Hey programmer types

DJ's left nut · 04-01-2022, 08:14 AM

How hard would it be to build a 'mock probability' simulator?

Pest has been taking guys at certain spots we know would be available later in that mock but not terribly likely in real life. We're trying to reverse reality.

So what you would do is you would select a team, put in who you would take at each round, the sim would run like 100 mock drafts and spit out the odds at each selection of that player being available to you based on the mock drafts.

So lets say you select the first four rounds for the Chiefs and enter:

Ojabo
Travis Jones
Sam Williams
Tolbert
Greg Dulcich
Troy Anderson

And then tell it to run

And it spits out something like:

Ojabo (60%)
Jones (60%)
Williams (80%)
Tolbert (70%)
Dulcich (80%)
Anderson (90%)

Then it gives you a combined probability result to determine your 'score'.

And you can do whatever you want. If you decide you're going to put Aiden Hutchsinon to the Chiefs in the 4th round, you can do that. It's just going to give you a 0% chance for that pick and bomb out your whole draft grade if you do it.

I think it would be a damn neat tool to incorporate into some of these mock simulations. And hell, it could almost have some commercial potential if teams or even guys like McShay that want to put out these mocks every week utilized it to start to come up with more holistic outcomes.

I almost wonder if CD's draft simulator within Sandbox might be a viable starting point. But I don't know that it has an actual AI of any sort - it just defaults to draft order.

04-01-2022, 08:14 AM	Topic Starter
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-790901	Hey programmer types How hard would it be to build a 'mock probability' simulator? Pest has been taking guys at certain spots we know would be available later in that mock but not terribly likely in real life. We're trying to reverse reality. So what you would do is you would select a team, put in who you would take at each round, the sim would run like 100 mock drafts and spit out the odds at each selection of that player being available to you based on the mock drafts. So lets say you select the first four rounds for the Chiefs and enter: Ojabo Travis Jones Sam Williams Tolbert Greg Dulcich Troy Anderson And then tell it to run And it spits out something like: Ojabo (60%) Jones (60%) Williams (80%) Tolbert (70%) Dulcich (80%) Anderson (90%) Then it gives you a combined probability result to determine your 'score'. And you can do whatever you want. If you decide you're going to put Aiden Hutchsinon to the Chiefs in the 4th round, you can do that. It's just going to give you a 0% chance for that pick and bomb out your whole draft grade if you do it. I think it would be a damn neat tool to incorporate into some of these mock simulations. And hell, it could almost have some commercial potential if teams or even guys like McShay that want to put out these mocks every week utilized it to start to come up with more holistic outcomes. I almost wonder if CD's draft simulator within Sandbox might be a viable starting point. But I don't know that it has an actual AI of any sort - it just defaults to draft order.
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