Luckiest teams

[dlphg9]

https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/a...-of-nfl-teams/

The main reason I post this is because of the dropped int stat. The higher the number the more lucky a QB has been. Buffalo fans like to act like Mahomes has all these dropped INTs and he's middle of the pack at 0.26.

Look at the two highest, the only 2 above .36;

Buffalo Bills - 0.49
Tampa Bay Bucs - 0.61

Seems like Joshy and Tommy boy have gotten a lot of help with defenders dropping INTs.

[Buehler445]

That stat is BS. Tua had like 6 dropped INTs in one game.

[Bearcat]

Seems like a nice idea that was given like 10 minutes to put something together... hopefully they're actually digging into those a bit more since it's not nearly as black and white as their descriptions.

Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an interception, you get lucky. We assume that the intercepting team keeps possession at the spot of the drop.

Dropped Pass (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops a pass, you get lucky. We assume the offense would gain yards after catch using the Next Gen Stats Expected YAC model.

Field Goals and Extra Points (attempted by opponent): When an opponent misses a kick, you get lucky, and when your opponent makes a kick, you get unlucky. Field goal make probabilities are based on the Next Gen Stats Field Goal Probability model.

Fumble Recoveries (by either team): When a team recovers a fumble, there’s a chance the luck of the bounce was involved. Fumble recovery probabilities are based on observed recovery percentages by when the fumble occurred (i.e., after a catch, during a rush, fumbled snap, muffed punt).

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Seems like a nice idea that was given like 10 minutes to put something together... hopefully they're actually digging into those a bit more since it's not nearly as black and white as their descriptions.

I just liked the dropped int stat. I wish there was a site with more advanced stats

[JustDíqLix]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

That stat is BS. Tua had like 6 dropped INTs in one game.

The problem with stuff like this is that It’s so subjective. Who gets to determine what’s a dropped INT vs what is an INT that couldn’t be caught because the QB put it in a place where the defender only got 1 hand on it? Is there a definition for what they used? Doubt it.

It also doesn’t take into account INT’s brought back due to defensive penalty, which is a extremely lucky occurrence and some QB’s get more than their fair share of those.

[smithandrew051]

Chiefs are the most unlucky imo, because the refs always try to make us lose so that the league is interesting to watch.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I just liked the dropped int stat. I wish there was a site with more advanced stats

Definitely, especially when you see Mahomes throwing rockets... it's not "luck" that a defender can't catch one of those.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by JustRyan

The problem with stuff like this is that It’s so subjective. Who gets to determine what’s a dropped INT vs what is an INT that couldn’t be caught because the QB put it in a place where the defender only got 1 hand on it? Is there a definition for what they used? Doubt it.

It also doesn’t take into account INT’s brought back due to defensive penalty, which is a extremely lucky occurrence and some QB’s get more than their fair share of those.

On the second part, I have to disagree somewhat. You approach it as if the QB doesn't know that a penalty has been called, or will be called, against the defense. I often see Patrick throw the ball deep into coverage because he is 100% certain there is a penalty on the defense and he is just seeing if he can get lucky. Not all interceptions are of this type, but many are.