depends on the kind of Bust we're getting instead of Long.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_BQtOW7ZUlF8/RgwTndU_59I/AAAAAAAADIE/aWM97SreZJ0/s1600/9489__bust.jpg

[OnTheWarpath15]

I think your "LT in R1 or Bust" group is a myth. From everything I've read on this BB most people want to go Jake Long , Ellis, or Dorsey at number 5. Thats far from being LT or Bust in my opinion. Now I agree with you, and I think a lot of other do to that we don't want to see the Chiefs reach in at #5 for a LT not names Long.

Have you not seen all the people who want to trade down to take Clady or Otah, or worse yet, take them at 5?

That's LT or Bust at its finest. Passing on greater talent for lesser talent, based purely on need.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Let me clear something up.

This isn't about Jake Long. IF, and that's a BIG IF, Jake Long is there at #5, he's possibly the BPA, and I'm fine with taking him.

I think if we all take our homer glasses off, we can all agree that Long falling to the 5 slot is a longshot at best.

Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5.

That thought process is the epitome of LT or Bust. Passing on a greater talent for a lesser talent, based solely on need alone.

[eazyb81]

Have you not seen all the people who want to trade down to take Clady or Otah, or worse yet, take them at 5?

That's LT or Bust at its finest. Passing on greater talent for lesser talent, based purely on need.

How are those people "LT or Bust"? Maybe they don't feel Clady or Otah is a massive, franchise-killing reach at 5?

[OnTheWarpath15]

How are those people "LT or Bust"? Maybe they don't feel Clady or Otah is a massive, franchise-killing reach at 5?

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.

[keg in kc]

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.You don't think Clady or Otah is worth 5 and I don't think Clady or Otah is worth 5, but neither your opinion nor my opinion nor anything that any site run by a so-called 'draft expert' says means that somebody else isn't entitled to believe something different. Maybe they think Dorsey's an injury risk, maybe they think Ryan's not a pro prospect, maybe they think Clady or Otah are underrated and would be the best player on the board. Whatever it is, I doubt seriously it's "LT or Bust in R1, regardless of value or talent".

Hell, for all we know, the consensus among NFL teams may be that Clady or Otah is really the best tackle in the draft, and Jake Long's going to drop to 30. We have no way of knowing.

[blueballs]

What happened to the What if guy
day after day of threads of What if

[SBK]

Frankie is one LT or bust guy. Option 1 is draft Jake Long, option 2 is trade down for another LT, option 3 is take a different LT at 5 and option 50 is draft the best player available.

[raypec85]

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.

Chris Long & Sedrick Ellis are better. I would not want the Chiefs to draft Clady or Otah over one of those two at #5. But are Matt Ryan and Vernon Gholston better than Clady? Debatable. You also need to factor in that in a trade down scenario KC picks up another pick. Are Matt Ryan or Vernon Gholston better than Clady plus another good pick in the 3rd round? Even more debatable.

[mylittlepony]

I think ESPN did a draft bust study last year and concluded that QB, RB and WR were alot higher risk of busting at around 50%. And only LB and S at like 15% were the least risk. Pretty much every other position was around 30%. I think DT and DE were higher then OL. But on the other hand I think DT produced the most Pro bowlers or something like that.

[blueballs]

If KC drafts Jake Long
and he gives up a couple sacks
they'll be back next year

[Hoover]

Have you not seen all the people who want to trade down to take Clady or Otah, or worse yet, take them at 5?

That's LT or Bust at its finest. Passing on greater talent for lesser talent, based purely on need.

OK. Now if Long, Ellis and Dorsey are gone, then I think the right move is to trade down. I don't want to see us give Ryan a huge contract, or go for a CB. We should trade down then.

[eazyb81]

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.

No on Long, Dorsey, or Ryan, and an argument could be made with Gholston and Ellis.

But the bottom line is that all the players are considered top ten overall prospects, so it's not like people are talking about drafting a punter at 5. Clady and Otah are also potentially great players, and we have a definite need at the position.

