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Old 01-01-2023, 08:08 PM  
Why Not? Why Not? is offline
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Clearing up the 1 seed situation
Yes, this needs it's own thread due to the amount of people in other threads that clearly don't understand how this works. I've seen several people ask "If the Bills win tomorrow, does Andy rest his starters next week" and I've even seen someone post that if the Bills lose tomorrow, we can rest Thuney for the playoffs.

So, in plain and clear language, here is the deal:


There is no scenario in which the 1 seed can be clinched by anyone tomorrow. If the Bills win, they still need to beat NE unless we lose to the Raiders. If the Bills lose, we still need to beat the Raiders, unless the Bills lose to the Patriots. If Cinci wins out and we lose to the Raiders, they are the 1 seed.

Again and most importantly for this thread, there is no chance the Chiefs are not playing for a shot at the one seed next week. The Bills can win 764-2 and everyone with a pulse will play for the Chiefs next week.

That is all.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:22 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
If the Bills win tomorrow and the Ravens win tonight the Patriots will probably beat the Bills since the Bengals will no longer have anything left to play for and the Chiefs will probably just rest starters since they’ll be locked in at the two seed.
Did you read the OP? Chiefs aren't locked in at the 2 seed if the Bills win tomorrow. Both the Bills and Chiefs will be going full out to win next week regardless of the outcome in Bills/Bengals.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:23 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Games that matter next week (assuming Ravens beat Steelers tonight):

Chiefs at Raiders: KC get 1 seed (Bills loss + Chiefs win), 2 seed (no Bills loss + Chiefs win), or 3 seed (Bills win + Bengals win + Chiefs loss)

Ravens at Bengals: Bengals get 1 seed (win out + Chiefs loss), 2 seed (win out + no Chiefs loss), 3 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + win vs Ravens next week + no Chiefs win vs Raiders next week), or 5 seed (loss to Bills tomorrow + loss to Ravens next week)

Patriots at Bills: Patriots get 7 seed (Patriots win vs Bills or Dolphins loss)

Jets at Dolphins: Dolphins get 7 seek (Dolphins win vs Jets + Patriots loss)

Vikings at Bears: Vikings get 2 seed (Vikings win vs Bears + 49ers loss) or 3 seed (Vikings loss or 49ers win)

Lions at Packers: Packers get 7 seed (Packers win vs Lions) or Lions get 7 seed (Lions win vs Packers + Seahawks loss)

Rams at Seahawks: Seahawks get 7 seed (Seahawks win vs Rams + Packers loss)

Cards at 49ers: 49ers get 1 seed (49ers win + Eagles loss), 2 seed (49ers win + Eagles win), 3 seed (49ers loss)

Giants at Eagles: Eagles get 1 seed (Eagles win or Eagles loss + 49ers loss + Cowboys loss), 2 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys loss), or 5 seed (Eagles loss + 49ers win + Cowboys win)

Cowboys at Commanders: Cowboys get 1 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers loss + Eagles loss), 2 seed (Cowboys win + 49ers win + Eagles loss), or 5 seed (Cowboys loss or Cowboys win + Eagles win)

Assuming the Ravens beat the Steelers E=MC2.

Uh, better start over.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:24 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Did you read the OP? Chiefs aren't locked in at the 2 seed if the Bills win tomorrow. Both the Bills and Chiefs will be going full out to win next week regardless of the outcome in Bills/Bengals.

Are you questioning my understanding of the scenarios? It’s pretty clearly laid out!
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:24 PM   #49
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Bengals win Bills could draw Ravens. Allen struggled against their D.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:30 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Are you questioning my understanding of the scenarios? It’s pretty clearly laid out!
There's no scenario in which the Pats will probably beat the Bills because there's no scenario where the Bills have nothing to play for. They want the 1 seed.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:32 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
There's no scenario in which the Pats will probably beat the Bills because there's no scenario where the Bills have nothing to play for. They want the 1 seed.
Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:32 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
There's no scenario in which the Pats will probably beat the Bills because there's no scenario where the Bills have nothing to play for. They want the 1 seed.

You are missing the point. The Pats will win because of the Bengals having nothing to play for. It’s a complex relationship but it’s there!
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:33 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.

They would still be playing for the two seed so they’d play.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:35 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
They would still be playing for the two seed so they’d play.
not if the bengals play first and win
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:36 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.
Not necessarily. In that scenario, if Buf wins week 18 and Cinci loses, Buf moves back to the 2 seed.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:37 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
not if the bengals play first and win

Well sure but can’t see them having those games at different times for just that reason.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:37 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by kevrunner View Post
Bills lose Monday - makes them 12-4, Bengals win - makes them 12 - 4

Next week both Bills and Bengals lose, their games have a 1PM starting time.

So both of those teams are 12 - 5 after their loss.

The Chiefs are 13 - 3, their game starts at 4PM or later. Chiefs can rest their players in this scenario.

All game times are still TBD as of now.
Nope KC moved to Sat
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:41 PM   #58
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With the Chiefs not able to play a noon game it must have been too difficult to have them play at 3 pm on Sunday and then move every other game affected by our outcome which basically seems like every AFC game since so many other scenarios depend on Bills and Bengals games.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:41 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
Now there is.

If the Bills lose to the Bengals and we beat the Raiders, the Bills have nothing to play for.
Now there is after that schedule release (which potentially really helps the Patriots and really hurts the Dolphins), yes. But not before that.
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:43 PM   #60
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Clearing up the 1 seed situation
The only way (assuming same game time as Bengals) the Bills can rest people is if they win tomorrow and we lose Saturday. This tells me the fix is in for the Bills to lose tomorrow.
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