The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 12:58 PM

For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent.

WHY?

Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round.

Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT.

And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders:

Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT.

1997 and 2002.

FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2007 x 3
2005 x 3
2001 x 2
2000 x 3

Direckshun · 03-30-2008, 01:14 PM

RustShack · 03-30-2008, 01:23 PM

But but every first LT taken every year is a HOFer..

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Who are these people who are "LT or bust in R1"?

Please tell me you're kidding.

I spent 1/2 hour researching this, I'm not spending the rest of my day digging up the hundreds of posts that advocate taking a LT with our first pick no matter who it is, all based on need.

I know you're more in tune to this place than you've lead on with that question.

RustShack · 03-30-2008, 01:24 PM

Must be his first time on the internet...

Hoover · 03-30-2008, 01:27 PM

I think your "LT in R1 or Bust" group is a myth. From everything I've read on this BB most people want to go Jake Long , Ellis, or Dorsey at number 5. Thats far from being LT or Bust in my opinion. Now I agree with you, and I think a lot of other do to that we don't want to see the Chiefs reach in at #5 for a LT not names Long.

RustShack · 03-30-2008, 01:28 PM

I still think Long is a reach at #5... I hope hes gone.

keg in kc · 03-30-2008, 01:34 PM

I'm trying to figure out which one of you is voyager, or if you're all voyager on multiple accounts.

pikesome · 03-30-2008, 01:34 PM

Depends on the kind of Bust we're getting instead of Long.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

I think your "LT in R1 or Bust" group is a myth. From everything I've read on this BB most people want to go Jake Long , Ellis, or Dorsey at number 5. Thats far from being LT or Bust in my opinion. Now I agree with you, and I think a lot of other do to that we don't want to see the Chiefs reach in at #5 for a LT not names Long.

Have you not seen all the people who want to trade down to take Clady or Otah, or worse yet, take them at 5?

That's LT or Bust at its finest. Passing on greater talent for lesser talent, based purely on need.

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 01:38 PM

Let me clear something up.

This isn't about Jake Long. IF, and that's a BIG IF, Jake Long is there at #5, he's possibly the BPA, and I'm fine with taking him.

I think if we all take our homer glasses off, we can all agree that Long falling to the 5 slot is a longshot at best.

Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5.

That thought process is the epitome of LT or Bust. Passing on a greater talent for a lesser talent, based solely on need alone.

eazyb81 · 03-30-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Have you not seen all the people who want to trade down to take Clady or Otah, or worse yet, take them at 5?

That's LT or Bust at its finest. Passing on greater talent for lesser talent, based purely on need.

How are those people "LT or Bust"? Maybe they don't feel Clady or Otah is a massive, franchise-killing reach at 5?

**OnTheWarpath15** · 03-30-2008, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

How are those people "LT or Bust"? Maybe they don't feel Clady or Otah is a massive, franchise-killing reach at 5?

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.

keg in kc · 03-30-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Do you consider Clady or Otah to be a better prospect that Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis or Matt Ryan?

Because you'd be passing on at LEAST one of them to draft Clady or Otah.

You don't think Clady or Otah is worth 5 and I don't think Clady or Otah is worth 5, but neither your opinion nor my opinion nor anything that any site run by a so-called 'draft expert' says means that somebody else isn't entitled to believe something different. Maybe they think Dorsey's an injury risk, maybe they think Ryan's not a pro prospect, maybe they think Clady or Otah are underrated and would be the best player on the board. Whatever it is, I doubt seriously it's "LT or Bust in R1, regardless of value or talent".

Hell, for all we know, the consensus among NFL teams may be that Clady or Otah is really the best tackle in the draft, and Jake Long's going to drop to 30. We have no way of knowing.

blueballs · 03-30-2008, 01:59 PM

What happened to the What if guy
day after day of threads of What if

03-30-2008, 12:58 PM
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4901115	The "LT or Bust in R1" fallacy For MONTHS there have been guys that have advocated taking a LT in Round 1, regardless of value or talent. WHY? Because many feel that the only way to get a starting LT is to do so in the 1st round. Apparently, not all NFL teams feel the same. TWENTY teams in the league have starting LT's that were drafted in the 2nd round or later. That leaves 12 teams, or 37% of the league with a R1 LT. And here's an interesting note regarding those 12 1st rounders: Only TWICE in the past ELEVEN years has a draft's 1st round produced more than ONE starting LT. 1997 and 2002. FOUR of the last EIGHT drafts produced multiple starters in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 2007 x 3 2005 x 3 2001 x 2 2000 x 3
Posts: 60,264

03-30-2008, 01:14 PM	#2
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4353447	+1
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03-30-2008, 01:23 PM	#3
RustShack **** That Noise Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Jack Trice Casino cash: $4676954	But but every first LT taken every year is a HOFer.. __________________
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03-30-2008, 01:24 PM	#5
RustShack **** That Noise Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Jack Trice Casino cash: $4676954	Must be his first time on the internet... __________________
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03-30-2008, 01:27 PM	#6
Hoover Rufus Dawes Jr. Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $1638179	I think your "LT in R1 or Bust" group is a myth. From everything I've read on this BB most people want to go Jake Long , Ellis, or Dorsey at number 5. Thats far from being LT or Bust in my opinion. Now I agree with you, and I think a lot of other do to that we don't want to see the Chiefs reach in at #5 for a LT not names Long.
Posts: 17,360

03-30-2008, 01:28 PM	#7
RustShack **** That Noise Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Jack Trice Casino cash: $4676954	I still think Long is a reach at #5... I hope hes gone. __________________
Posts: 15,049

03-30-2008, 01:34 PM	#8
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	I'm trying to figure out which one of you is voyager, or if you're all voyager on multiple accounts.
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03-30-2008, 01:34 PM	#9
pikesome PEW PEW Join Date: May 2005 Casino cash: $10004900	Depends on the kind of Bust we're getting instead of Long. __________________ 4. Performance enhancing drugs: A) are my ticket to the Hall of Fame. B) would be better if they tasted like fruit and were shaped like various Flintstones characters. C) are not for me, because I find that cocaine aids my performance much more effectively. D) apparently worked for Rodney Harrison.
Posts: 5,191

03-30-2008, 01:38 PM	#11
OnTheWarpath15 MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $4901115	Let me clear something up. This isn't about Jake Long. IF, and that's a BIG IF, Jake Long is there at #5, he's possibly the BPA, and I'm fine with taking him. I think if we all take our homer glasses off, we can all agree that Long falling to the 5 slot is a longshot at best. Based on that, there are plenty of folks who are hell bent on either trading down to grab Clady or Otah, or worse yet, taking one of them at #5. That thought process is the epitome of LT or Bust. Passing on a greater talent for a lesser talent, based solely on need alone.
Posts: 60,264

03-30-2008, 01:59 PM	#15
blueballs Banned Join Date: Feb 2006 Casino cash: $10004900	What happened to the What if guy day after day of threads of What if
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