Hey programmer types

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

1) What are you using as your "consensus" core big board? NFL Mock Draft Database runs a good one that is an aggregated table based on all the pro mocks in their database. That one is slow to update, though, as rapid changes in someone's status due to a great combine or pro day or (or the reverese, or an injury, or an off-field event) still take some time to "catch up." For example, of the mock sites I use, this is the one where I'm least likely to be able to nab Ojabo. Because he's fallen from the top 10 to the teens over the past 10-14 days, but all those mocks with EARLY projections are still in the database.

Yeah, that would be an issue. I would a lot of the machine logic stuff that exists in present mock-draft websites would be paramount. Then you could try to create a running average of 3 or 4 different 'trusted' sites, but you'd need their source data and I doubt they'd be open with all of it.

But someplace like The Draft Network has a handful of 'big boards' and while they don't update them constantly, an individual could. I just don't no enough about the mechanics of how these things actually function to know if it's as simple as moving guys up and down a spreadsheet.

2. How do you weigh team needs vs. positional value?

Again - same machine logic as a mock draft. That's why rather than just run a big board, I said you'd want to sim 100 drafts or something to get your results.

Because many of these websites do account for need. Or allow YOU to select if you want to account for need in how the draft is simulated.

How do you account for the "depth" of the draft? i.e. in a year like 2013 it would be easier to move around in the draft because that one was a big ol' pile or crap. But in a deep draft like this, it may be harder/teams may be more likely to stick exactly to pick value in trades.

Same answer as above - need some level of AI in there. It would also address the 'randomness' element discussed after you. If there are enough simulations done with a good enough AI to know if/when/how a trade would be appropriate or accepted, you can get large numbers to mostly iron out in the probabilities.

That's ultimately why I said it would take some programming understanding WELL beyond my comprehension. You'd need the simulations that create your draft odds to be somewhat reliable. In the end I think the 'big board' problem is the easiest to get past. It's the creation of the actual simulator that would make the headaches.