What's wrong with Mecole Hardman - Part 2

[dlphg9]

Spoiler alert!

Nothing is wrong with him! Unless you consider Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as being a problem.

Mecole was 3rd on the team in targets (62), rec yards (560), and rec TDs (4). Those stats are right in line with any other teams 3rd most productive receiver and none of those other teams had 2 guys that were 1st team AP in front of that guy.

Green Bay Packers #1 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Robert Tonyan - 59 targets, 52 rec, 586 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 212
Rec - 148
Yards - 2064

Buffalo Bills #2 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Gabriel Davis - 62 targets, 35 rec, 599 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 273
Rec - 209
Yards - 2502

Tampa Bay Buccaneers #3 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Rob Gronkowski - 77 targets, 45 rec, 623 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 193
Rec - 135
Yards - 1846

Tennessee Titans #4 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Jonnu Smith - 65 targets, 41 rec, 448 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 198
Rec - 135
Yards - 2059

New Orleans Saints #5 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Jared Cook - 60 targets, 37 rec, 504 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 189
Rec - 144
Yards - 1482

Baltimore Ravens #7 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Willie Snead - 48 targets, 33 rec, 432 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 188
Rec - 116
Yards - 1470

Seattle Seahawks #8 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
David Moore - 47 targets, 35 rec, 417 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 261
Rec - 183
Yards - 2357

Indianapolis Colts #9 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Michael Pittman Jr. - 61 targets, 40 rec, 503 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 164
Rec - 99
Yards - 1391

Las Vegas Raiders #10 ranked scoring offense
3rd most productive receiving option
Hunter Renfrow - 77 targets, 56 rec, 656 yds

Top 2 options
Targets - 227
Rec - 155
Yards - 2092

Average for top 10 scoring offense's 3rd most productive receiving option :

Targets - 62
Receptions - 41
Yards - 530

Average for top 10 scoring offense's top 2 most productive receiving options combined :

Targets - 212
Receptions - 147
Yards - 1918


This is how Hardman stacks up against the other teams 3rd receiving option

Targets - 62 (62 avg)
Receptions - 41 (41 avg)
Yards - 560 (530 avg)

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined

Targets - 280 (most in group)
Receptions - 192 (2nd most in group)
Yards - 2692 (most in group)

So what we can see from these stats above is that nothing is up with Mecole Hardman. His targets and reception matched the average of the 9 other top offenses 3rd receiving option and he was above average in yards, but the big huge difference is Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill just happen to be on the same team as him. Those two have 68 more combined targets, 45 more combined receptions, and 774 more combined yards than the others teams top 2 receiving threats.

TLDR;

Nothing is wrong, he's right in line with the other teams 3rd most productive pass catchers. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are monsters and the best pass catching duo in a long ass time.

PS:

Seriously Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are so good! There was only 11 QBs with more TD passes than those 2 had receiving TDs.

PSS:

****ing Cam Newton started 15 games and had 45 less passing yards than Hill and Kelce had rec yards in the same amount of games!

PSSS:

****ing MVP Lamar had 65 more passing yards than Hill and Kelce had rec yards and they tied for the same amount of passing TDs to receiving TDs.

[In58men]

You put a lot of effort into this and for that, I appreciate you.

[jallmon]

Thank you for collecting these stats. Mecole stacks up well with them.

However, stats don't always tell the whole story, IMHO. How many drops or misplays? Now, what is the context of those drops? On 1st and 10? or on 3rd and 10? Or on 4th and 10? How many plays where you don't look back at the qb, who is scrambling for his life and counting on you to make a catch? These are the things that would be hard/impossible to quantify, but they are very maddening for the fanbase, and cause us to say things about his receiving abilities that his pure stats don't show. Again, IMHO

[In58men]

Originally Posted by jallmon

Thank you for collecting these stats. Mecole stacks up well with them.

However, stats don't always tell the whole story, IMHO. How many drops or misplays? Now, what is the context of those drops? On 1st and 10? or on 3rd and 10? Or on 4th and 10? How many plays where you don't look back at the qb, who is scrambling for his life and counting on you to make a catch? These are the things that would be hard/impossible to quantify, but they are very maddening for the fanbase, and cause us to say things about his receiving abilities that his pure stats don't show. Again, IMHO

Andre Johnson led the league in drop passes a couple times.

