Haley gambled to win

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I have no problem with either decision. None.

However, perhaps Haley has underestimated his own team a bit because we ultimately didn't have to do anything unconventional or ultra-aggressive to win yesterday.

One thing I would point out is that the "unconventional 4th down call" is actually statistically the right move. It has a higher value of expected points. (Caveat -- I haven't checked this particular down-distance-field position scenario).

Sometimes the conservative move is just plain wrong. If you are saving money for retirement, putting all of your money in a savings account at the age of 20 is just a plain wrong move, even though it looks "conservative". Similarly if you automatically take the 3 points in that situation, when the expected value of going for it on fourth down is higher (say 4 points), then it is actually a decision that has a negative impact on winning, even though it is "conservative".