[melbar]

I think everyone is in agreement that if Long, Long, Dorsey, or Ellis is there probably the other guys are gone and you take the guy that is left. Next question is do you think Ryan or McFadden fit the Chiefs. If not and you cant trade down, you are looking at the next 5 guys who all by strict definition will be reaches because your looking at players ranked lower than #6 overall by most rankings. If your gonna reach, do you reach OT, DE, CB or OLB? If I'm drafting on potential I go OT. That doesnt mean I am OT or bust, I in that situation where all those elite players are gone defer to the position of greatest need if the remaining players are basically graded the same. I hope we arent in that position and we get one of the great guys because someone else sees their need for RB or QB as justifying passing one of those guys. I also hope that guy is J. Long personally because paired with a strong G/C later in the draft our star running back becomes relavent again and opens up the entire Offense not to mention getting an acurate QB evaluation. But I also think Dorsey will make the job of our crappy CB's a lot easier. We also need an OT that doesnt have an enormous learning curve which to me means probably by rd 2. I'm not an "or bust" guy, I do however hope for Long or a top OT to fall to us in the 2nd for the long term good of our team. Let em learn from their mistakes while we already suck this year. JMO.

[Chiefnj2]

Name one person who said take a LT regardless of talent and value.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Name one person who said take a LT regardless of talent and value.

Frankie is one LT or bust guy. Option 1 is draft Jake Long, option 2 is trade down for another LT, option 3 is take a different LT at 5 and option 50 is draft the best player available.

By virtue of picking 5th, at LEAST one of the following WILL be available:

C. Long, Ellis, Dorsey, Gholston, Ryan.

There's not a team in the league who has Ryan Clady or Jeff Otah rated higher than those players.

To pass on one of them for Clady or Otah is ignoring the difference in talent and value they possess.

[melbar]

By virtue of picking 5th, at LEAST one of the following WILL be available:

C. Long, Ellis, Dorsey, Gholston, Ryan.

There's not a team in the league who has Ryan Clady or Jeff Otah rated higher than those players.

To pass on one of them for Clady or Otah is ignoring the difference in talent and value they possess.

Gholston and Clady are side by side on several drafts. Thats not a reach, thats a choice.

[Coogs]

Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5.


First off, I am not on the Otah at #5 bandwagon. BUT... Clady is ranked 8th on almost every scouting report out there, give or take a spot. AND.. (From NFLDraftCountdown)...

Notes:
Redshirted in '04 and then started the next three seasons...Played right tackle as a redshirt frosh and then made a seamless transition to the left side when Daryn Colledge moved on to the pros...Has a rare blend of size and athleticism and was born to protect the quarterbacks blind side...Has all the physical tools you look for and he's the best pure left tackle prospect in this draft...A sure-fire Top 10-15 pick.

Just because some of you don't like him, he is viewed as the poteni=tial best LT in the draft. And Herm has said that is a priority (one I agree with FTR). Granted, it make take a year for the guy to be a great LT... but we have a year to wait. We ain't going to the SB next year anyway.

[Chiefmanwillcatch]

If KC drafts Jake Long
and he gives up a couple sacks
they'll be back next year

What if he's ok at LT and helps us rushing for 2000 yards?

[Mr. Laz]

regardless of value or talent.
so in your expert opinion Jake Long is a guaranteed bust?

because that's who people have been wanting us to take

a few Clady people but :shake:



kinda stretching things a bit.......

[Coogs]

so in your expert opinion Jake Long is a guaranteed bust?

because that's who people have been wanting us to take

a few Clady people but :shake:



kinda stretching things a bit.......

3 spots! Hell, that is a made FG, a defensive stop, a won coinflip against the Jets in OT from being a steal (plus it would hav silenced all the Croyle hasn't wona game critics).

[Mr. Laz]

3 spots! Hell, that is a made FG, a defensive stop, a won coinflip against the Jets in OT from being a steal (plus it would hav silenced all the Croyle hasn't wona game critics).
uh ............ what?!?!?

[Coogs]

uh ............ what?!?!?