Ratio

[Dunerdr]

I think most peoples frustration with Mecole is him getting chewed on by Mahomes after a third and medium when the other two were double teamed, and Hardman usaully doesnt look for the ball or looks too late or just keeps streaking down the sideline instead of sitting down between zones.

[Valiant]

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

I think most peoples frustration with Mecole is him getting chewed on by Mahomes after a third and medium when the other two were double teamed, and Hardman usaully doesnt look for the ball or looks too late or just keeps streaking down the sideline instead of sitting down between zones.

He needs to spend this off season training with tyreek and improving his hands, routes and reads. He could be a Welker and tear up the middle. If Patrick is running, go to the opening.

He won't see a second contract from us unless he improves.

Still optimistic though.

I really want to trade up to ten and grab that top te this year.

[Chargem]

All this reveals is you shouldn't judge a player on the box score.

[scho63]

How many TDs for all those receivers?

How many drops for all?

Fumbles?

You did a great analysis, about 90-95% worth. Nice job.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

It's #17's fault & not because I warshed my lucky jersey. Uhmmm nachos

[-King-]

This is just like when Saints players try to convince themselves Taysom Hill isn't a gadget player by just posting his stats with no context

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by -King-

This is just like when Saints players try to convince themselves Taysom Hill isn't a gadget player by just posting his stats with no context

In what way is it the same, because I'm trying to find a way to make Taysom Hill look like more than a gadget player with his stats and I'm having an extremely hard time.

He's a WR/QB that has put up over the course of 53 games these stats:

Rec yds - 336
Rec tds - 7
Rush yds - 809
Rush tds - 11
Pass yds - 1047
Pass tds - 4
Pass ints - 3

Other than flukey TD numbers there isn't much to work with.

You ****ing people expect too much from a 2nd year WR who didn't even get an off-season going into his 2nd year. Whining because he's not Tyreek Hill is literally going to leave you disappointed, because there is only one of those in existence.

Posters bringing up how we should have drafted DK Metcalf in the other thread are pretty much brain dead. DK Metcalf would have stats comparable to Hardman's if he was on this team. Hell swap the two and Hardman would look like DK, because hed be on a team with an elite QB whose only weapon is Tyler ****ing Lockett. We'd have people whining that we should have drafted Hardman over DK.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

In what way is it the same, because I'm trying to find a way to make Taysom Hill look like more than a gadget player with his stats and I'm having an extremely hard time.

He's a WR/QB that has put up over the course of 53 games these stats:

Rec yds - 336
Rec tds - 7
Rush yds - 809
Rush tds - 11
Pass yds - 1047
Pass tds - 4
Pass ints - 3

Other than flukey TD numbers there isn't much to work with.

You ****ing people expect too much from a 2nd year WR who didn't even get an off-season going into his 2nd year. Whining because he's not Tyreek Hill is literally going to leave you disappointed, because there is only one of those in existence.

Posters bringing up how we should have drafted DK Metcalf in the other thread are pretty much brain dead. DK Metcalf would have stats comparable to Hardman's if he was on this team. Hell swap the two and Hardman would look like DK, because hed be on a team with an elite QB whose only weapon is Tyler ****ing Lockett. We'd have people whining that we should have drafted Hardman over DK.

you really think that? Metcalf improved from his rookie year and became one of the better WRs in the league. Hardman got worse and if not for the jet sweeps and pitch passes Reid draws up he'd look even worse.

My definition of a gadget player is a player who doesn't fit in the natural flow of the offense. A player who the coach has to draw up plays for them specifically because otherwise they won't get open or won't do the right things when it comes to reading defenses and running correct routes. That's Hardman to a tee. If he could get open naturally and could be a reliable WR, he would have been in the starting lineup when Watkins got hurt and he wouldn't be just the jet sweeps, pitch guy.

But yeah sure. Hardman could be a 1300 yard 10 TD WR like Metcalf but the coaches just choose not to utilize him and they give more snaps and targets to Robinson and Watkins just for shits and giggles. Yeah keep telling yourself that.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by -King-

you really think that? Metcalf improved from his rookie year and became one of the better WRs in the league. Hardman got worse and if not for the jet sweeps and pitch passes Reid draws up he'd look even worse.

