NFL Draft College stats don't lie (QB's) - Page 7

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:27 PM

There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it.

As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback.

However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith.

Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds.

What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft.

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate)

A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey.

Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it.

Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate)

The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games.

Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong.

Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus.

Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate)

Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm.

Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional.

That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...

Prince22 · 04-24-2008, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Yes he does, we argued about it forever.

That's hilarious. But on the subject of UK wide recievers, I'd love to have Stevie Johnson or Kennan Burton. I know I have my Blue shades on but these two will be a bargain. I worry about Kennan's health issues but I'd love to get Stevie late in the draft. He's a leader in the locker room

**banyon** · 04-24-2008, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prince22

NCAA record 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 61% completion percentage, SEC record 40 passing TD's and yet only one person here as even mentioned Andre Woodson.

Draft him in the 3rd and sit for a year and we got ourselves a steal.

I could accept Woodson. I hear a lot of people knock his release, but he's kind of the Anti-Joe Flacco, he managed to deliver passes against the best pass rushers and CB's in college, so I'm not worried as much that he'd be overwhelmed.

Prince22 · 04-24-2008, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by banyon

I could accept Woodson. I hear a lot of people knock his release, but he's kind of the Anti-Joe Flacco, he managed to deliver passes against the best pass rushers and CB's in college, so I'm not worried as much that he'd be overwhelmed.

There's no question about it, he has a slow release. Thats why he needs to sit and learn his first year wherever he goes. And with our rebuilding of the offensive line, it would make sense. But then again, who the hell is he going to learn from? I honestly see him going to the Jags. I'd be OK with that.

Micjones · 04-24-2008, 11:07 PM

I'm salivating at the chance to draft either Ryan, Brohm or Henne.

JBucc · 04-24-2008, 11:28 PM

You can never tell who might have a great year and shoot up, but yeah next year's QB class looks pitiful. If we really have no faith in Brodie a QB this year really is a must, from Herm's POV. I don't even think Stafford or Tebow will come out next year. After that things get better with the aforementioned Stafford, Bradford, Sanchez.

Then of course in 2011, maybe 12 the next generation of NFL QB's begins with
<----------------------

UncleChief83 · 04-24-2008, 11:29 PM

next years QB class wont be better. Tebow is ok, but he doesnt have the same fundamentals as Ryan. Ryan is built to be a pro QB and has great mechanics, it would be harder for Tebow to adjust to the NFL i believe.

I wanted to point out...Hell, im from Fresno, CA and i have seen first hand a great college QB in David Carr who couldnt adjust to the NFL. Carr was an awesome QB in college, but sometimes you have to go after QBs who have the fundamentals over QBs who had great college years and stats. Almost like Vince Young, great college QB, but an ok pro player.

hope some of you agree with me

stlchiefs · 04-25-2008, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleChief83

I wanted to point out...Hell, im from Fresno, CA and i have seen first hand a great college QB in David Carr who couldnt adjust to the NFL. Carr was an awesome QB in college, but sometimes you have to go after QBs who have the fundamentals over QBs who had great college years and stats. Almost like Vince Young, great college QB, but an ok pro player.

hope some of you agree with me

Yep, this is where the scouts need to be able to evaluate how the player's skills will translate to the pro game. If a team gets this wrong with an early pick it can screw them for a number of years. That's the last thing the Chiefs need right now, we're already screwed for a number of years as it is and don't need anymore tacked on to that.

SBK · 04-25-2008, 01:06 AM

Personally I like Brohm of the big QB prospects, but I'm not an expert on any of them. I have seen Henne a lot and I see Grbackup when I watch him. He never impressed me at all....

PhillyChiefFan · 04-25-2008, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleChief83

next years QB class wont be better. Tebow is ok, but he doesnt have the same fundamentals as Ryan. Ryan is built to be a pro QB and has great mechanics, it would be harder for Tebow to adjust to the NFL i believe.