Clady is the 8th ranked player. Down the stretch last season, we had chance to win 3 or 4 football games. We win any one of the three, or maybe all of them, we are picking 8th to the middle teens. We aren't. We are picking 5th. But none the less the 8th rated player in the draft is not that much of a reach for the 5th pick in the draft. Some here would have you think we are selecting a 3rd round player if we take Clady.

[Brock]

Who did Clady play against?

[Coogs]

Who did Clady play against?

The dude is the 8th rank player in the draft, and is listed as the potential top LT in the draft.

[Stryker]

At #5 if Jake Long is there - take him if not then BPA!

Ellis, Gholston, Dorsey, Ryan is my hope.

[Mr. Laz]

Clady is the 8th ranked player. Down the stretch last season, we had chance to win 3 or 4 football games. We win any one of the three, or maybe all of them, we are picking 8th to the middle teens. We aren't. We are picking 5th. But none the less the 8th rated player in the draft is not that much of a reach for the 5th pick in the draft. Some here would have you think we are selecting a 3rd round player if we take Clady.
so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.


But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"


FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and are rather unproven.

[Coogs]

so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.


But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"


FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and our rather unproven.


I'd pretty much agree with that whole post.

[Tribal Warfare]

Who did Clady play against?

Hawaii Bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[melbar]

so you're saying that Clady would be a bit of a reach.

maybe so

but still, Mr. Warpath is ranting and raving that people want a "left tackle or bust" is some kind of Armageddon manner.

Imo it would be far more accurate for him say that he just disagrees with peoples evaluation of Jake Long and Ryan Clady and be done with it.

some people think Jake Long is worth it .... some don't.

a few people think that Clady is worth it

some think a trade down then Clady would be best.


But i have yet to see anyone say "take any tackle, no matter what"


FTR - i have pointed out the fact that Long and clady haven't faced primo pass rushers for the most part and are rather unproven.

Great post. I will say that somewhere in the 1st 2 rounds we would be better off getting an OT. 3rd would be getting sketchy. If the cards fall wrong, you do what you can do and hope someone is dropped after June 1st. How often does that happen?

[Brock]

The dude is the 8th rank player in the draft, and is listed as the potential top LT in the draft.

I'd run away from the question if I were you too.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Let me clear something up.

This isn't about Jake Long. IF, and that's a BIG IF, Jake Long is there at #5, he's possibly the BPA, and I'm fine with taking him.

I think if we all take our homer glasses off, we can all agree that Long falling to the 5 slot is a longshot at best.

Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5.

That thought process is the epitome of LT or Bust. Passing on a greater talent for a lesser talent, based solely on need alone.

so in your expert opinion Jake Long is a guaranteed bust?

because that's who people have been wanting us to take

a few Clady people but :shake:



kinda stretching things a bit.......

Did you bother to read this post, Laz?

This isn't about Jake Long.

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.

[Chiefnj2]

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.

This is about YOUR OPINION that Ryan and Gholston are a better talent than Clady.

[Mr. Laz]

Did you bother to read this post, Laz?

This isn't about Jake Long.

This is about passing on a greater talent (Ellis, Dorsey, Ryan, etc) to draft a player with lesser talent (Clady, Otah) based solely on NEED.
yes ... but your title says something different.

so which is it ..... is your thread title just inflamatory bullshite or are you splitting hair in a effort to pick a fight?


in YOUR opinion Jake Long won't fall
in YOUR opinion Ryan Clady isn't worth it


but I REPEAT ...... nobody that i've seen is saying "LT or Bust"

[Micjones]

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

[Coogs]

I'd run away from the question if I were you too.


I didn't run away from it. No matter who the heck he played against, he is still the 8th ranked player in the draft. He isn't ranked 8th with an asterisk because he played for Boise State.

[PHOG]

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R2. (#35) OT Sam Baker
R2. (#63) CB Charles Godfrey
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) ILB Jonathan Goff
R6. (#171) FB Jehuu Caulcrick
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?


HEY, you forgot the 29th pick!

[Hoover]

If we can trade down and and get the Cowboys 2 first rounders I think that might be wise, especially if a player we covet is gone.

