If the Chiefs took WR Christian Watson at 30…

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's a non-zero chance he is.

I'm less opposed to JJSS now that we're likely changing our offensive approach pretty substantially.

I simply didn't think he was the complement to Hill/Kelce that most others did. And frankly I still think he's mist-cast out of the slot and should be used as a more conventional X.

But we'll see. He was cheap and he might be exactly the sort of guy I'm talking about.

A couple of the early NGS models I've seen have him around 1000-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's.

If we get that out of him, that would be bonus.

[kcbubb]

Then why does it even matter? If mahomes can turn lemons into lemonade, why not take some free agents like mvs? Why use draft capital on middling free agent level wrs? Just get some decent wrs in free agency and use your draft capital for someone who can be davante Adams or tyreek. Go for the home run in the draft. Get Watson or jameson. Or some other wr that has number 1 ability. That’s what I’m interested in. Is there another wr that has tyreek ability?

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

A few things...

First, re: Calvin Johnson

1. I've seen a few others say this, too... but Georgia Tech didn't run the triple option when Calvin Johnson was there. Chan Gailey was his coach, and they ran a multiple set, with lot of shotgun and early spread offense concepts.

2. Watson was his team's leading receiver as a sophomore, junior, and senior, just like Megatron was in his 3 years at Georgia Tech. They both played 38 games in those 3 years. You know what the difference in their receiving stats are? 2 catches/game (4.5 in an offense that threw 30 times a game instead of 2.5 in an offense that threw 20 times a game) and 25 yards per game.

Neither one of those offenses morphed into feeding the pig, as it was. Gailey ran it more than he threw it every year he had the biggest unicorn in college sports history.

Switching to that topic...

You're familiar with how successful that NDSU coaching staff has been and what a powerhouse that program is, right? They've won what, 9 of the past 11 championships at that level or something like that?

Even with Trey Lance they didn't alter their run-pass ratio. They have a system and the system and program seem to trump individual talent. Kind of like Nebraska in the Devaney/Osborne days, I guess.

Let's not act like coaching staffs don't make mistakes or stubbornly stick to their system, especially at the college level. Ole Miss had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at the same time and somehow didn't give the ball to one of them every down.

Regarding his combine stuff...

Watson did run the 3-cone and shuttle at his pro day and put up good numbers in those, as well (above-average shuttle at 4.19 and 3-cone was above average as well at 6.96).

Finally, regarding why we're just hearing about him...

Well, before he got to the senior bowl and combine and started getting individual notice, he was a big, fast dude on a team that has never thrown it even 1 out of 3 downs while he has been there. Hard to get notice that way beyond the FCS level.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Think of Patrick Mahomes as similar to Coors Field.

There's a saying in baseball circles - "Coors Field doesn't turn bad hitters into good hitters. It turns good hitters into great ones..."

I think that's what an elite quarterback does. He can't turn Demarcus Robinson into Deandre Hopkins. You can't give him guys who just aren't NFL players and have him make them into 1,000 yard guys.

But if you give him 6-700 yard guys, he MIGHT be able to turn them into 1,100 yard guys.

I think the odds of Tolbert or Pierce being merely good NFL players are significantly higher than the odds of Watson being one. And so I'm willing to leave some ceiling on the table for the floor and then let my QB do the rest.

If I had someone like Jimmy Garappolo under center, someone who needs his WRs to carry his water for him, I'm more likely to focus on the ceiling of a player than his floor.

But again - for THIS team - that's just not how I'd operate.

[The Franchise]

I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I’m stuck figuring out if I want Pierce or Tolbert at this point.

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'd just let the guys in front of me choose blonde or brunette here...

I'm honestly pretty content just letting it sort itself out with this group of guys. I'd prefer use one of those late 3s on one of them but it's seeming less and less likely that they fall with the WR market going insane.

I think teams are going to really attack that position to try to get some cost control. Especially with the wealth of height/speed monsters we're seeing in this class.

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Sold. And if Tolbert gets taken, I'd go with Pierce. And if they're both gone I'm still going with Calvin Austin over Watson.

But then if somehow all 3 are gone - that's when Watson at the back of 2 becomes a legitimate consideration.

But I think I'm probably the high man on Austin. I don't think anyone else really puts him ahead of Watson. I just think that we have the style of offense that can do a lot to minimize the height issues and take advantage of that lateral quickness and long-speed.

We don't necessarily need a big body to have a guy generate yards in this system. He won't be a read zone weapon, but he'll be absolutely terrifying between the 20s and on those 3rd down dagger routes, etc... that we used so effectively in short yardage situations.

And lets say we're at the back of 2 and all 4 of those guys are still there - I may just not take any of them. I'd survey the board and see if someone like Perrion Winfrey is slipping. And yeah, I'd get murdered for going DE, DT, DE, DT with my first 4 picks, but **** 'em - I'm driving this bus.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

A guy like Watson definitely presents a conundrum.

He has an athletic profile that absolutely screams at you "#1 WR," and I have little doubt about that. What you can't gauge is how well he's going to adapt to the NFL and how he will enhance his rudimentary route running. He's a definitive "boom or bust" prospect.

