Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team

[alnorth]

I was curious whether this happened more than once, so I went back all the way to the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

1992 - Dolphins 6-0 - AFC East Champs and #2 seed, lost AFC championship
1991 - Redskins 11-0 - NFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XXVI
(tie in 1990, two teams made it to week 12 and lost the early sunday game, I didn't bother to try to figure out how long each game lasted to break the tie)
1990 #1 - 49'ers 10-0 - NFC West Champs and #1 seed, lost NFC championship
1990 #2 - Giants 10-0 - NFC East Champs and #2 seed, won Super Bowl XXV
1989 - Rams 5-0 - NFC Wild Card and #5 seed, lost NFC championship
1988 - Bengals 6-0 - AFC Central Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl XXIII
1987 - Bears 4-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost in Divisional round
1986 - Broncos 6-0 - AFC West Champs and #2 seed, lost Super Bowl XXI
1985 - Bears 12-0 - NFC Central Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XX
1984 - Dolphins 11-0 - AFC East Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl XIX
1983 - Cowboys 7-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost in Wild Card round
1982 throwing this year out because of the craziness of no divisions and 8 seed format. Redskins were last undefeated at 4-0
1981 - Eagles 6-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost in Wild Card round
1980 - Bills 5-0 - AFC East Champs and #3 seed, lost in Divisional round
1979 - Buccaneers 5-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost NFC championship
1978 - Steelers 7-0 - AFC Central Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XIII
1977 - Cowboys 9-0 - NFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XII
1976 - Cowboys 5-0 - NFC East Champs and #2 seed, lost Divisional round
1975 - Vikings 10-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost Divisional round
1974 - Cardinals 7-0 - NFC East Champs and #3 seed, lost Divisional round
1973 - Vikings 9-0 - NFC Central Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl VIII
1972 - Dolphins 14-0 - AFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl VII
1971 - Redskins 5-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
(3-way tie in 1970, three teams made it to week 4 and lost the early sunday game, I didn't bother to try to figure out how long each game lasted to break the tie)
1970 #1 - Lions 3-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
1970 #2 - Rams 3-0 - Missed Playoffs, but would have been the #5 seed in today's format (finished 9-4-1)
1970 #3 - Broncos 3-0 - Missed playoffs (finished 5-8-1)

So, there you go. 42 data points, and 2 missed the playoffs (under today's format), once in 1993, and perhaps once in 1970 if you consider Denver to be one of the last undefeated teams. That is roughly 1 in 20 teams. Will the Chiefs be the 3rd last undefeated team to miss the playoffs in 2010?

[orange]

Originally Posted by alnorth

So, there you go. 42 data points, and 2 missed the playoffs (under today's format), once in 1993, and perhaps once in 1970 if you consider Denver to be one of the last undefeated teams. That is roughly 1 in 20 teams. Will the Chiefs be the 3rd undefeated team to miss the playoffs in 2010?

Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by orange

Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.

That is your definition, and it is a fair one. However, it is not the popular definition; you are in the minority on this. You are using the word "last" in the sense of someone finishing last (or first) in the standings, everyone else is using "last" in the sense of time. The Chiefs are the last unbeaten team in the media, so that's what I went with.

[alnorth]

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

[alnorth]

updated

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=43):
3 - 9.3%
4 - 9.3%
5 - 14.0%
6 - 18.6%
7 - 11.6%
8 - 2.3%
9 - 9.3%
10 - 9.3%
11 - 4.7%
12 - 2.3%
13 - 2.3%
14 - 4.7%
16 - 2.3%
average - 7.35
median - 6

Conference champ (yes) (n=43): 74.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (yes) (n=22): 54.5%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=42):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.7%
Lost in Wild Card round - 11.9%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 21.4%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 9.5%
Lost in Wild Card round - 19.0%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 9.5%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

Originally Posted by alnorth

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

[007]

Originally Posted by alnorth

1970 #1 - Lions 3-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
1970 #2 - Rams 3-0 - Missed Playoffs, but would have been the #5 seed in today's format (finished 9-4-1)
1970 #3 - Broncos 3-0 - Missed playoffs (finished 5-8-1)

This is what ESPN was referring too.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Guru

Did everyone forget last years Broncos or something?

While a valid thing to consider, it's not the question being asked in the thread.

[Rain Man]

Okay, everyone, let's give it up for alnorth. How about a round of applause for this guy and all of his hard work in this thread!

[BossChief]

Mike Shannahans Broncos won the first 6 games...McFistpumps team closed out the year.

[bevischief]

[WebGem]

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

I didn't arbitrarily make up the rules to benefit my favorite football team, apparently the convention is chronological. In the event of a situation where you'd think there should be a tie (noon vs 3pm or monday night, not bye vs a bye) tie goes to whoever plays later. I didn't make up the rules, whoever did, it just helped the chiefs this time, so the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club was, officially, in the record books, the last undefeated NFL team in the year 2010, for all the good that did us!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by The Amazing Heel

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by PGM

What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.

This.
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