Clearing up the 1 seed situation

[Why Not?]

Yes, this needs it's own thread due to the amount of people in other threads that clearly don't understand how this works. I've seen several people ask "If the Bills win tomorrow, does Andy rest his starters next week" and I've even seen someone post that if the Bills lose tomorrow, we can rest Thuney for the playoffs.

So, in plain and clear language, here is the deal:


There is no scenario in which the 1 seed can be clinched by anyone tomorrow. If the Bills win, they still need to beat NE unless we lose to the Raiders. If the Bills lose, we still need to beat the Raiders, unless the Bills lose to the Patriots. If Cinci wins out and we lose to the Raiders, they are the 1 seed.

Again and most importantly for this thread, there is no chance the Chiefs are not playing for a shot at the one seed next week. The Bills can win 764-2 and everyone with a pulse will play for the Chiefs next week.

That is all.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

If Buffalo wins tomorrow, how confident are you the Patriots have a snowball's chance in hell winning in Buffalo? If you think New England has little to no chance, sitting the staters should be entertained as an option. The Chiefs would be locked into the #2 seed. Of course anything is possible, the question is are you willing to risk injuries while relying on the inept Patriots to score points.

You seem to forget Fitzmagic. Anything can happen.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

If Buffalo wins tomorrow, how confident are you the Patriots have a snowball's chance in hell winning in Buffalo? If you think New England has little to no chance, sitting the staters should be entertained as an option. The Chiefs would be locked into the #2 seed. Of course anything is possible, the question is are you willing to risk injuries while relying on the inept Patriots to score points.

This is really dumb. You play your starters, no question.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

Okay now do it again since the Steelers won

Updated original post but putting here also:

Games that matter next week:

Chiefs at Raiders: KC get 1 seed (Bills loss + Chiefs win), 2 seed (no Bills loss + Chiefs win), or 3 seed (Bills win + Bengals win + Chiefs loss)

Ravens at Bengals: Bengals get 1 seed (win out + Chiefs loss), 2 seed (win out + no Chiefs loss), 3 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + win vs Ravens next week + Chiefs loss vs Raiders next week), or 5 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + loss to Ravens next week)

Patriots at Bills: Patriots get 7 seed (Patriots win vs Bills or Dolphins and Steelers loss)

Jets at Dolphins: Dolphins get 7 seed (Dolphins win vs Jets + Patriots loss)

Browns at Steelers: Steelers get 7 seed (Steelers win vs Browns + Patriots loss + Dolphins loss)

Vikings at Bears: Vikings get 2 seed (Vikings win vs Bears + 49ers loss) or 3 seed (Vikings loss or 49ers win)

Lions at Packers: Packers get 7 seed (Packers win vs Lions) or Lions get 7 seed (Lions win vs Packers + Seahawks loss)

Rams at Seahawks: Seahawks get 7 seed (Seahawks win vs Rams + Packers loss)

Cards at 49ers: 49ers get 1 seed (49ers win + Eagles loss), 2 seed (49ers win + Eagles win), 3 seed (49ers loss)

Giants at Eagles: Eagles get 1 seed (Eagles win or Eagles loss + 49ers loss + Cowboys loss), 2 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys loss), or 5 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys win)

Cowboys at Commanders: Cowboys get 1 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers loss + Eagles loss), 2 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers win + Eagles loss), or 5 seed (Cowboys loss or Cowboys win + Eagles win)

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Assuming the Ravens beat the Steelers E=MC2.

Uh, better start over.

The only real change is that the Browns at Steelers game now has significance to the Steelers (if the Patriots and Dolphins lose and the Steelers can win).

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.

Chances are the NFL will do what they do every year and have everyone with relevant games play at the same time, but I could be wrong!

On edit: Guess we're playing Saturday so..... nevermind.

[Coochie liquor]

Really like the extra day to prepare for playoffs, or bye week.

