#3 overall pick... a 20 year history

Ebolapox · 02-08-2009, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

If you liked Chad Henne more than these 2 guys I'm going to honestly ask you what the hell you were looking at.

kyle went to/graduated from michigan. does his henne love really shock you?

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1

kyle went to/graduated from michigan. does his henne love really shock you?

Ha, true enough... BUT I am not a fan of EVERY ex U-M QB... just saw 4 solid years from Henne and felt he would be a good QB at the pro level... not a GREAT QB... a good solid starter.

Ebolapox · 02-08-2009, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Ha, true enough... BUT I am not a fan of EVERY ex U-M QB... just saw 4 solid years from Henne and felt he would be a good QB at the pro level... not a GREAT QB... a good solid starter.

at this point, I'm sick to ****ing death of 'good, solid starters.' for every year save 1.5 of my 20 year fandom, I've never seen the chiefs with a franchise QB. a guy who could take the team on his back. the 1.5 years I saw it, we went further into the playoffs than we had since the early 70's.

I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence.

anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out?

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1

at this point, I'm sick to ****ing death of 'good, solid starters.' for every year save 1.5 of my 20 year fandom, I've never seen the chiefs with a franchise QB. a guy who could take the team on his back. the 1.5 years I saw it, we went further into the playoffs than we had since the early 70's.

I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence.

anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out?

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

kstater · 02-08-2009, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

I see your point, but I think we're going to stop seeing the great QB prospects staying 4 years. There's so much money nowadays that it's not worth a QB to go back. I think the list of successful junior QB's is going to start to grow.

**AustinChief** · 02-08-2009, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kstater

I see your point, but I think we're going to stop seeing the great QB prospects staying 4 years. There's so much money nowadays that it's not worth a QB to go back. I think the list of successful junior QB's is going to start to grow.

I agree, just not sure I want to be on the bleeding edge of that trend. and honestly, I just don't like the two choices we have at this point. Maybe that will change but not right now...

Ebolapox · 02-08-2009, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..

I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?

With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

oh, it's absolutely not a coincidence that jr. qbs tend to bust more often than not. the issue with junior qbs is that they're often drafted by teams that suck and have to start from day one.

a while back, I did a bit of research of first round qbs relative to where they were drafted, and whether they played right off the bat or sat on the bench and learned the ropes. overwhelmingly, the guys who were eased into the lineup were those with the greatest success. you can look at almost every qb on your list, and they mostly played right off the bat.

my take is that, in a perfect world, you draft the senior qb that started 40 games, had a high completion percentage, and played in a pro style offense. this isn't a perfect world. we have stafford and sanchez, who have flashed the ability to be that franchise qb we've lacked, really, since len dawson. and unfortunately, that's what the draft is all about. picking young guys with talent and upside. luckily, we have one of the best guys in the nfl doing the picking for us now. if we draft a qb at number three overall, I have all the confidence in the world that pioli will put him in the position to succeed.

ChiefsCountry · 02-09-2009, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...

Leaf - spread
Couch - spread/Mike Leach
Smith - spread
Grossman - Spurrier's Fun N Gun
Ware - Run N Shoot
Young - Spread
Vick - Option

**AustinChief** · 02-09-2009, 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Leaf - spread
Couch - spread/Mike Leach
Smith - spread
Grossman - Spurrier's Fun N Gun
Ware - Run N Shoot
Young - Spread
Vick - Option

and your point is?

ok, half of my not even close to complete list were "gimmick" college players... I can add another 4 or 5 that weren't.... the argument is... what JUNIORS have succeeded in the NFL... maybe I am wrong and it is now TIME for JUNIORS to succeed... but HISTORY shows otherwise so far...

ANYONE have a valid statistical argument to contradict me?

Mecca · 02-09-2009, 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

and your point is?

ok, half of my not even close to complete list were "gimmick" college players... I can add another 4 or 5 that weren't.... the argument is... what JUNIORS have succeeded in the NFL... maybe I am wrong and it is now TIME for JUNIORS to succeed... but HISTORY shows otherwise so far...

ANYONE have a valid statistical argument to contradict me?

Well Ben Roethlisberger was an underclassman...

I can throw up alot of arguments about why it's felt to be important. Most guys who declared early were big stat, system guys who wanted to get paid..Akili Smith comes to mind a guy who failed as a baseball player then returned to college to play football had his 1 good season and bolted.