I wanted to point out...Hell, im from Fresno, CA and i have seen first hand a great college QB in David Carr who couldnt adjust to the NFL. Carr was an awesome QB in college, but sometimes you have to go after QBs who have the fundamentals over QBs who had great college years and stats. Almost like Vince Young, great college QB, but an ok pro player.

hope some of you agree with me

First off, welcome to the planet!
I would agree with you. That is why I like Ryan, Brohm, and to a lesser extent Henne. Flacco is a flash in the pan, IMO. But I'm sure someone somewhere said that about Jerry Rice as a receiver. Course there was another Delaware QB that we had, and he did pretty well for us...

Mecca · 04-25-2008, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhillyChiefFan

First off, welcome to the planet!
I would agree with you. That is why I like Ryan, Brohm, and to a lesser extent Henne. Flacco is a flash in the pan, IMO. But I'm sure someone somewhere said that about Jerry Rice as a receiver. Course there was another Delaware QB that we had, and he did pretty well for us...

Rice didn't transfer out because he couldn't beat out another player like Flacco did.

stlchiefs · 04-25-2008, 02:37 PM

Flacco pulled a Trent Green ala 2007 offseason.

muddyjello · 04-25-2008, 02:43 PM

I like Chad Henne.

**Dave Lane** · 04-25-2008, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

Damn, I hope not. I consider Henne the second coming of Drew Henson.

I agree. It also worries me he had the best LT in football guarding his blind side and that had to pad his stats.

Dave

eazyb81 · 04-25-2008, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhillyChiefFan

First off, welcome to the planet!
I would agree with you. That is why I like Ryan, Brohm, and to a lesser extent Henne. Flacco is a flash in the pan, IMO. But I'm sure someone somewhere said that about Jerry Rice as a receiver. Course there was another Delaware QB that we had, and he did pretty well for us...

Weren't you the one saying we didn't need a QB this year because next year's class was full of QBs and we need to give Brodie a chance?

**Mr. Kotter** · 04-25-2008, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

I agree. It also worries me he had the best LT in football guarding his blind side and that had to pad his stats.

Dave

If they are thinking Henne, I hope someone else grabs him before we do....I'd just as soon take Booty a bit later if we are going to hedge our bets on Croyle.

04-24-2008, 08:27 PM
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-712950	College stats don't lie (QB's) There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results. All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance. That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be. Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it. As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback. However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith. Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds. What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft. Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate) Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced. Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk. Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate) A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey. Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it. Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate) The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games. Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong. Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus. Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate) Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm. Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional. That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...
Posts: 115,380

04-24-2008, 11:07 PM	#94
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	I'm salivating at the chance to draft either Ryan, Brohm or Henne.
Posts: 15,344

04-24-2008, 11:28 PM	#95
JBucc MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Casino cash: $10004952	You can never tell who might have a great year and shoot up, but yeah next year's QB class looks pitiful. If we really have no faith in Brodie a QB this year really is a must, from Herm's POV. I don't even think Stafford or Tebow will come out next year. After that things get better with the aforementioned Stafford, Bradford, Sanchez. Then of course in 2011, maybe 12 the next generation of NFL QB's begins with <----------------------
Posts: 12,016

04-24-2008, 11:29 PM	#96
UncleChief83 Rookie Join Date: Apr 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	next years QB class wont be better. Tebow is ok, but he doesnt have the same fundamentals as Ryan. Ryan is built to be a pro QB and has great mechanics, it would be harder for Tebow to adjust to the NFL i believe. I wanted to point out...Hell, im from Fresno, CA and i have seen first hand a great college QB in David Carr who couldnt adjust to the NFL. Carr was an awesome QB in college, but sometimes you have to go after QBs who have the fundamentals over QBs who had great college years and stats. Almost like Vince Young, great college QB, but an ok pro player. hope some of you agree with me
Posts: 15

04-25-2008, 01:06 AM	#98
SBK Curry is the pick??? Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia Casino cash: $10004900	Personally I like Brohm of the big QB prospects, but I'm not an expert on any of them. I have seen Henne a lot and I see Grbackup when I watch him. He never impressed me at all....
Posts: 8,153

04-25-2008, 02:37 PM	#101
stlchiefs Veteran Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: St. Loser, MO Casino cash: $10005674	Flacco pulled a Trent Green ala 2007 offseason.
Posts: 4,160

04-25-2008, 02:43 PM	#102
muddyjello Banned Join Date: Apr 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	I like Chad Henne.
Posts: 30