In the other corner, I look at a guy like Jalen Tolbert who doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He has a good profile, but not like Watson. What Tolbert does have is elite production and elite route-running skills (for college). His floor is incredibly higher, probably "productive #2 WR." When I do look at Tolbert's athletic profile though, I can't help but see a guy I really liked several years ago that turned out to be a draft steal and certified stud in Stefon Diggs.

So you can take a guy like Watson and hope he reaches his potential, which very well could be in the stratosphere of Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase, or he could easily bust. You could otherwise take a guy like Tolbert who looks to be at least a Marvin Jones caliber #2 that could be Stefon Diggs if he gets even better. When it comes to WRs, I've tried to evaluate more on that athletic profile and haven't had much luck with it in recent times. At this point, I'm taking Tolbert 100 out of 100 times early. I'll save my hopes for guys like Gray or Melton to bust out as a 4th/5th round pick.

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Originally Posted by The Franchise

With the way it’s going….you’re probably taking one of them at 62 if they’re there.

Ojabo
Jones
Williams
Tolbert

I’d be good with this first four picks.

Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL



Ojabo is starting to scare me off a bit. You read reports and his success is SO first-step dependent. For a guy who just popped an Achilles', that's a terrifying idea to me.

If the training staff signs off on it, and they make the pick, I'll be excited about the upside (while waiting nervously for the "he isn't the same" shoe to drop).

And that’s why the Ojabo pick comes with another DE in the 2nd round. Hell if I’m taking Ojabo…then I’m taking three DEs in this draft. You won’t have Ojabo in his first year.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That's fair. I like Tolbert, too. I won't complain and would be excited about both guys. Or Pierce. Really, I'd be excited about anyone except Bell, who is not athletic enough to success in the NFL

Dammit.

At some point this actually turned into a reasonable dialogue about a player.

How the hell did that happen?

**** YOU, DUNCAN! WATSON SUCKS BAWLS!!!

[The Franchise]

I think Juju is going to fit just fine into this offense.

[RunKC]

The question we should be asking with Watson is this: is there a big difference between this kid and Tyquan Thornton, Velus Jones or Danny Gray?

Because you can get one of those 3 at the end of the 2nd rd.

I think I’d rather get with option B and get a Danny Gray at 62 o 94.

[Nightfyre]

I love the discussion fellas. Gimme Burks at 29, Watson at 50, and a high ceiling slot guy in the mid rounds.

[Kiimo]

I wasn't sure which thread to put this in but this guy is a great follow on Twitter

Some had Flowers at 4.4, which bumps the score up slightly. Fast is fast! https://t.co/ARMFPdaXMI pic.twitter.com/Kg8kGBTz5D

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 1, 2022

[kcbubb]

DJ can you explain how Austin is better than Watson? I need more detail. I’m not seeing that.

And runkc, I see watson as way better that velus, tyquan, gray or the others in the late speed category. Duncan is right. His athletic ability shows on tape. He’s a stud. his press man needs work. Way too many false steps but the ability is there with quick feet, really amazing quickness, and long arms to defeat the press. Watson is a day one immediate deep threat and immediate gadget player. His natural run after the catch is electric. He’s gonna need work on routes and the basics of the position but watson shows potential to be able to make the transition. Day one, watson is legit deep threat and gadget player and can develop the nuisances of the game over time. Watson has elite level, top 5-10 wr in the league talent but it will have to be groomed. His floor is deep threat and gadget player, which isn’t terrible and better than hardman.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

DJ can you explain how Austin is better than Watson? I need more detail. I’m not seeing that.

Because when people want to talk about Watson's athleticism, what they really mean is that he's shockingly athletic for someone that TALL.

Because if you want to talk about athleticism, Austin beats him literally across the board.

40: 4.36 vs. 4.32 -- Austin
3-cone: 6.96 vs. 6.65 -- Austin
Shuttle: 4.19 vs. 4.07 -- Austin

Watson is a great athlete, but a generational one? He's not even the best athlete in this class. He's just a very rare sort of athlete for someone as tall as he is.

And I don't care that much about his height. Not in a WCO w/ a QB that can challenge every blade of grass on the field.

Moreover, Austin is hard as a coffin nail. He's tough as ****. He wasn't some undersized slot WR out there looking to avoid contact. He was playing wide, getting off presses, working the middle and attacking the boundaries. To my eyes he is a FAR more dynamic player. He also looks more polished as an actual WR to me - very natural in his movements when he cuts or when he goes after the ball. And because of his build and stature, he's actually REALLY hard to knock off his route. If you get him off stride it just doesn't matter because he foot-fires right back into line.

He's just short. And yeah, that's unfortunate, but when you have a smart offensive staff and an elite QB, not to mention guys like Kelce, JJSS and MVS who can occupy the larger DBs on the defense anyway, you can find a LOT of space for Austin to work in. And if you get him in space, the defense is just completely boned. The way he gets to speed with those incredibly fast feet just make him impossible to isolate and keeps all those easy money sideways short pitch and catches in the playbook. I just don't see that with Watson.