2023 Cap Discussion

[Dante84]

If we were to absolutely max out all restructures, we would have almost $119M in cap space according to Over The Cap.

Effective Cap Space: $8,449,166

Simple Restructure: $67,070,657
Possible Cap Space: $75,519,823

Maximum Restructure: $110,459,052
Possible Cap Space: $118,908,218

According to @Jason_OTC, the #Chiefs could have $118,908,218 in cap space in 2023, with maximum restructures.

That would be the fourth-most cap space if every team maximized their restructures. #InVeachWeTrust pic.twitter.com/0ezsiCNhFc

— Jacob Milham (@JMilTheHam) November 3, 2022

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Hoover

The biggest problem for the Chiefs is the tackle position. Everything else is pretty straight forwards.

At WR, I think it's clear what's happening. They are going to let Hardman walk. You sign JuJu to a two or three year deal. That give you a WR corp of JuJu, MVS, Moore, and Toney for the next two seasons. Not only is that a lot of stability, but if Toney develops into a #1 WR, they you can take care of him when the time comes. For as bad as out WR room looked this offseason, Veach has done great work in stabilizing things at the position without breaking the bank.

EDGE - This is where the cap space has to be used IMO. While we need to continue to draft defensive playmakers, I don't think we will ever be in a position to really draft the player we need where we are drafting. The scary thing is that there isn't much out on the market to get excited about at the moment.

OT - I still think Brown is an option moving forward. Far from perfect, you just have to get him at the right price. RT is a position we need to just continue to throw mid-round draft picks at. At the bare minimum you are establishing some depth.

We're probably going to have to trade up if we want a DE in the draft. Otherwise, just throw numbers at it.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But with McDuffie, Watson and Williams making ass-wipe money, you can still pay Sneed and have a really cheap DB group.

And Sneed's just awfully difficult to replace. He's an integral part of our coverage schemes.

Exactly how I feel about Juju. Skyy and Toney are cheap for 3 years after this year.

Juju’s cap hit year 1 (2023) is low. In 2024 you can cut MVS and get $10 million back when Juju’s cap hits balloon.

But you can use a high pick to draft another WR as well.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

If you take out Tyreek’s low cap hit this year and his ballooned cap hit in the last year of his contract, you’ve got the meat of his contract with is 3 years.

2023-$31.2 million
2024-$24.8 million
2025-$28 million

That’s an average of $28 million for those 3 years. That’s basically a QB contract. As of right now Tyreek’s $28 million average would be the 11th highest QB contract in 2024.

With Mahomes contract that isn’t realistic. In that same timeframe Mahomes contract averages $45.7 million so you’re looking at almost $74 million for 2 players.

And yes I know Patrick has the contract set up for cap relief but Clark isn’t cutting checks for Patrick every year.

It wasn’t feasible or responsible

But you can't just 'take out the low 1st year' because he was due to make substantially more than that. They 'traded' a low hit this year for larger hits in the subsequent years.

It's 3/$72 or 4/$95. So between $23-$25 million/yr (more likely to be $23) depending on when they pull the chute.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Exactly how I feel about Juju. Skyy and Toney are cheap for 3 years after this year.

Juju’s cap hit year 1 (2023) is low. In 2024 you can cut MVS and get $10 million back when Juju’s cap hits balloon.

But you can use a high pick to draft another WR as well.

Yup, that's probably what you'd do.

I just feel like you could probably get JJSS on something like 4/80 w/ 3/$50 being the 'meat' of the deal.

Is that cheap? No, but as was previously mentioned, it's about 2/3 of what Hill costs. Is he 2/3 as valuable as Hill? In a vacuum I'd say he isn't; the marginal upgrade from 'pretty good' to 'HOF talent' is incredibly rare and incredibly valuable. But if he comes in here and performs at a high level, he's the devil you know at that point.

So take Hill out of the conversation and just say "Is it worth $16.5 million/yr to get 1,100 yards and 7 TDs?"

Eh...market says it probably is. Teams will pay more for less in the coming years. If JJSS continues to play at that level, I think you go ahead and give him that deal.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But you can't just 'take out the low 1st year' because he was due to make substantially more than that. They 'traded' a low hit this year for larger hits in the subsequent years.

It's 3/$72 or 4/$95. So between $23-$25 million/yr (more likely to be $23) depending on when they pull the chute.

Then folks shouldn’t be mad at Juju’s $24 million avg I speculated about.

Bc these contracts will be similar. If Tyreek’s averages $23 million (ish) then Juju’s will likely be around $16 million

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Then folks shouldn’t be mad at Juju’s $24 million avg I speculated about.

Bc these contracts will be similar. If Tyreek’s averages $23 million (ish) then Juju’s will likely be around $16 million

Again, I think it's a disconnect in communication.

Folks that are 'mad' at your speculation are viewing the deal in terms of practical guarantees - JJSS ain't gonna touch $24 million in practical guarantees. It may be akin to the $24 million in APY while Hill's APY is at $30 million.