We need lots of help and having 3 out of the first 35 picks would be huge.

[melbar]

If we can trade down and and get the Cowboys 2 first rounders I think that might be wise, especially if a player we covet is gone.

We need lots of help and having 3 out of the first 35 picks would be huge.

Absolutely. How great would Brandon Albert/Chris Williams, Antoine Cason/Rogers-Cromartie, and James Hardy/Early Doucet by #35 be?
Pick your fav combo...

[StcChief]

BPA

[melbar]

BPA

Great point...:rolleyes:

[Micjones]

HEY, you forgot the 29th pick!

I revised my list a bit.

[Coogs]

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

Nice! :thumb:

[Micjones]

Nice! :thumb:

The whole right side of our Offensive Line would be set for 10 years.
From Center (Niswanger) to Right Tackle (Cherilus). Sullivan could compete with Niswanger. Whomever loses the job would stick around for depth purposes. We'd have a replacement at each of those three spots.

You'd have your two CB starters (Cason, Jackson) once Surtain hung it up.
And a nice cushion with Nickel (Brackenridge) and Dimeback (Patterson).

Curtis Lofton would likely be a 2nd year starter and take over for Harris.
Your LB trio (Williams, Lofton, Johnson) would be young and very talented.

Schmitt makes a splash right away at FB.
Manningham competes with Darling/Webb for his spot in the WR food chain.

Serna would battle it out with (a hopefully healthy) Cundiff for Placekicking duties. Or you could carry both...

Smith and Gilberry serve as depth on the Defensive Line...

Couldn't ask for anything more.
A QB would've been nice though... Sue me!

[OnTheWarpath15]

Another brilliant example of passing on arguably the best player in the draft, to trade down to take an OT.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=182344

[OnTheWarpath15]

No one is suggesting that the Chiefs reach for a Left Tackle.
That's so far from the truth.

If Long's off of the board...
I either:
-Draft Glenn Dorsey/Sedrick Ellis
-Draft Matt Ryan
-Trade down

And I'm really warming up to trading down.

R1. (#5) Trade down to 22nd overall, Add 29th and 63rd overall picks
R1. (#22) G Branden Albert
R1. (#29) OT Gosder Cherilus
R2. (#35) CB Antoine Cason
R2. (#63) ILB Curtis Lofton
R3. (#66) WR Mario Manningham
R4. (#101) CB Chevis Jackson
R5. (#127) C John Sullivan
R5. (#131) FB Owen Schmitt
R6. (#171) DE Wallace Gilberry
R6. (#188) K Alexis Serna
R7. (#210) DT Henry Smith

How about it?

Actually, plenty of people are suggesting the Chiefs reach for a tackle.

Instead of "trade down" being their THIRD option, like you, its their FIRST option, bypassing greater talent on the board.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I didn't run away from it. No matter who the heck he played against, he is still the 8th ranked player in the draft. He isn't ranked 8th with an asterisk because he played for Boise State.

He's the 8th rank player according to a few websites.

I'd bet you all the rice in China that he's not in the Top 10 overall on any NFL team's draft board.

Several teams, including the Chiefs, tend to shy away from underclassmen O-linemen. There was an article floating around last year about how NFL teams are looking for guys who have at least 45-50 starts in college, and how guys that don't typically don't succeed in the league. I'll try to find it.

Clady had 37 starts at Boise St, and only 26 of those were actually at LT.

Also, whether people like it or not, he played for Boise ****ing State.

That's wouldn't be that big of a deal had he DOMINATED at Boise State.

He didn't.

Jake Long gets shit on this board for giving up ONE sack, and it was to a guy who's universally a Top 5-6 pick.

Clady was less than dominant against ridiculously inferior competition.

How anyone thinks taking a guy at the 5th pick overall who can't handle those HUGE stars from the likes of Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State is getting value at our pick is baffling to me.

[melbar]

He's the 8th rank player according to a few websites.

I'd bet you all the rice in China that he's not in the Top 10 overall on any NFL team's draft board.