[Reroka]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Yes, this needs it's own thread due to the amount of people in other threads that clearly don't understand how this works. I've seen several people ask "If the Bills win tomorrow, does Andy rest his starters next week" and I've even seen someone post that if the Bills lose tomorrow, we can rest Thuney for the playoffs.

So, in plain and clear language, here is the deal:


There is no scenario in which the 1 seed can be clinched by anyone tomorrow. If the Bills win, they still need to beat NE unless we lose to the Raiders. If the Bills lose, we still need to beat the Raiders, unless the Bills lose to the Patriots. If Cinci wins out and we lose to the Raiders, they are the 1 seed.

Again and most importantly for this thread, there is no chance the Chiefs are not playing for a shot at the one seed next week. The Bills can win 764-2 and everyone with a pulse will play for the Chiefs next week.

That is all.

Not sure we will be resting anyone unless we get the bye.

[Direckshun]

I haven't done the math on this, but can somebody fact check me?

If the Bills win this game, the Chiefs are almost certainly locked into the 2 seed (as it's vey unlikely the Bills will lose to the Pats in Week 18), and they can rest their starters?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I haven't done the math on this, but can somebody fact check me?

If the Bills win this game, the Chiefs are almost certainly locked into the 2 seed (as it's vey unlikely the Bills will lose to the Pats in Week 18), and they can rest their starters?

How in the world have so many people forgotten about Fitzmagic and the Dolphins beating the Pats to give the Chiefs the bye during our Super Bowl run?

Yes, the likelihood that the Patriots will beat the Bills is low. No, the Chiefs will not rest starters if there is any chance at the 1 seed (and there is no scenario in which that chance will not exist). The end.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

How in the world have so many people forgotten about Fitzmagic and the Dolphins beating the Pats to give the Chiefs the bye during our Super Bowl run?

Yes, the likelihood that the Patriots will beat the Bills is low. No, the Chiefs will not rest starters if there is any chance at the 1 seed (and there is no scenario in which that chance will not exist). The end.

And how in the world has the same thing been addressed and discussed 50x in different threads yet it’s still being asked?

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

So if we stay the 2 seed, we are getting the Dolph, Pats or Stealers.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I haven't done the math on this, but can somebody fact check me?

If the Bills win this game, the Chiefs are almost certainly locked into the 2 seed (as it's vey unlikely the Bills will lose to the Pats in Week 18), and they can rest their starters?

Chiefs won’t rest starters for any reason because the Patriots have a chance to upset the Bills in Week 18

Patriots will be playing for the 7th seed and should use all starters available

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

So if we stay the 2 seed, we are getting the Dolph, Pats or Stealers.

Technically Ravens or Jags are possibilities as well. This site's algorithm is pretty simplistic, but I like it for getting a feel of the scenarios (scroll to the middle table). Based on that, the probabilities are:

50% - Bye
28% - Dolphins
9% - Steelers
6% - Ravens
5% - Patriots
2% - Jaguars

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Technically Ravens or Jags are possibilities as well. This site's algorithm is pretty simplistic, but I like it for getting a feel of the scenarios (scroll to the middle table). Based on that, the probabilities are:

50% - Bye
28% - Dolphins
9% - Steelers
6% - Ravens
5% - Patriots
2% - Jaguars

If we stay the 2 seed, the Jags would be the 4th as they would be division winners, Ravens worst is the 6th as they have 10 wins. I'm pretty sure its the Stealers, Minnows, Faketriots...

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Technically Ravens or Jags are possibilities as well. This site's algorithm is pretty simplistic, but I like it for getting a feel of the scenarios (scroll to the middle table). Based on that, the probabilities are:

50% - Bye
28% - Dolphins
9% - Steelers
6% - Ravens
5% - Patriots
2% - Jaguars

I think the Patriots just have to be higher given that if we lose to the Raiders after a Bills win tonight, the Bills have nothing at stake next week. I doubt they’ll sit their starters given that they’ll have a bye, but I can’t imagine they’ll be playing the playoff-hungry Patriots at anywhere near 100%.