#3 overall pick... a 20 year history - Page 4

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 05:27 PM

08 Matt Ryan
07 Joe Thomas
06 Vince Young
05 Braylon Edwards
04 Larry Fitzgerald
03 Andre Johnson
02 Joey Harrington
01 Gerard Warren
00 Chris Samuels
99 Akili Smith
98 Andre Wadsworth
97 Shawn Springs
96 Simeon Rice
95 Steve McNair
94 Heath Shuler
93 Garrison Hearst
92 Sean Gilbert
91 Bruce Pickens
90 Cortez Kennedy
89 Barry Sanders

Draw your own conclusions. As for myself, if this list is a good indicator, I would go DT, DE, OT or WR... unfortunately we don't have a need that pressing at OT and the DE, DT WR prospects are iffy that high...

I am not in the anti-QB at all cost crowd.. I just really am not sold on THESE two QBs... esp. Stafford...

**doomy3** · 02-08-2009, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Akili Smith was a bust.

Jim Druckenmiller was a bust.

Ryan Leaf was a bust.

Cade McNown was a bust.

Joey Harrington is still playing in the NFL and has won some games. He got completely screwed over in Detroit (who hasn't?).

I'm not going to say the guy is anything better than average but Sean Payton's got him on his roster so that definitely says a little bit about the guy.

The guy's got nearly 15,000 yards passing and a QB rating of 69.1 while playing on shitty ****ing teams (Detroit, Miami & Atlanta).

He was a number 3 pick in the draft, and has been a backup for over half of his career. That is the definition of bust. Ryan Sims is on an NFL roster, so clearly he is not a bust either.

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1

kyle went to/graduated from michigan. does his henne love really shock you?

Ha, true enough... BUT I am not a fan of EVERY ex U-M QB... just saw 4 solid years from Henne and felt he would be a good QB at the pro level... not a GREAT QB... a good solid starter.

Sam Hall · 02-08-2009, 08:27 PM

In other words, the No. 3 pick has either been boom or bust. I wouldn't be surprised if the other top 5 spots are the same way.

Ebolapox · 02-08-2009, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ha, true enough... BUT I am not a fan of EVERY ex U-M QB... just saw 4 solid years from Henne and felt he would be a good QB at the pro level... not a GREAT QB... a good solid starter.

at this point, I'm sick to ****ing death of 'good, solid starters.' for every year save 1.5 of my 20 year fandom, I've never seen the chiefs with a franchise QB. a guy who could take the team on his back. the 1.5 years I saw it, we went further into the playoffs than we had since the early 70's.

I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence.

anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out?

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1

at this point, I'm sick to ****ing death of 'good, solid starters.' for every year save 1.5 of my 20 year fandom, I've never seen the chiefs with a franchise QB. a guy who could take the team on his back. the 1.5 years I saw it, we went further into the playoffs than we had since the early 70's.

I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence.

anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out?

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

kstater · 02-08-2009, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

I see your point, but I think we're going to stop seeing the great QB prospects staying 4 years. There's so much money nowadays that it's not worth a QB to go back. I think the list of successful junior QB's is going to start to grow.

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kstater

I see your point, but I think we're going to stop seeing the great QB prospects staying 4 years. There's so much money nowadays that it's not worth a QB to go back. I think the list of successful junior QB's is going to start to grow.

I agree, just not sure I want to be on the bleeding edge of that trend. and honestly, I just don't like the two choices we have at this point. Maybe that will change but not right now...

Ebolapox · 02-08-2009, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

oh, it's absolutely not a coincidence that jr. qbs tend to bust more often than not. the issue with junior qbs is that they're often drafted by teams that suck and have to start from day one.

a while back, I did a bit of research of first round qbs relative to where they were drafted, and whether they played right off the bat or sat on the bench and learned the ropes. overwhelmingly, the guys who were eased into the lineup were those with the greatest success. you can look at almost every qb on your list, and they mostly played right off the bat.

my take is that, in a perfect world, you draft the senior qb that started 40 games, had a high completion percentage, and played in a pro style offense. this isn't a perfect world. we have stafford and sanchez, who have flashed the ability to be that franchise qb we've lacked, really, since len dawson. and unfortunately, that's what the draft is all about. picking young guys with talent and upside. luckily, we have one of the best guys in the nfl doing the picking for us now. if we draft a qb at number three overall, I have all the confidence in the world that pioli will put him in the position to succeed.

**DaneMcCloud** · 02-08-2009, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

No, I don't believe he will suck. But there are plenty of one year wonders that flame out.

Look no further than your Pro Bowl QB at the number 3 spot, Vince Young.

