***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

I saw it recently, it was definitely interesting.

I'm just thinking this thing out forward. If Sweden is indeed basically done with it at this point, thats pretty advantageous. Now, what they went thru to get there was short term pain, but if indeed other countries end up passing them on their long slog thru, that changes.

But again, they're not "basically done." Sweden's residents are staying home and not spending money just like everyone else - they're just not being forced to do it.

Your ASSUMPTION is that their declines are due to some level of immunity, but nothing has actually shown that is likely to be the case.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

There are plenty of examples of it. Not here, of course, except for places like NY.

They haven't done much to reopen yet last i saw, so do we really know yet?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

They haven't done much to reopen yet last i saw, so do we really know yet?

https://forward.ny.gov/

New York City is in Phase 3. Other regions are in Phase 4.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

But again, they're not "basically done." Sweden's residents are staying home and not spending money just like everyone else - they're just not being forced to do it.

Your ASSUMPTION is that their declines are due to some level of immunity, but nothing has actually shown that is likely to be the case.

Their curve looks to similar to me for it not to be the case. Maybe not.

I'm hopeful there's something to the 20% population theory and the places that have blown past that are due to massive overshot.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

https://forward.ny.gov/

New York City is in Phase 3. Other regions are in Phase 4.

So you think it's solely because of their actions and how're they're opening and has nothing to do with any immunity to this thing?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by TLO

Did you ever get an antibody test done?

Scheduled for the 28th.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

If 40% of cases are asymptomatic and these other countries are only testing those with symptoms, how many are they really catching though?

Vietnam was aggressive\decisive when they got their first few cases and did mass testing and quarantine of people. They have one of the best testing numbers in the world. Same with Taiwan.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-vietnam

But in all fairness the USA is alot different( ie government structure) then most of these countries. Sweden basically provides your life for you so their citizens don't have the concerns like ours.

But there is no question we should have been 1000000% more aggressive with our actions.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Vietnam was aggressive\decisive when they got their first few cases and did mass testing and quarantine of people. They have one of the best testing numbers in the world. Same with Taiwan.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-vietnam

But in all fairness the USA is alot different( ie government structure) then most of these countries. Sweden basically provides your life for you so their citizens don't have the concerns like ours.

But there is no question we should have been 1000000% more aggressive with our actions.

If we had geared up our testing to be what it is now, in March and April, we'd be a WHOLE lot better off.

Thats not really arguable.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

So you think it's solely because of their actions and how're they're opening and has nothing to do with any immunity to this thing?

I/we don't know. Last I saw, they had antibody rates of around 15% I wouldn't think that that's what is required for herd immunity.

We do know that this is spread by humans.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's kinda been my take on it all along. It is not going away. You can do all the masks and distancing and locking and canceling you want but it is not going away. All it takes is one person and it flares back up.

My stance has been therapeutic treatments first, vaccines second. Simply because a Vaccine won't fix you get it. By the same token, if we can treat it effectively then the vaccine is icing.

I thought the basic idea of a vaccine for Covid was so you don't get it or am I misunderstanding?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

If we had geared up our testing to be what it is now, in March and April, we'd be a WHOLE lot better off.

Thats not really arguable.

I think anywhere that opens will have to deal with new cases, the places that will do better than others will be the ones where the population are being reasonable and responsible and they have government who are aggressive in testing and tracing.

[O.city]

"(I)nfection depends as well on the route of exposure, the size of inoculum, the duration of exposure, and host defenses"

YES this! Airborne transmission is more complicated than just particles or viral RNA detection. I appreciated this balanced review.https://t.co/tBARLN37c9

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) July 14, 2020

Really good article breakdown about spread.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I/we don't know. Last I saw, they had antibody rates of around 15% I wouldn't think that that's what is required for herd immunity.

We do know that this is spread by humans.

Now we're finding that some have some built in immunity to this thing so hopefully that paired with the humoral response gets us there.

We'll see.

[dirk digler]

I am not a big fan of the WHO but I like Dr. Ryan

Dr. Mike Ryan on “herd immunity”. He’s Irish, so he tells it like it is. Listen. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/3joqlW6iHs

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) May 12, 2020

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I thought the basic idea of a vaccine for Covid was so you don't get it or am I misunderstanding?

If you have the virus then a vaccine does little. And as we have seen with the flu vaccine people still get the flu for various reasons.

My faith in all of this is a vaccine is great and all but I would be much more confident if we knew how to treat it effectively if you do get it.