What matters most when drafting a WR?

[kccrow]

When it comes to the top 40 WRs in yardage in the NFL for 2013, you'll notice some striking statistics.

Statistic 1: Size Matters
Of the top 10 WRs in Yardage (and TDs scored), 7 are at least 6'3" and 8 are 6'0" or more. Of the top 40 WRs, 35% are 6'3" or taller. A staggering 75% are 6'0" or taller.

Here is the breakdown:

Ht	Ht#	Ht%	Ht+%
6'3" +	14	35%
6'2"	4	10%	45%
6'1"	5	13%	58%
6'0"	7	18%	75%
5'11"	1	3%	78%
5'10"	6	15%	93%
5'9"	3	8%	100%

Statistic 2: Timed Running Events Don't Matter As Much As You Think

The only real logical conclusion is that if you don't hit NFL target measures, you probably won't find yourself in the top 40 WRs in the NFL. Here's a bit of a look at the NFL's top 4 running measurements.

Exhibit A: 40-Yard Dash

I shouldn't say it doesn't matter, but what doesn't matter to NFL folks is whether or not you run a 4.35 or a 4.55. Just don't run above a 4.55 or your chances go down (there are some caveats).

If you scan the top 40, you'll notice 40 times vary wildly. If you want to draw any conclusion, most NFL top WRs run at least a 4.55. Very few of the NFL's top WRs run in the 4.4s, let alone the 4.3's. Fixating on speed is bad practice, they aren't running track.

If you've ever seen the NFL's targets, you'll see that 4.55 is actually the speed the NFL looks for a WR to possess, and the data backs it up.

Exhibit B: 10-Yard Split

You'll notice that, as a group, most WRs in the top 40 runs somewhere between a 1.55 and 1.60 10-yards split. There isn't much variation between a 4.4 guy and a 4.5 guy in this stat. Coincidentally, the NFL target is 1.60 seconds. Much like the 40-yard dash, so long as you aren't too far away from target, you're good to go.

Exhibit C: 3-Cone

This is probably getting old by now, but once again the top 40 NFL WRs pretty well follow the target of 7.00 seconds in the 3-cone. Don't run that fast? Well, your chances shrink considerably at being a #1 or even a #2 in the NFL.

Exhibit D: 20-Yard Shuttle

The shuttle might just be the most forgiving statistic aside from the 40 yard dash in all the timed events. The NFL looks for a 4.15 in the "short" shuttle. As you can see by the data, most NFL receivers in the top 40 run somewhere in the range of 4.00 to 4.30 and without too much statistical analysis it appears they trend towards the higher half of that range.

Statistic 3: Well, its not really a statistic at all. Here is what I'll say about NFL WRs towards the top. They all tend to run rather precise routes, they all can run the entirety of the route tree, and they all tend to be hands catchers.

So there you have it, bigger is usually better, benchmark speeds are all you need, guys need to run good routes, and you need a guy that catches with his hands.

When I see a guy like Matthews, I grin ear to ear, because he fits every criteria to be very good. In fact, I loved Keenan Allen last year and I see them as VERY similar players.