Football Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team - Page 3

Fumblerooski · 10-04-2010, 08:48 AM

I realize generally it takes more than week 4 to determine the final unbeaten in the NFL. But sitting at work and wondering who the last NFL team that was the final unbeaten failed to make the playoffs was and when. Can't look it up myself as the IS department here are supreme bandwidth Nazi's. But if anyone has time, and wouldn't mind checking, rep to you when I get home.

orange · 10-04-2010, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

So, there you go. 42 data points, and 2 missed the playoffs (under today's format), once in 1993, and perhaps once in 1970 if you consider Denver to be one of the last undefeated teams. That is roughly 1 in 20 teams. Will the Chiefs be the 3rd undefeated team to miss the playoffs in 2010?

Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.

**alnorth** · 10-04-2010, 05:54 PM

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

**alnorth** · 10-04-2010, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orange

Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.

That is your definition, and it is a fair one. However, it is not the popular definition; you are in the minority on this. You are using the word "last" in the sense of someone finishing last (or first) in the standings, everyone else is using "last" in the sense of time. The Chiefs are the last unbeaten team in the media, so that's what I went with.

**007** · 10-04-2010, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

1970 #1 - Lions 3-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
1970 #2 - Rams 3-0 - Missed Playoffs, but would have been the #5 seed in today's format (finished 9-4-1)
1970 #3 - Broncos 3-0 - Missed playoffs (finished 5-8-1)

This is what ESPN was referring too.

**Rain Man** · 10-04-2010, 06:24 PM

Okay, everyone, let's give it up for alnorth. How about a round of applause for this guy and all of his hard work in this thread!

**DaFace** · 10-04-2010, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru

Did everyone forget last years Broncos or something?

While a valid thing to consider, it's not the question being asked in the thread.

**BossChief** · 10-05-2010, 05:43 PM

Mike Shannahans Broncos won the first 6 games...McFistpumps team closed out the year.

**bevischief** · 10-05-2010, 05:53 PM

**alnorth** · 01-15-2011, 01:19 AM

updated

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=43):
3 - 9.3%
4 - 9.3%
5 - 14.0%
6 - 18.6%
7 - 11.6%
8 - 2.3%
9 - 9.3%
10 - 9.3%
11 - 4.7%
12 - 2.3%
13 - 2.3%
14 - 4.7%
16 - 2.3%
average - 7.35
median - 6

Conference champ (yes) (n=43): 74.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (yes) (n=22): 54.5%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=42):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.7%
Lost in Wild Card round - 11.9%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 21.4%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 9.5%
Lost in Wild Card round - 19.0%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 9.5%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

WebGem · 01-15-2011, 01:34 AM

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

**alnorth** · 01-15-2011, 01:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

I didn't arbitrarily make up the rules to benefit my favorite football team, apparently the convention is chronological. In the event of a situation where you'd think there should be a tie (noon vs 3pm or monday night, not bye vs a bye) tie goes to whoever plays later. I didn't make up the rules, whoever did, it just helped the chiefs this time, so the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club was, officially, in the record books, the last undefeated NFL team in the year 2010, for all the good that did us!

Pasta Little Brioni · 01-15-2011, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.

-King- · 01-15-2011, 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PGM

What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.

This.
Posted via Mobile Device

10-04-2010, 08:48 AM
Fumblerooski Bolly 'wood' Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Gardner,KS Casino cash: $10004900	Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team I realize generally it takes more than week 4 to determine the final unbeaten in the NFL. But sitting at work and wondering who the last NFL team that was the final unbeaten failed to make the playoffs was and when. Can't look it up myself as the IS department here are supreme bandwidth Nazi's. But if anyone has time, and wouldn't mind checking, rep to you when I get home.
Posts: 630

10-04-2010, 05:54 PM	#32
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57156239	Statistics! Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round. Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat. Teams most often last undefeated (n=43): 4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings 3 - Broncos, Cowboys 2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins 1 - 13 other teams Wins before first loss (n=42): 3 - 7.1% 4 - 9.5% 5 - 14.3% 6 - 19.0% 7 - 11.9% 8 - 2.4% 9 - 9.5% 10 - 9.5% 11 - 4.8% 12 - 2.4% 13 - 2.4% 14 - 4.8% 16 - 2.4% average - 7.45 median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins) Conference champ (n=42): 73.8% Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4% Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2% Performance (n=41): Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9% Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8% Lost in Divisional round - 24.4% Lost Conference championship - 14.6% Lost Super Bowl - 24.4% Won Super Bowl - 22.0% Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20): Miss playoffs in current format - 10% Lost in Wild Card round - 15% Lost in Divisional round - 25% Lost Conference championship - 15% Lost Super Bowl - 25% Won Super Bowl - 10% Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): Miss playoffs in current format - 0% Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8% Lost in Divisional round - 23.8% Lost Conference championship - 14.3% Lost Super Bowl - 23.8% Won Super Bowl - 1/3 __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry Last edited by alnorth; 10-04-2010 at 06:00 PM..
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10-04-2010, 06:24 PM	#35
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-642449 VARSITY	Okay, everyone, let's give it up for alnorth. How about a round of applause for this guy and all of his hard work in this thread! __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,444

10-05-2010, 05:43 PM	#37
BossChief SuperBowl or bust Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: BF Iowa Casino cash: $-1715912	Mike Shannahans Broncos won the first 6 games...McFistpumps team closed out the year. __________________ Dreams do come true... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=1407
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10-05-2010, 05:53 PM	#38
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $7739352 VARSITY
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01-15-2011, 01:34 AM	#40
WebGem MVP Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: NYC/Toronto/Mexico Casino cash: $9994900	I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category. __________________ Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bmifsud
Posts: 7,009