My definition of a gadget player is a player who doesn't fit in the natural flow of the offense. A player who the coach has to draw up plays for them specifically because otherwise they won't get open or won't do the right things when it comes to reading defenses and running correct routes. That's Hardman to a tee. If he could get open naturally and could be a reliable WR, he would have been in the starting lineup when Watkins got hurt and he wouldn't be just the jet sweeps, pitch guy.

But yeah sure. Hardman could be a 1300 yard 10 TD WR like Metcalf but the coaches just choose not to utilize him and they give more snaps and targets to Robinson and Watkins just for shits and giggles. Yeah keep telling yourself that.

You think Metcalf is getting 100+ targets here like he is in Seattle? The situations that both players came into aren't even close. Mecole came into the league with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins ahead of him. Sure Sammy is injury prone like a mofo, but you can't deny he's talented as hell and the Chiefs made it clear that they believed he was a big time WR.

DK Metcalf was drafted onto a team that only had one other option, Tyler Lockett. The next best target is a TE who had a career year in 2019 with 349 yards.

To say Mecole didn't take a step forward is stupid as ****. He was 100% a gimmick player in 2019. He had 6 TDs and 538 yards on 26 receptions. This is gimmicky:

Scoring a TD nearly 25% of your receptions
20.7 yards per catch (Tyreek Hill's best ypc in a season is 17.0 and in that year he only scored on 14% of his catches)

Mecole increased his

Targets - 34%
Receptions - 37%
Catch rate - 3%
Yards - 4%

It just doesn't seem like he improved because his yards didn't take a dramatic increase and his TDs went down. That's due to him not just running down the field and catching bombs for TDs. He was gimmicky in 2019, the numbers prove that. 2020 numbers show an improvement.

I'm not an expert at watching WRs run routes and I'm not going to pretend to know more about something than I do. So, what I will do is look at and compare stats because I can tell something from those.

If someone wants to show me how he's declined or not progressed I'd be open to it. Lots of people on here like to act like they know a lot more than they do.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

You think Metcalf is getting 100+ targets here like he is in Seattle? The situations that both players came into aren't even close. Mecole came into the league with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins ahead of him. Sure Sammy is injury prone like a mofo, but you can't deny he's talented as hell and the Chiefs made it clear that they believed he was a big time WR.

DK Metcalf was drafted onto a team that only had one other option, Tyler Lockett. The next best target is a TE who had a career year in 2019 with 349 yards.

To say Mecole didn't take a step forward is stupid as ****. He was 100% a gimmick player in 2019. He had 6 TDs and 538 yards on 26 receptions. This is gimmicky:

Scoring a TD nearly 25% of your receptions
20.7 yards per catch (Tyreek Hill's best ypc in a season is 17.0 and in that year he only scored on 14% of his catches)

Mecole increased his

Targets - 34%
Receptions - 37%
Catch rate - 3%
Yards - 4%

It just doesn't seem like he improved because his yards didn't take a dramatic increase and his TDs went down. That's due to him not just running down the field and catching bombs for TDs. He was gimmicky in 2019, the numbers prove that. 2020 numbers show an improvement.

I'm not an expert at watching WRs run routes and I'm not going to pretend to know more about something than I do. So, what I will do is look at and compare stats because I can tell something from those.

If someone wants to show me how he's declined or not progressed I'd be open to it. Lots of people on here like to act like they know a lot more than they do.

No I don't think Metcalf would get all those receptions. What I do know is that he would start and be great when Watkins went down. I do know that when teams double Kelce and Hill, he'd be a great 3rd option. What I do know is that he'd take a lot of snaps and targets and receptions away from Robinson. Seriously, Robinson had more targets and receptions than Hardman. If not for the pitch plays which I will say Hardman is really good for, robinson might have had more yards and the same number of touchdowns.

And I don't know how you don't think Hardman was better in 2019. His efficiency was nuts that year. He had basically the same number of yards and less touchdowns despite 20 more targets and receptions this year. That's not an upgrade.

I can't believe you think Hardman would be capable of 1300 yards 10 TDs and yet the coaches give more snaps to Robinson. Lol what sense does that make?

[notorious]

Nothing is wrong with him except being the dumbest football IQ on the field at any given time.