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Old 10-04-2010, 08:48 AM  
Fumblerooski Fumblerooski is offline
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Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team
I realize generally it takes more than week 4 to determine the final unbeaten in the NFL. But sitting at work and wondering who the last NFL team that was the final unbeaten failed to make the playoffs was and when. Can't look it up myself as the IS department here are supreme bandwidth Nazi's. But if anyone has time, and wouldn't mind checking, rep to you when I get home.
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Old 10-04-2010, 05:18 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
So, there you go. 42 data points, and 2 missed the playoffs (under today's format), once in 1993, and perhaps once in 1970 if you consider Denver to be one of the last undefeated teams. That is roughly 1 in 20 teams. Will the Chiefs be the 3rd undefeated team to miss the playoffs in 2010?
Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.
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Old 10-04-2010, 05:54 PM   #32
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Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3
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Old 10-04-2010, 05:57 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orange View Post
Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.
That is your definition, and it is a fair one. However, it is not the popular definition; you are in the minority on this. You are using the word "last" in the sense of someone finishing last (or first) in the standings, everyone else is using "last" in the sense of time. The Chiefs are the last unbeaten team in the media, so that's what I went with.
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Old 10-04-2010, 06:01 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
1970 #1 - Lions 3-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
1970 #2 - Rams 3-0 - Missed Playoffs, but would have been the #5 seed in today's format (finished 9-4-1)
1970 #3 - Broncos 3-0 - Missed playoffs (finished 5-8-1)
This is what ESPN was referring too.
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Old 10-04-2010, 06:24 PM   #35
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Okay, everyone, let's give it up for alnorth. How about a round of applause for this guy and all of his hard work in this thread!

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Old 10-04-2010, 06:28 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
Did everyone forget last years Broncos or something?
While a valid thing to consider, it's not the question being asked in the thread.
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Old 10-05-2010, 05:43 PM   #37
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Old 10-05-2010, 05:53 PM   #38
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Old 01-15-2011, 01:19 AM   #39
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updated

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=43):
3 - 9.3%
4 - 9.3%
5 - 14.0%
6 - 18.6%
7 - 11.6%
8 - 2.3%
9 - 9.3%
10 - 9.3%
11 - 4.7%
12 - 2.3%
13 - 2.3%
14 - 4.7%
16 - 2.3%
average - 7.35
median - 6

Conference champ (yes) (n=43): 74.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (yes) (n=22): 54.5%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=42):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.7%
Lost in Wild Card round - 11.9%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 21.4%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 9.5%
Lost in Wild Card round - 19.0%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 9.5%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3
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Old 01-15-2011, 01:34 AM   #40
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I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.
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Old 01-15-2011, 01:41 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel View Post
I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.
I didn't arbitrarily make up the rules to benefit my favorite football team, apparently the convention is chronological. In the event of a situation where you'd think there should be a tie (noon vs 3pm or monday night, not bye vs a bye) tie goes to whoever plays later. I didn't make up the rules, whoever did, it just helped the chiefs this time, so the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club was, officially, in the record books, the last undefeated NFL team in the year 2010, for all the good that did us!
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Old 01-15-2011, 07:11 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel View Post
I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.
What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.
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Old 01-15-2011, 07:14 AM   #43
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What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.
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