Study: Trading up in the draft is a sucker's bet

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

hmm... well if it was luck then Polian would have flipped a coin, head's it's Manning, tails it's Leaf and the coin would have landed on heads, right?

No, that's not right at all. That's what I've been trying to get through to you. The fact that Polian believed he was picking Manning for all the right reasons doesn't mean he wasn't lucky. How many times has he made a pick believing that he was picking the right guy for the right reasons only to be wrong?

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by patteeu

No, that's not right at all. That's what I've been trying to get through to you. The fact that Polian believed he was picking Manning for all the right reasons doesn't mean he wasn't lucky. How many times has he made a pick believing that he was picking the right guy for the right reasons only to be wrong?

I don't know how many times Polian has made a pick KNOWING it was going to be successful but using the Manning example is just wrong. Certainly when you have the #1 pick you do a hellova lot of research before you go to the podium. Polian scrutinized the hell out of Manning and much of that was due to the fact that Leaf was sitting there too. I will say this again because it doesn't appear to have sunk in with you. Polian could have very well OPTED for Manning knowing full well that he might be wrong and that Leaf might end up being better. That's not luck, that's taking the guy you want regardless of what others think.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

I don't know how many times Polian has made a pick KNOWING it was going to be successful but using the Manning example is just wrong. Certainly when you have the #1 pick you do a hellova lot of research before you go to the podium. Polian scrutinized the hell out of Manning and much of that was due to the fact that Leaf was sitting there too. I will say this again because it doesn't appear to have sunk in with you. Polian could have very well OPTED for Manning knowing full well that he might be wrong and that Leaf might end up being better. That's not luck, that's taking the guy you want regardless of what others think.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by patteeu

this ain't hard to understand.

[HoneyBadger]

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

I don't know how many times Polian has made a pick KNOWING it was going to be successful but using the Manning example is just wrong. Certainly when you have the #1 pick you do a hellova lot of research before you go to the podium. Polian scrutinized the hell out of Manning and much of that was due to the fact that Leaf was sitting there too. I will say this again because it doesn't appear to have sunk in with you. Polian could have very well OPTED for Manning knowing full well that he might be wrong and that Leaf might end up being better. That's not luck, that's taking the guy you want regardless of what others think.

No. Time and time again the draft has shown to be a great unknown.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by HoneyBadger

No. Time and time again the draft has shown to be a great unknown.

Yes and no. Drafting Andrew Luck #1 was not a real hard choice.