What matters most when drafting a WR?

[kccrow]

When it comes to the top 40 WRs in yardage in the NFL for 2013, you'll notice some striking statistics.

Statistic 1: Size Matters
Of the top 10 WRs in Yardage (and TDs scored), 7 are at least 6'3" and 8 are 6'0" or more. Of the top 40 WRs, 35% are 6'3" or taller. A staggering 75% are 6'0" or taller.

Here is the breakdown:

Ht	Ht#	Ht%	Ht+%
6'3" +	14	35%
6'2"	4	10%	45%
6'1"	5	13%	58%
6'0"	7	18%	75%
5'11"	1	3%	78%
5'10"	6	15%	93%
5'9"	3	8%	100%

Statistic 2: Timed Running Events Don't Matter As Much As You Think

The only real logical conclusion is that if you don't hit NFL target measures, you probably won't find yourself in the top 40 WRs in the NFL. Here's a bit of a look at the NFL's top 4 running measurements.

Exhibit A: 40-Yard Dash

I shouldn't say it doesn't matter, but what doesn't matter to NFL folks is whether or not you run a 4.35 or a 4.55. Just don't run above a 4.55 or your chances go down (there are some caveats).

If you scan the top 40, you'll notice 40 times vary wildly. If you want to draw any conclusion, most NFL top WRs run at least a 4.55. Very few of the NFL's top WRs run in the 4.4s, let alone the 4.3's. Fixating on speed is bad practice, they aren't running track.

If you've ever seen the NFL's targets, you'll see that 4.55 is actually the speed the NFL looks for a WR to possess, and the data backs it up.

Exhibit B: 10-Yard Split

You'll notice that, as a group, most WRs in the top 40 runs somewhere between a 1.55 and 1.60 10-yards split. There isn't much variation between a 4.4 guy and a 4.5 guy in this stat. Coincidentally, the NFL target is 1.60 seconds. Much like the 40-yard dash, so long as you aren't too far away from target, you're good to go.

Exhibit C: 3-Cone

This is probably getting old by now, but once again the top 40 NFL WRs pretty well follow the target of 7.00 seconds in the 3-cone. Don't run that fast? Well, your chances shrink considerably at being a #1 or even a #2 in the NFL.

Exhibit D: 20-Yard Shuttle

The shuttle might just be the most forgiving statistic aside from the 40 yard dash in all the timed events. The NFL looks for a 4.15 in the "short" shuttle. As you can see by the data, most NFL receivers in the top 40 run somewhere in the range of 4.00 to 4.30 and without too much statistical analysis it appears they trend towards the higher half of that range.

Statistic 3: Well, its not really a statistic at all. Here is what I'll say about NFL WRs towards the top. They all tend to run rather precise routes, they all can run the entirety of the route tree, and they all tend to be hands catchers.

So there you have it, bigger is usually better, benchmark speeds are all you need, guys need to run good routes, and you need a guy that catches with his hands.

When I see a guy like Matthews, I grin ear to ear, because he fits every criteria to be very good. In fact, I loved Keenan Allen last year and I see them as VERY similar players.

[Jakemall]

I really like Mathews. More than anything because of his drive. You can't measure drive in a 40. That is what made Jerry Rice the goat. There were always more talented WRs out there.

But if you're into metrics, you might get a kick out of this:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...metric-allstar

[Dante84]

This is a good start... but I want to scan the top 40 WR's to look for more patterns. It would be cool to have a full profile of your target WR. Are there any key metrics, aside from height, that indicate a high likelihood of success?

Are there certain metrics, when paired with other metrics that indicate a high likelihood of success? (X Vert + Y Height +Z Hand size = Top 10 WR?)

Hand Length?
Wingspan?
Vertical?
Wonderlic Score?
Drop % in College?

[BossChief]

Nice to see you around here, crow.

Really good stuff.

[T-post Tom]

Nice post, kccrow.

Touchdown Jesus: My not-so-bold prediction on what the Chiefs are going to do.

1. Sign Golden Tate as their #2 WR.
2. Keep Jenkins.
3. Drop Avery.
4. Draft a WR in the later rounds.
5. Draft board will look like this when the 23rd pick comes up. (Assuming many, many things. Including that they don't trade down/up; or land a top flight FS in FA.)

----- a. Calvin Pryor
----- b. Kona Ealy
----- c. Louis Nix
----- d. Ryan Shazier

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

Nice post, kccrow.

Touchdown Jesus: My not-so-bold prediction on what the Chiefs are going to do.

1. Sign Golden Tate as their #2 WR.
2. Keep Jenkins.
3. Drop Avery.
4. Draft a WR in the later rounds.
5. Draft board will look like this when the 23rd pick comes up. (Assuming many, many things. Including that they don't trade down/up; or land a top flight FS in FA.)

----- a. Calvin Pryor
----- b. Kona Ealy
----- c. Louis Nix
----- d. Ryan Shazier

I'll puke if we draft a NT or 3-4 DE in the 1st. But yeah, I really like Matthews as well, I think he might sneak into the first but will definitely be gone at the top to middle of the 2nd. He has the drive and work ethic to become great, just needs a bit of NFL coaching to really put everything together on the field on a more consistent basis. I also really like him because he can play any WR position on the field and would do great starting in the slot and eventually work his way to the outside.

[Direckshun]

I'd say the #1 thing is route-running.

Speed and size can help with you with that, but the chess match of route-running is really what gets a WR open.

[Mugsy]

For me it has to be hands. Everything else is great but if you can't catch you can't "receive."

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

I'll puke if we draft a NT or 3-4 DE in the 1st. But yeah, I really like Matthews as well, I think he might sneak into the first but will definitely be gone at the top to middle of the 2nd. He has the drive and work ethic to become great, just needs a bit of NFL coaching to really put everything together on the field on a more consistent basis. I also really like him because he can play any WR position on the field and would do great starting in the slot and eventually work his way to the outside.

Wouldn't be my first choice either, but Reid seems to like the big boys in the first round.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Mugsy

For me it has to be hands. Everything else is great but if you can't catch you can't "receive."

Avery has terrible hands but can run routes.

Baldwin has amazing hands but can't run routes.

Which one would you rather have.

[ToxSocks]

I want a receiver that can get separation, whether that's with speed or size. Big receivers aren't worth dick if they can't get away from the DB (See Baldwin, Jon) and small, quick receivers aren't worth dick i they can't run a route or run themselves out of the soft spot in the zone.

Quickness in and out of cuts and body control seem to be the biggest indicators to me.

[Jakemall]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

I want a receiver that can get separation, whether that's with speed or size. Big receivers aren't worth dick if they can't get away from the DB (See Baldwin, Jon) and small, quick receivers aren't worth dick i they can't run a route or run themselves out of the soft spot in the zone.

Quickness in and out of cuts and body control seem to be the biggest indicators to me.

This team should be targeting both types of WRs.

[Mugsy]

I read a lot of training camp reports about Baldwin struggling with drops AND seperation. He also had seven drops in games. It wasn't just the route running. It was also the hands. Most of all it was his poor release. I don't think you can really coach release. We just need a guy who can move the chains. A possession receiver if you will. We rreally haven't had that since Gonzalez left town. After the last few years I value hands above all else. I am tired of the drops.

[planetdoc]

"A db is just a receiver that cant catch"

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mugsy

I read a lot of training camp reports about Baldwin struggling with drops AND seperation. He also had seven drops in games. It wasn't just the route running. It was also the hands. We just need a guy who can move the chains. A possession receiver if you will. We rreally haven't had that since Gonzalez left town. After the last few years I value hands above all else. I am tired of the drops.

Jace Amaro. Problem solved.