If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30…

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The mock with Watson is why we need to trade up to get one of the top 5 wrs if we have to. London, Garrett Wilson, olave, burks and jameson are in another tier from the rest of the wrs. As soon as the 4th in group is gone, we should should trade up to get whoever is the 5th in that group. I hope it’s jameson!

Seems like a soundly bad strategy. Hitting on a WR in round 1 is no guarantee, for starters, and hitting on after the 1st is nearly as high of a probability. Many very good receivers have come at the top of the 2nd too, so standing pat is definitely a solid option.

Let's do a case study of some recent drafts. You're going to see a trend when you look beyond the 2021 draft (its an enigma and too soon)

2021 Draft (early but do it anyhow)

Spoiler!

R1
Chase - Stud 1400 yd
Waddle - Very Good 1000 yd
Smith - Very good 900 yd
Toney - Subpar 400 yd
Bateman - Mediocre 500 yd

Not going to apply a label w/ the rest, its early
R2
E Moore - 500 yd
R Moore - 400 yd
Eskridge - 60 yds
Atwell - 50 yds
Marshall - 140 yds

R3
Palmer - 350 yds
Brown - 160 yds
Rodgers - 160 yds
Collins - 450 yds
Schwartz - 135 yds

2020 Draft:

Spoiler!

R1
Ruggs - Prison
Jeudy - Mediocre ave 660 yds
Lamb - Very Good 1000 yd receiver
Reagor - Very subpar ave 350 yds
Jefferson - Stud 1500 yd receiver
Aiyuk - Good 800 yd receiver

R2
Higgins - Very Good 1000 yd receiver
Pittman - Good 800 yd ave (1k last year)
Shenault - Mediocre 600 yd ave
Hamler - Subpar 380 yds as a rook then tore ACL
Claypool - Good 865 ave
Jefferson - Mediocre to Good 500 ave but 800 last year
Mims - Subpar 250 ave deep threat only type

R3
Edwards - Subpar 380 ave but stepped up to mediocre with 570 last year
Duvernay - Subpar 235 ave but pro bowl returner

2019 Draft

Spoiler!

R1
Brown - Very Good 790 ave but 1k last year
Harry - Sucks 200 ave

R2
Samuel - Very Good 870 ave but 1400 last yr
Brown - Very Good 1k ave
Hardman - Mediocre 600 ave
Arcega-Whiteside - Sucks 100 ave
Campbell - Sucks cuz he can't stay healthy 120 ave
Isabella - Sucks 140 ave
Metcalf - Stud 1k ave

R3
Johnson - Very Good 900 ave but nearly 1200 last year
Hurd - Sucks never saw the field with injuries
McLaurin - Very Good 1k ave
Boykin - Sucks 150 ave and had plenty of starts first 2 yrs

2018 Draft

Spoiler!

R1
Moore - Very Good to Stud 1100 ave
Ridley - Was turning into a stud after a near 1400 yd 2020 but last year's mental hiatus and his suspension this year puts things in flux

R2
Sutton - Good about 880 ave in 3 health years (out 2020)
Pettis - Sucks 185 ave
Kirk - Solid 725 ave
Miller - Subpar 400 ave
Washington - Subpar 400 ave
Chark - Mediocre 500 ave but has 1k and 700 yd seasons sandwiched in the middle

R3
Gallup - Solid 725 ave with one 1100 yd yr
Smith - Subpar 370 ave

[kcbubb]

Wow. That’s really good research. thanks 🙏 That info makes me want to trade up for jameson! What percentage of athletic bama wrs bust?

Originally Posted by kccrow

Seems like a soundly bad strategy. Hitting on a WR in round 1 is no guarantee, for starters, and hitting on after the 1st is nearly as high of a probability. Many very good receivers have come at the top of the 2nd too, so standing pat is definitely a solid option.

Let's do a case study of some recent drafts. You're going to see a trend when you look beyond the 2021 draft (its an enigma and too soon)

2021 Draft (early but do it anyhow)

Spoiler!

R1
Chase - Stud 1400 yd
Waddle - Very Good 1000 yd
Smith - Very good 900 yd
Toney - Subpar 400 yd
Bateman - Mediocre 500 yd

Not going to apply a label w/ the rest, its early
R2
E Moore - 500 yd
R Moore - 400 yd
Eskridge - 60 yds
Atwell - 50 yds
Marshall - 140 yds

R3
Palmer - 350 yds
Brown - 160 yds
Rodgers - 160 yds
Collins - 450 yds
Schwartz - 135 yds

2020 Draft:

Spoiler!

R1
Ruggs - Prison
Jeudy - Mediocre ave 660 yds
Lamb - Very Good 1000 yd receiver
Reagor - Very subpar ave 350 yds
Jefferson - Stud 1500 yd receiver
Aiyuk - Good 800 yd receiver

R2
Higgins - Very Good 1000 yd receiver
Pittman - Good 800 yd ave (1k last year)
Shenault - Mediocre 600 yd ave
Hamler - Subpar 380 yds as a rook then tore ACL
Claypool - Good 865 ave
Jefferson - Mediocre to Good 500 ave but 800 last year
Mims - Subpar 250 ave deep threat only type

R3
Edwards - Subpar 380 ave but stepped up to mediocre with 570 last year
Duvernay - Subpar 235 ave but pro bowl returner

2019 Draft

Spoiler!

R1
Brown - Very Good 790 ave but 1k last year
Harry - Sucks 200 ave

R2
Samuel - Very Good 870 ave but 1400 last yr
Brown - Very Good 1k ave
Hardman - Mediocre 600 ave
Arcega-Whiteside - Sucks 100 ave
Campbell - Sucks cuz he can't stay healthy 120 ave
Isabella - Sucks 140 ave
Metcalf - Stud 1k ave

R3
Johnson - Very Good 900 ave but nearly 1200 last year
Hurd - Sucks never saw the field with injuries
McLaurin - Very Good 1k ave
Boykin - Sucks 150 ave and had plenty of starts first 2 yrs

2018 Draft

Spoiler!

R1
Moore - Very Good to Stud 1100 ave
Ridley - Was turning into a stud after a near 1400 yd 2020 but last year's mental hiatus and his suspension this year puts things in flux

R2
Sutton - Good about 880 ave in 3 health years (out 2020)
Pettis - Sucks 185 ave
Kirk - Solid 725 ave
Miller - Subpar 400 ave
Washington - Subpar 400 ave
Chark - Mediocre 500 ave but has 1k and 700 yd seasons sandwiched in the middle

R3
Gallup - Solid 725 ave with one 1100 yd yr
Smith - Subpar 370 ave

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Wow. That’s really good research. thanks 🙏 That info makes me want to trade up for jameson! What percentage of athletic bama wrs bust?

You saw all of that and then ended up wanting to trade up for a WR? The ****?

[kcbubb]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

You saw all of that and then ended up wanting to trade up for a WR? The ****?

Yes, if you look at the bama wrs that are athletic and had production; like waddle, Devonta smith, jeudy and Ridley, they’ve all done very well. Jeudy is the only one with average numbers (still pretty good) and he’s been hurt and had poor qb play. Jeudy probably blows up with Wilson. Bama wrs have a good track record in league and the percentage of busts for bama wrs is extremely low. Bama prepares their wrs well. Combine the bama background of success with Jameson’s tape and yes, if the four other top wrs are gone by 20, London, garret, olave and burks, move up 9 spots to get jameson. Looking at the track record of picks from what kccrow posted, that history of average play or busts is scary. Jameson is a high floor AND high ceiling prospect in this offense with mahomes.