Hey programmer types

[kepp]

The logic behind it wouldn't be difficult to code. It's the underlying data that needs to carefully considered. You need a source or truth...or as close to a source of truth as you can get. Otherwise you're just randomly selecting. You'd need a source of truth for player rankings, team needs, front office/GM draft tendencies...the list goes on. All this is highly subjective.

The only subjective part in the code would be the formula to calculate the probability of each pick because you would have to decide the weight given to each data point in the overall calculation. The rest of the code would just be cycling through the rounds applying that formula.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by kepp

The logic behind it wouldn't be difficult to code. It's the underlying data that needs to carefully considered. You need a source or truth...or as close to a source of truth as you can get. Otherwise you're just randomly selecting. You'd need a source of truth for player rankings, team needs, front office/GM draft tendencies...the list goes on. All this is highly subjective.

The only subjective part in the code would be the formula to calculate the probability of each pick because you would have to decide the weight given to each data point in the overall calculation. The rest of the code would just be cycling through the rounds applying that formula.

This is also why using these mock tools are a crapshoot.

GMs make stupid decisions. GMs also don't just draft need or make ridiculous trade demands all the time. I've seen mocks where Jermaine Johnson falls to 29. I've also seen mocks where teams throw a bunch of picks to move up and take Jermaine Johnson at 8 or 9.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kepp

The logic behind it wouldn't be difficult to code. It's the underlying data that needs to carefully considered. You need a source or truth...or as close to a source of truth as you can get. Otherwise you're just randomly selecting. You'd need a source of truth for player rankings, team needs, front office/GM draft tendencies...the list goes on. All this is highly subjective.

The only subjective part in the code would be the formula to calculate the probability of each pick because you would have to decide the weight given to each data point in the overall calculation. The rest of the code would just be cycling through the rounds applying that formula.

Yeah, I think you'd want to do as much 'wisdom of crowds' as you possibly can here. And then lean into the law of large numbers.

If you can get several reliable sources in compiling your source board (and yeah, 'reliable' would be open to interpretation) and then run dozens of sims in creating the results, then you'd be combining the collective wisdom of several knowledgeable individuals and then using large numbers to iron out the randomness of the results.