Several teams, including the Chiefs, tend to shy away from underclassmen O-linemen. There was an article floating around last year about how NFL teams are looking for guys who have at least 45-50 starts in college, and how guys that don't typically don't succeed in the league. I'll try to find it.

Clady had 37 starts at Boise St, and only 26 of those were actually at LT.

Also, whether people like it or not, he played for Boise ****ing State.

That's wouldn't be that big of a deal had he DOMINATED at Boise State.

He didn't.

Jake Long gets shit on this board for giving up ONE sack, and it was to a guy who's universally a Top 5-6 pick.
Clady was less than dominant against ridiculously inferior competition.

How anyone thinks taking a guy at the 5th pick overall who can't handle those HUGE stars from the likes of Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State is getting value at our pick is baffling to me.

Actually averages more like 7th...
Clady is universally about 9th. Reach and Reach. Again who are you gonna "reach" for?
As much as I get into this discussion, not what I would want. Definately dont want Gholston at 5 either. Less so.
Wouldnt want the Cinci thing either. Better get a second out of that, and It still wouldnt be great.
Dallas trade down is the only decent trade down scenario I've seen, and only if the top 4 are gone. MicJones draft looks good if it fell that way. It would be a great start to the rebuilding process.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Actually averages more like 7th...
Clady is universally about 9th. Reach and Reach. Again who are you gonna "reach" for?
As much as I get into this discussion, not what I would want. Definately dont want Gholston at 5 either. Less so.
Wouldnt want the Cinci thing either. Better get a second out of that, and It still wouldnt be great.
Dallas trade down is the only decent trade down scenario I've seen, and only if the top 4 are gone. MicJones draft looks good if it fell that way. It would be a great start to the rebuilding process.

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

[Chiefnj2]

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).

[OnTheWarpath15]

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).


I do understand it, though I think those people either:

1) Don't watch college football

2) Are arguing for the sake of arguing.


There are many, many people here who have never seen these guys play, but take the word of Joe Nobody at www.igotsmeadraftwebsite.com as gospel.

I have a hard time fathoming that anyone who has seen Ryan Clady PLAY, thinks he's worthy of a Top 5 pick over players like Dorsey, Ellis, Ryan or either of the Longs.

Please, enlighten us.

Who are YOUR Top 5 players?

[Sully]

All I had to see of Clady was the Hawaii game to let me know he's not elite.
It may be mental, it may be physical. But you don't suck that bad against average (at best) talent, and suddenly turn into an elite NFL player.

[OnTheWarpath15]

All I had to see of Clady was the Hawaii game to let me know he's not elite.
It may be mental, it may be physical. But you don't suck that bad against average (at best) talent, and suddenly turn into an elite NFL player.

He was less than dominant against extremely weak competition.

I can only HOPE the Broncos draft him, so Jared Allen can abuse him for the next 5-8 years.

[Chiefnj2]

I do understand it, though I think those people either:

1) Don't watch college football

2) Are arguing for the sake of arguing.


There are many, many people here who have never seen these guys play, but take the word of Joe Nobody at www.igotsmeadraftwebsite.com as gospel.

I have a hard time fathoming that anyone who has seen Ryan Clady PLAY, thinks he's worthy of a Top 5 pick over players like Dorsey, Ellis, Ryan or either of the Longs.

Please, enlighten us.

Who are YOUR Top 5 players?

I've responded to this numerous times. I think there are 3 elite players - 1. Chris Long, 2. Glenn Dorsey and 3. Jake Long.

On the second tier I would put Ellis next and then the following players (not necessarily in order) - Mendenhall, Brohm, Jenkins, Rivers, Connor, Williams and Harvey.

[ChiefsCountry]

Why don't YOU understand that not everyone agrees that those 5, or those 7, are the top "elite" talent? People have legitimate questions about Ryan, McFadden and Gholston. (Dorsey also if you are shy about players that have had injuries in college).

Those are 7 best players in this draft save Ryan but he is the top rated QB so he is.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I've responded to this numerous times. I think there are 3 elite players - 1. Chris Long, 2. Glenn Dorsey and 3. Jake Long.

