***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Buh bye.

Bravo sir, bravo

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

DaFace, is there data out there that shows that it was peaking in some areas before the lockdown?

In the U.S.? I don't THINK so (and I don't know enough about what most other countries have been doing to really know). It's hard, though, because everyone locked down at roughly the same time, and most places seem to have been peaking in that April-ish time frame. It's tough to really make anything of that.

It's part of the reason why I'm glad in a weird way that some areas are opening up a bit while others aren't. It's hard to know if what you're doing is working when you have nothing to compare it to. By trying different things, we'll at least get SOME feel for what works and what doesn't.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Maybe but once it gets in your state and you lock down you need to stay that way for 8-10 weeks minimum. For us Missourians he didn't lock down to April 6 so we really need to be continued lock down until July

Maybe.

I think the elephant in the room here is that while we flattened the curve, essentially you've set this up as a slow burn for a longer period of time. Which...is essentially what flattening the curve is. Just hope the hospitals don't over whelm and people take precautions.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In the U.S.? I don't THINK so (and I don't know enough about what most other countries have been doing to really know). It's hard, though, because everyone locked down at roughly the same time, and most places seem to have been peaking in that April-ish time frame. It's tough to really make anything of that.

It's part of the reason why I'm glad in a weird way that some areas are opening up a bit while others aren't. It's hard to know if what you're doing is working when you have nothing to compare it to. By trying different things, we'll at least get SOME feel for what works and what doesn't.

Pretty much what I thought.

I've been keeping up with as much info as i can on it and there's some thought out there that that the peak happened before the lockdowns even started. I'm not sure thats the case though.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Couple of explanations:

America is one of the most visited countries in the World. The top countries in this category have all been hit, all worse per capita than the US...

https://www.google.com/search?q=most...hrome&ie=UTF-8

NYC/NJ - Kept their subway system open and didn't start disinfecting it nightly until 4 days ago. Count all at home deaths as Covid-19 and issued do not resuscitate orders to their field medical personnel. If you take out NYC/NJ America kicked ass controlling this virus, specifically if you compare it to the EU countries...

If you get a. Unexpected growth in deaths compared to the previous years during a similar timeframe and the only new factor is a pandemic , considering other deaths should probably be down because people are staying home ,( car accidents didn’t cause home death) I think it makes sense to assume covid played a part in there deaths. If they use estimates for flu deaths why can’t we with covid.

We already have data on home deaths caused by other factors.

[Kidd Lex]

My issue with the lockdown is it wasn’t nearly strict enough to accomplish what we set out to do, or we had the wrong goals. The former lockdown needed to be paired with strict strict regulations about who could go out, and then mass testing for essential employees as well as as contact tracing. Combine that with 10 weeks of lockdown and zero air travel you can/could’ve shut this down. The way we locked down we only slowed the virus spreading, but we slowed it too much, you need to slow it to just below what hospitals can handle or this goes on forever and the cure is worse than the disease. Opening back up is the right thing as long as masks are worn and we use true social distancing and more testing and contact tracing. Yes we will see more cases, but we can limit hot spots to not overwhelm health care. This will be the best way forward at this point. My fear is people go wild and every city turns into New York in 6 weeks. Now is more important than ever to be smart with your interactions.

[Kidd Lex]

Just the fact they finally opened up doctors offices allowed me to get the basic treatment I needed to treat pneumonia that neither the Dr or I would’ve guessed existed. Telemed wasn’t going to do it, and then this shit lingers, spreads, and gets worse. That’s def a cause for the spikes in deaths, people not getting basic treatment for very treatable ailments and then dying at home as their conditions worsen. Opening up is great, just use some common sense people and we can navigate this shit storm.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

My issue with the lockdown is it wasn’t nearly strict enough to accomplish what we set out to do, or we had the wrong goals. The former lockdown needed to be paired with strict strict regulations about who could go out, and then mass testing for essential employees as well as as contact tracing. Combine that with 10 weeks of lockdown and zero air travel you can/could’ve shut this down. The way we locked down we only slowed the virus spreading, but we slowed it too much, you need to slow it to just below what hospitals can handle or this goes on forever and the cure is worse than the disease. Opening back up is the right thing as long as masks are worn and we use true social distancing and more testing and contact tracing. Yes we will see more cases, but we can limit hot spots to not overwhelm health care. This will be the best way forward at this point. My fear is people go wild and every city turns into New York in 6 weeks. Now is more important than ever to be smart with your interactions.

You cannot lock people down like that in this country.

[TLO]

I think covidly broke

https://covidly.com/?showFavorites=1

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

Just the fact they finally opened up doctors offices allowed me to get the basic treatment I needed to treat pneumonia that neither the Dr or I would’ve guessed existed. Telemed wasn’t going to do it, and then this shit lingers, spreads, and gets worse. That’s def a cause for the spikes in deaths, people not getting basic treatment for very treatable ailments and then dying at home as their conditions worsen. Opening up is great, just use some common sense people and we can navigate this shit storm.

I cannot believe we didn't open up the hospitals and doctor's offices once we saw there wasn't going to be this apocalyptic scene in our ER's. That is a complete and total failure on the part of our governors.

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You cannot lock people down like that in this country.

I agree, that’s my point I failed to articulate. That’s the only way it was worth doing.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think covidly broke

https://covidly.com/?showFavorites=1

It got the Rona

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

I agree, that’s my point I failed to articulate. That’s the only way it was worth doing.

I still think there is a argument to be made about going the way of Sweden. Yes, they are worse than us but on an overall basis from a longer term perspective, are they really?

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

My issue with the lockdown is it wasn’t nearly strict enough to accomplish what we set out to do, or we had the wrong goals. The former lockdown needed to be paired with strict strict regulations about who could go out, and then mass testing for essential employees as well as as contact tracing. Combine that with 10 weeks of lockdown and zero air travel you can/could’ve shut this down. The way we locked down we only slowed the virus spreading, but we slowed it too much, you need to slow it to just below what hospitals can handle or this goes on forever and the cure is worse than the disease. Opening back up is the right thing as long as masks are worn and we use true social distancing and more testing and contact tracing. Yes we will see more cases, but we can limit hot spots to not overwhelm health care. This will be the best way forward at this point. My fear is people go wild and every city turns into New York in 6 weeks. Now is more important than ever to be smart with your interactions.

Originally Posted by petegz28

You cannot lock people down like that in this country.

You're both right. If we were serious about truly stopping this thing dead in its tracks, they should have locked everything down outside the basic essentials like grocery stores and gas stations. NOBODY goes out or goes to work. However, that just wasn't a feasible option in a country of 330+ million, and that's not even bringing up how it would have truly destroyed not just out economy, but the world's.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I cannot believe we didn't open up the hospitals and doctor's offices once we saw there wasn't going to be this apocalyptic scene in our ER's. That is a complete and total failure on the part of our governors.

The last place i would want to be if i had medical issues unless they were urgent is a hospital with an outbreak, or the last place you want to expose covid to is also a hospital, and with known asymptomatic spread it pretty tricky.

Our hospital is still doing out patient exams , we just screen the patients, but a lot of people are avoid Hospitals right now as well. When people see me or my wife in public they give me a lot of space , I have some people jump away from me like i was a spider.