Gotta be an apples to apples comparison in order to make any sense.

[O.city]

As a philosophy, if you didn't wanna pay Tyreek, I don't know how you turn around and then pay JJSS.

Just look for the next JJSS and keep drafting.

[suzzer99]

So what do we do if Jones won't sign an extension? Just pay him $27M then let him walk? Try to trade him now? Other?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

So what do we do if Jones won't sign an extension? Just pay him $27M then let him walk? Try to trade him now? Other?

Pay him what you have to and forget about it.

Dude is the best DT in the league now.

[DJ's left nut]

Interesting exercise:

Let's say that Hill's practical guarantees are worth about 75% of his APY (the math is easier; its nearer 77%).

And let's say that JJSS ends up with an APY of $24 million. 75% of that would be $18 million in practical guarantees at that point.

You interested at that rate? 3 years, $54 million? So figure a $20 million signing bonus, base salaries of 5, 13 and 16 to total $34 million in salary on top of the bonus. Cut him after year 3 with $5 million in dead money? Cap hits of $10, $18 and $21 million in the first 3 years? Probably have to injury guarantee at least half of that year 3 salary at worst; probably fully guarantee it at the start of the 2024 league year for 2025.

It would be a better deal than what Kirk got, IMO. Kirk would have slightly better numbers in the first 2 years but gives it back in year 3. But the Jags also payed a "we really suck" premium.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by O.city

As a philosophy, if you didn't wanna pay Tyreek, I don't know how you turn around and then pay JJSS.

Just look for the next JJSS and keep drafting.

Not a lot of guys like Juju out there and in his situation. He’s not easy to replace. You’re also starting over with a rookie WR again if you go that route and we all know how that goes.

Juju is a 1,500 yard, 8-10 TD caliber player and he’s only 25.

Money isn’t an issue either. They were gonna keep Tyreek at a fair price until his price point ballooned out of control due to Davante Adams.

I think we can get Juju for 2/3 of what Tyreek got

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by O.city

Pay him what you have to and forget about it.

Dude is the best DT in the league now.

Veech has already proved he won't overpay. He'll have a number with Jones and if Jones wants more, he'll figure something else out.

I guess you just let him play one more contract year, then maybe try to compete against the open market. Dude would be the biggest defensive free agent to hit the market in years. I can't even think of the last one this big.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Interesting exercise:

Let's say that Hill's practical guarantees are worth about 75% of his APY (the math is easier; its nearer 77%).

And let's say that JJSS ends up with an APY of $24 million. 75% of that would be $18 million in practical guarantees at that point.

You interested at that rate? 3 years, $54 million? So figure a $20 million signing bonus, base salaries of 5, 13 and 16 to total $34 million in salary on top of the bonus. Cut him after year 3 with $5 million in dead money? Cap hits of $10, $18 and $21 million in the first 3 years? Probably have to injury guarantee at least half of that year 3 salary at worst; probably fully guarantee it at the start of the 2024 league year for 2025.

It would be a better deal than what Kirk got, IMO. Kirk would have slightly better numbers in the first 2 years but gives it back in year 3. But the Jags also payed a "we really suck" premium.

I would do that in a heartbeat. Go into the draft and pick another WR in the first 3 rounds and roll into 2023 with:

Juju
MVS
Toney
Moore
Rookie

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

As a philosophy, if you didn't wanna pay Tyreek, I don't know how you turn around and then pay JJSS.

Just look for the next JJSS and keep drafting.

Philosophy is one thing - math is another altogether.

They were willing to pay Tyreek until the Adams trade/contract rat-****ed the market. JJSS at 75% of what Hill is getting may be in their price range at that point.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I also don't see how, unless you see a TON of improvement from Moore over the course of this season, you can possibly go into next year with a 1-2-3 of MVS - Moore - Toney. That's a pile of shit.

They're gonna pay for somebody. And sooner or later you can't go full GB and just keep cycling out Mahomes weapons. You need a throughput somewhere.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Some of you guys are overvaluing the worth of some of the players...

Bolton is probably a 13 mill per year average player, he does not have the freakish athletic traits and cover ability all the ones that got paid do.

Willie Gay is probably 8 mill per year average because he has freaky athletic traits but lacks the production.

Creed Humphrey, I do believe he will get paid top 3 center money.

Trey Smith, I don't see him breaking the bank either he'll make solid guard money but he isn't gonna get Thuney money.

The issue is JuJu and Hardman are hitting FA in a terrible WR FA year so they're value is gonna be pushed up.

I do believe JuJu could come very close to getting 20 mill per year if he's willing to go play for like the Bears. And no he's not a 1, he's a really really good complimentary piece.

There is absolutely no way that Bolton signs for less than $15 mil a year. I'd bet my dick on that. Hitchens got $9 mil/yr from us and by the time Bolton gets paid it'll be like 7 years since Hitchens got his contract. Bolton is worth substantially more and then with how contracts increase basically every year, that puts him at $15 mil/yr at the bare minimum. If we don't pay him that someone will.