On the second tier I would put Ellis next and then the following players (not necessarily in order) - Mendenhall, Brohm, Jenkins, Rivers, Connor, Williams and Harvey.

Where's Clady?

[Chiefnj2]

Where's Clady?

He'd be on the next level behind guys like Gholston, McFadden, McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie.

[OnTheWarpath15]

He'd be on the next level behind guys like Gholston, McFadden, McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie.


So we're basically in complete agreement, that the guy is a 15-20 guy at best.

[Chiefnj2]

So we're basically in complete agreement, that the guy is a 15-20 guy at best.

In my opinion he is a 15-20 guy.

In the opinion of the "experts" (who you seem to accept when it is convenient for you with Long, Ryan, McFadden, Gholston, etc.) he is a top 10 guy.

[OnTheWarpath15]

In my opinion he is a 15-20 guy.

In the opinion of the "experts" (who you seem to accept when it is convenient for you with Long, Ryan, McFadden, Gholston, etc.) he is a top 10 guy.

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart

[melbar]

This is what I don't understand.

One of the following will be available at #5, GUARANTEED.

J. Long
C. Long
Ellis
Dorsey
Ryan

WHY would anyone want to trade down and pass on an elite talent?

There are 7 guys who all could go #1. The 5 I listed above, and McFadden and Gholston.

After that, there's a pretty significant drop in talent.

Staying at 5 guarantees us one of these guys.

I would be extremely happy to have any one of those 5. Ryan I can see the argument against Ryan, and I'm 50/50 on him. I'm just saying if those guys are gone and our staff deems Ryan unworthy, by default whoever we would pick sans trading down will be considered a "reach". If we're on the second tier of players and all is relatively =, it becomes a choice of what position do you choose?

[Monty]

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart

Can't argue with this at all...it really looks accurate IMO.

All along, I've been a "BPA or Bust" person...trading down rarely if ever makes any real sense. If the goal is to build the team, the BPA is always the best route, the only issue is whether the team with the pick actually picks the BPA. ;)

[DaKCMan AP]

First off, I am not on the Otah at #5 bandwagon. BUT... Clady is ranked 8th on almost every scouting report out there, give or take a spot. AND.. (From NFLDraftCountdown)...

Notes:
Redshirted in '04 and then started the next three seasons...Played right tackle as a redshirt frosh and then made a seamless transition to the left side when Daryn Colledge moved on to the pros...Has a rare blend of size and athleticism and was born to protect the quarterbacks blind side...Has all the physical tools you look for and he's the best pure left tackle prospect in this draft...A sure-fire Top 10-15 pick.

Just because some of you don't like him, he is viewed as the poteni=tial best LT in the draft. And Herm has said that is a priority (one I agree with FTR). Granted, it make take a year for the guy to be a great LT... but we have a year to wait. We ain't going to the SB next year anyway.

You have it right there in your own post. Clady is "a sure-fire Top 10-15 pick." When you pick #5 overall you damn well better pick a guy who is "a sure-fire Top 5 pick."

[OnTheWarpath15]

You have it right there in your own post. Clady is "a sure-fire Top 10-15 pick." When you pick #5 overall you damn well better pick a guy who is "a sure-fire Top 5 pick."

Exactly.

[melbar]

Convenient for me?

My list has been the same throughout. I don't agree with a lot of what the so-called experts say. I watch as many guys play as possible and then form my own opinions.

McFadden is a great example.

I think Mendenhall and even Felix Jones will have better pro careers than McFadden.

My list, in "tier" form, as you listed yours: (no particular order)

Tier A: C. Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, J. Long

Tier B: Ryan, Rivers, Mendenhall, Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Williams

Tier C: D. Harvey, Mike Jenkins, McKelvin, Otah, Stewart


No Clady at all?:)

I pretty much agree with your list except for Gholston and Clady to B and I'd switch Jenkins and McKelvin with Rogers-Cromartie. DRC didnt play in college to the level that his talent is. Sort of like Woolfork a couple of years ago.

