Study: Trading up in the draft is a sucker's bet

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

If you can trade down in the first round, especially out of the top 5 picks, it's always a good thing. That being said, the key for any team is to make the picks count. I know this article claims there's a lot of chance/luck involved but I beg to differ.

Indy had the chance to draft either Manning or Leaf. Indy chose Manning. Good choice, and not luck at all. Now, let's talk about Luck. Indy could have drafted RG3 or Andrew Luck. Indy drafted Luck.

See, it's not random chance. It's making good decisions.

What leads you to this conclusion? The success of a lucky pick looks the same as the success of a pick based on a good decision.