Most of the time people don't like to take underclassmen because they haven't been well coached and they are unrefined so they'll need more work. The fact is with a guy like Sanchez he's been well coached he isn't going to learn anything else in college...

There are a huge list of seniors that have failed aswell, hell when you get out of the 1st round you're talking about basically a 5% chance of finding a franchise QB yet people always seem to want to do that.

It's about finding a guy who has the natural physical talent, the makeup and intangibles to lead your team and your franchise a guy with the desire to live and breathe nothing but the game so much so watching film is something he wants and loves to do not something he considers work.

I think Sanchez has the makeup to be a successful QB and he has supreme physical talent, and he's been very well coached in a pro style offense he properly drops, takes snaps and sets up and throws properly.

He's had responsibility for plays at SC you don't see him looking to the sideline for audibles.

I think the experience thing would mean something if you could show me something he doesn't do well because he needs more experience but that isn't the case with this guy.

I'm going to borrow a post I saw on another forum because it sums up the underclassmen QB thing pretty well...

Quote:

Simple minded people don't understand rules like 'junior QB's never pan out' are nonsense. Just because junior QB's in the past have had a poor track record does not mean some cosmic force will prevent future one's from having good careers. A BS rule about junior QB's mean as much as the old rule "rookie QB's never play well".

**Manila-Chief** · 02-08-2009, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

but either way, they bear the curse of the junior QB... hard to overcome.

Again, if Sanchez stayed in school and had another great year and we sucked enough to be able to draft him I would have been elated... as it is, not so much.

If he does have the talent, intelligence, mental make up, desire, etc. ... to be a QBOTF, it seems to me being a junior will not matter. The staying in school another year will only help the talent evaluator. It seems to me that if he has the tools he can develop.

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

Honestly, who cares?

Bill Parcells obviously liked Henne and Newsome liked Flacco. Those are two of the best in the business, so I will trust their judgment over yours.

How do we know that Parcells didn't like Flacco? Did he have a chance to draft him? IIRC Flacco went in the 1st. round and Henne in the 2nd.???? It's true Newsome had a chance to draft either.

Quote:

Originally Posted by H5N1

at this point, I'm sick to ****ing death of 'good, solid starters.' for every year save 1.5 of my 20 year fandom, I've never seen the chiefs with a franchise QB. a guy who could take the team on his back. the 1.5 years I saw it, we went further into the playoffs than we had since the early 70's.

I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence.

anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out?

After reading the article about DeBurg teaching QB's, I think the real question should be if the newly drafted QB's get the coaching/teaching that will help them be a success.

I agree, if Pioli thinks the QB that falls to us is worthy of our pick, I'm more than willing to support him drafting the QB. Why, a top quality QB makes it easier for a team to win and can lead us for the next dozen years. Usually, top draft picks have more talent, which helps him be successful.

**doomy3** · 02-08-2009, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manila-Chief

If he does have the talent, intelligence, mental make up, desire, etc. ... to be a QBOTF, it seems to me being a junior will not matter. The staying in school another year will only help the talent evaluator. It seems to me that if he has the tools he can develop.

How do we know that Parcells didn't like Flacco? Did he have a chance to draft him? IIRC Flacco went in the 1st. round and Henne in the 2nd.???? It's true Newsome had a chance to draft either.

After reading the article about DeBurg teaching QB's, I think the real question should be if the newly drafted QB's get the coaching/teaching that will help them be a success.

I agree, if Pioli thinks the QB that falls to us is worthy of our pick, I'm more than willing to support him drafting the QB. Why, a top quality QB makes it easier for a team to win and can lead us for the next dozen years. Usually, top draft picks have more talent, which helps him be successful.

Maybe you missed the whole conversation that post was in reference to...

I didn't say anything about Parcells not liking Flacco. I was just pointing out that two of the brightest minds in football liked those 2 QBs who Mecca didn't, and that I would probably trust their judgement over his.

**Manila-Chief** · 02-09-2009, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doomy3

Maybe you missed the whole conversation that post was in reference to...

I didn't say anything about Parcells not liking Flacco. I was just pointing out that two of the brightest minds in football liked those 2 QBs who Mecca didn't, and that I would probably trust their judgement over his.

Okay! That's a better explanation!!! And, I agree.