NFL Draft College stats don't lie (QB's) - Page 6

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:27 PM

There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it.

As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback.

However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith.

Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds.

What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft.

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate)

A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey.

Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it.

Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate)

The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games.

Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong.

Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus.

Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate)

Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm.

Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional.

That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...

'Hamas' Jenkins · 04-24-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

I think Tebow will be better than anyone in this draft.

This is why I don't respect your opinion on football matters.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

I think Tebow will be better than anyone in this draft, with Stafford comparable in talent to Ryan, but they havn't even played a down. None of us know shit about what they'll become.

Well I think you're nuts seeing as Tebow is in the spread option under Meyer and well that did wonders for Alex Smith..

Tebow also has the worst mechanics I may have ever seen he throws like a baseball pitcher.

**Mr. Kotter** · 04-24-2008, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

He may have the worst mechanics I've ever seen. Ever. I seriously have better mechanics than Tim Tebow, and I'm a mediocre pick up quarterback.

How many Heisman's you got though?

Pablo · 04-24-2008, 10:25 PM

I think the only way Tebow comes to KC is if we makes jorts part of the official uniform. If you want a big quarterback who hurls the ball like a shotput and looks to run up your centers ass, you go after Tebow. Todd Boeckman may be the best QB in next years class, and he's mediocre at best. Next years class is garbage, and if anyone thinks Chase Daniel or Todd Reesing are NFL caliber QB's, your homer goggles must be fully dialed in. Daniel might make a roster, undrafted, then play on a practice squad for a season before being cut for good and going back to CoMo to open a Chevy dealership and sell pickups to eager Mizzou fans, happy to get a handshake, a photo, and an autographed football with their brand new mistake of a vehicle.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 04-24-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

How many Heisman's you got though?

Hey, the guy's got a great arm and he's a really good athlete, but that's not what makes an NFL QB.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 04-24-2008, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GonzoRox88

I think the only way Tebow comes to KC is if we makes jorts part of the official uniform. If you want a big quarterback who hurls the ball like a shotput and looks to run up your centers ass, you go after Tebow. Todd Boeckman may be the best QB in next years class, and he's mediocre at best. Next years class is garbage, and if anyone thinks Chase Daniel or Todd Reesing are NFL caliber QB's, your homer goggles must be fully dialed in. Daniel might make a roster, undrafted, then play on a practice squad for a season before being cut for good and going back to CoMo to open a Chevy dealership and sell pickups to eager Mizzou fans, happy to get a handshake, a photo, and an autographed football with their brand new mistake of a vehicle.

There are pretty much 10 levels of awesomeness in this post, and I'm a Mizzou fan.

Prince22 · 04-24-2008, 10:37 PM

NCAA record 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 61% completion percentage, SEC record 40 passing TD's and yet only one person here as even mentioned Andre Woodson.

Draft him in the 3rd and sit for a year and we got ourselves a steal.

Pablo · 04-24-2008, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

There are pretty much 10 levels of awesomeness in this post, and I'm a Mizzou fan.

I'm a KU fan obviously..but I realize Reesing is a good college QB and will be nothing else. Daniel is a pretty nice college QB, but until NFL teams start running the shotgun offense every snap, so Samwise Daniel can see over his line, there's no chance. I really didn't watch a whole lot of MU football, just a few games, namely the two OU games, those were pretty sweet, and I just don't get why everyone is so high on Rucker. I saw Coffman(sp?) and thought he was pretty solid, but it looked like Rucker tipped a few balls and just didn't have great hands. Good size, not great hands. Am I wrong? or just didn't watch enough of him?

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prince22

NCAA record 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 61% completion percentage, SEC record 40 passing TD's and yet only one person here as even mentioned Andre Woodson.

Draft him in the 3rd and sit for a year and we got ourselves a steal.

Shhh, Mmaddog is gonna come in here and tell us he'll only make it as a WR, I'm not kidding either yes it's ludicrous but he believes that.

Pablo · 04-24-2008, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prince22

NCAA record 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 61% completion percentage, SEC record 40 passing TD's and yet only one person here as even mentioned Andre Woodson.

Draft him in the 3rd and sit for a year and we got ourselves a steal.

That's because DaKCman has made us collectively hate the SEC.

beach tribe · 04-24-2008, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

This is why I don't respect your opinion on football matters.

I watched every throw he made this year. How many did you see in KC.

FTR you don't respect anyone's opinion, but Mecca's, and that because it falls in line with your own.

Prince22 · 04-24-2008, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Shhh, Mmaddog is gonna come in here and tell us he'll only make it as a WR, I'm not kidding either yes it's ludicrous but he believes that.

Does he seriously believe that? Lorenzen was faster than Andre

'Hamas' Jenkins · 04-24-2008, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GonzoRox88

I'm a KU fan obviously..but I realize Reesing is a good college QB and will be nothing else. Daniel is a pretty nice college QB, but until NFL teams start running the shotgun offense every snap, so Samwise Daniel can see over his line, there's no chance. I really didn't watch a whole lot of MU football, just a few games, namely the two OU games, those were pretty sweet, and I just don't get why everyone is so high on Rucker. I saw Coffman(sp?) and thought he was pretty solid, but it looked like Rucker tipped a few balls and just didn't have great hands. Good size, not great hands. Am I wrong? or just didn't watch enough of him?

Rucker could be a good player if used in the right role with the right team. He's not going to be Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, but he could make a very nice safety valve and RZ target. He also needs to focus on becoming a more complete player. He's a one dimensional threat right now.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prince22

Does he seriously believe that? Lorenzen was faster than Andre

Yes he does, we argued about it forever.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 04-24-2008, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

I watched every throw he made this year. How many did you see in KC.

FTR you don't respect anyone's opinion, but Mecca's, and that because it falls in line with your own.

Actually, Direckshun, OTW, htis, Sure-Oz, JBucc, pestilence, BigChiefFan all have great opinions, and you should look over the draft thread because Mecca and I had arguments about

Chad Henne, Matt Ryan, and Justin King.

Once again, you don't know WTF you are talking about.

04-24-2008, 08:27 PM
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-742950	College stats don't lie (QB's) There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results. All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance. That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be. Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it. As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback. However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith. Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds. What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft. Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate) Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced. Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk. Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate) A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey. Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it. Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate) The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games. Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong. Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus. Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate) Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm. Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional. That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...
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04-24-2008, 10:25 PM	#79
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Northland Casino cash: $-1930644	I think the only way Tebow comes to KC is if we makes jorts part of the official uniform. If you want a big quarterback who hurls the ball like a shotput and looks to run up your centers ass, you go after Tebow. Todd Boeckman may be the best QB in next years class, and he's mediocre at best. Next years class is garbage, and if anyone thinks Chase Daniel or Todd Reesing are NFL caliber QB's, your homer goggles must be fully dialed in. Daniel might make a roster, undrafted, then play on a practice squad for a season before being cut for good and going back to CoMo to open a Chevy dealership and sell pickups to eager Mizzou fans, happy to get a handshake, a photo, and an autographed football with their brand new mistake of a vehicle.
Posts: 43,956

04-24-2008, 10:37 PM	#82
Prince22 Starter Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Lexington KY Casino cash: $3624910	NCAA record 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 61% completion percentage, SEC record 40 passing TD's and yet only one person here as even mentioned Andre Woodson. Draft him in the 3rd and sit for a year and we got ourselves a steal. __________________ Tayshaun 5 straight threes vs UNC - http://home.fuse.net/eCat/hittinitdeep.wmv
Posts: 569