[OnTheWarpath15]

No Clady at all?:)

I pretty much agree with your list except for Gholston and Clady to B and I'd switch Jenkins and McKelvin with Rogers-Cromartie. DRC didnt play in college to the level that his talent is. Sort of like Woolfork a couple of years ago.

Nope, no Clady.

There's an explanation in post 55 if you're interested.

While I think that Rodgers-Cromartie is the best CB in the draft, it would be real easy to see any of them be the 1st off the board depending on the team, and the scheme they play.

[melbar]

Nope, no Clady.

There's an explanation in post 55 if you're interested.

While I think that Rodgers-Cromartie is the best CB in the draft, it would be real easy to see any of them be the 1st off the board depending on the team, and the scheme they play.

(post #55) Fair enough. Who do you think is the next OT on the board?

I agree with the CB's. There doesnt seem to be a clear cut leader. The rankings are pretty spread evenly amongst them. I cant remember ever seeing so much disparity amongst top picks. Again, we in all likelyhood wont have to worry about the top 3-4 CB's regardless.

[Chiefnj2]

(post #55) I cant remember ever seeing so much disparity amongst top picks.

That's what happens in a bad draft class. There will probably be a lot of surprises and so called "reaches" in the first 2 rounds.

[OnTheWarpath15]

(post #55) Fair enough. Who do you think is the next OT on the board?

I agree with the CB's. There doesnt seem to be a clear cut leader. The rankings are pretty spread evenly amongst them. I cant remember ever seeing so much disparity amongst top picks. Again, we in all likelyhood wont have to worry about the top 3-4 CB's regardless.

Chris Williams is next on my board. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he's the 2nd tackle off the board.

If you want a PURE LT, who has dominated against the toughest competition in the country, who also happens to be extremely intelligent, then Williams is the guy.

I've never been a fan of Clady's, and after finding out that he's as dumb as a box of rocks, I'm not interested. He was less than dominant playing inferior competition and scored a ****ing 13 on the Wonderlic.

Which means he either:

a) Isn't intelligent in the least.

b) Didn't even bother to look over the sample tests his agent gave him.

So, either he's stupid, or he didn't bother to take the test seriously and prepare. Is he going to prepare when he's getting paid?

[OnTheWarpath15]

That's what happens in a bad draft class. There will probably be a lot of surprises and so called "reaches" in the first 2 rounds.

JMO, but I wouldn't call it a "bad" class.

It's by far the deepest draft in many years.

I'd call it "solid, but unspectacular."

[melbar]

That's what happens in a bad draft class. There will probably be a lot of surprises and so called "reaches" in the first 2 rounds.

I thought this was a pretty decent CB class. Not a top half of the 1st round class but probably 9 bottom 1st to 2nd round quality CB's. Just no clear cut "star" at the top.

[melbar]

JMO, but I wouldn't call it a "bad" class.

It's by far the deepest draft in many years.

I'd call it "solid, but unspectacular."

I agree. Total draft has a lot of pretty "solid" guys in the first few rounds. Last couple of years seemed to get signifigantly weaker by the beginning of the 2nd round.

[melbar]

Chris Williams is next on my board. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he's the 2nd tackle off the board.

If you want a PURE LT, who has dominated against the toughest competition in the country, who also happens to be extremely intelligent, then Williams is the guy.

I've never been a fan of Clady's, and after finding out that he's as dumb as a box of rocks, I'm not interested. He was less than dominant playing inferior competition and scored a ****ing 13 on the Wonderlic.

Which means he either:

a) Isn't intelligent in the least.

b) Didn't even bother to look over the sample tests his agent gave him.

So, either he's stupid, or he didn't bother to take the test seriously and prepare. Is he going to prepare when he's getting paid?


Good point. Missed the wonderlick thing. You may be right about Williams. Makes you wonder about him not taking it again with such a bad showing.

[Rain Man]

I must admit, when I was watching the combine for offensive linemen and knowing nothing about any of the players at that point, I was thinking, "Wow, that Chris Williams guy is impressive" in the movement drills. He's moving up my draft board, and if I actually had a football team, I'd rank him in the middle of the first round or maybe even slightly higher.