So, you think there's a 50/50 chance that Matt Ryan will have deep emotional and psychological problems?

**DaneMcCloud** · 02-08-2009, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

He was a number 3 pick in the draft, and has been a backup for over half of his career. That is the definition of bust. Ryan Sims is on an NFL roster, so clearly he is not a bust either.

No, it's not.

THE definition of a bust is Ryan Leaf

The definition of a bust is Akili Smith.

The definition of a bust is Cade McNown.

Do you think that Jim Plunkett was a "bust"? He was number one overall in pick in 1971, yet by 1978, he was a backup QB for the Raiders.

Of course all he did after that was win the Super Bowl in 1981 and 1983.

I'm not predicting future greatness for Joey Harrington but stranger things have happened.

**cdcox** · 02-08-2009, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Well I think Ryan was significantly better than Flacco this past season...

Not even a question about this.

Do people ever look beyond W-L and stats? I'm as big a stat guy as anyone on the board, but I at least try to evaluate a player on what they do on the field.

I called Chad Pennington "not suitable" after the 2002 season, because I didn't like his weak arm. He had great numbers that year and a playoff win. However, I wrote him off as a championship caliber QB because he could not throw all the passes. You get a good defense in the playoffs and Chad isn't going to deliver. I stick by that assessment to this day.

Mecca · 02-08-2009, 10:56 PM

My opinion of QB's right now is that just being from a pro style offense puts them ahead of where most QB's are, the college spread fixation is hurting the QB transitions to the next level..

And Sanchez isn't a true junior by the way.

**cdcox** · 02-08-2009, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

No, I don't believe he will suck. But there are plenty of one year wonders that flame out.

Look no further than your Pro Bowl QB at the number 3 spot, Vince Young.

Vince Young had a 51.5% completion rate in is Pro Bowl year. He made the Pro Bowl due to some crazy comebacks. But a 51.5% completion rate is not a sustainable way to win the NFL. Doesn't take a genius to see that. He was actually better in 2007. Then he went batshit crazy in 2008. If he can get his head together (extremely doubtful) he still has a chance.

Matt Ryan's rookie non-Pro-Bowl year shows much, much more promise than VY's pro-bowl year. Matt Ryan's way of winning is based on strong fundamental play. VY's winning in 2006, was based on miracle comebacks that are non-sustainable without strong fundamentals.

Mecca · 02-08-2009, 11:01 PM

It's nice to see Vince Young prove to be what I thought he was...I never thought he could legit play QB in the NFL at an even average level.

**DaneMcCloud** · 02-08-2009, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

It's nice to see Vince Young prove to be what I thought he was...I never thought he could legit play QB in the NFL at an even average level.

But it didn't happen the way you thought it would (me, either).

The guy has serious emotional and psychological issues that have nothing to due with football.

And, his career is far from over. If history teaches us anything, it's that quarterbacks can comeback and play well at nearly anytime before 40.

02-08-2009, 05:27 PM
AustinChief Administrator Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Austin Casino cash: $-754998	#3 overall pick... a 20 year history 08 Matt Ryan 07 Joe Thomas 06 Vince Young 05 Braylon Edwards 04 Larry Fitzgerald 03 Andre Johnson 02 Joey Harrington 01 Gerard Warren 00 Chris Samuels 99 Akili Smith 98 Andre Wadsworth 97 Shawn Springs 96 Simeon Rice 95 Steve McNair 94 Heath Shuler 93 Garrison Hearst 92 Sean Gilbert 91 Bruce Pickens 90 Cortez Kennedy 89 Barry Sanders Draw your own conclusions. As for myself, if this list is a good indicator, I would go DT, DE, OT or WR... unfortunately we don't have a need that pressing at OT and the DE, DT WR prospects are iffy that high... I am not in the anti-QB at all cost crowd.. I just really am not sold on THESE two QBs... esp. Stafford...
Posts: 20,021

02-08-2009, 08:27 PM	#48
Sam Hall UNSTOPPABLE Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: KC area Casino cash: $9895185	In other words, the No. 3 pick has either been boom or bust. I wouldn't be surprised if the other top 5 spots are the same way. __________________
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02-08-2009, 10:56 PM	#57
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-722950	My opinion of QB's right now is that just being from a pro style offense puts them ahead of where most QB's are, the college spread fixation is hurting the QB transitions to the next level.. And Sanchez isn't a true junior by the way.
Posts: 115,380

02-08-2009, 11:01 PM	#59
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-722950	It's nice to see Vince Young prove to be what I thought he was...I never thought he could legit play QB in the NFL at an even average level.
Posts: 115,380