Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

So basically the same logic used in the statements that say the chiefs are only a product of who they have played.... bad teams and backup QB's.

Yea, they are both true to some extent.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Guru

A pick play is a pick play. So what exactly is a barely legal pick play?

It's just in the execution of the play by simply being good at making the contact appear incidental- often times squared up back to the line of scrimmage, using your hands to signal for the ball, while knowing your going to run into the defender you're targeting to pick or rub on the play. It's posted on here in another thread, but you can clearly see their guys making a straight b-line for the defender, which you obviously don't want if you're truly trying to get open as a receiver.

Refs are obviously not spotting it while trying to survey the field, and depending on when they do see the contact- its actually been more to their benefit this year and they've thrown the flag on the defense for PI or holding a handful of times!

If you had a ref actually responsible for watching each individual receiver instead of assigned portions of the field it'd be way less of an issue. Hell, they have officials upstairs where it's way easier to spot from an overhead full view position- they could easily incorporate their responsibilities up in the box to flag calls and simply buzz the head official during the play when they see a penalty.

Truth be told, the NFL isn't so much instructing them not to call it, but it's definitely not something that is being highlighted for crews to be more attentive to, and they're certainly not going to add further personnel to aid getting more calls correct especially when it would deride their desire for more and more offense and scoring by the entire league.!

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

WTF?

You have the blueprint... (vader voice) "Nooooooooooooooooooo"

KC's offense is pretty spare to fair on the road this season. Denver's "blueprint" for KC, contain Charles while forcing Smith to be a QB. Then offensively, keep Manning upright.

The problem is that EVERY team has tried that this year. To a certain extent, ANDY REID has tried that (terribly unbalanced run vs. pass).

We're still undefeated.

[gblowfish]

Gotta Love The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/ala...dead-fo,34555/

[Pablo]

If the WR's can work on getting 10-15 yards of separation constantly, I think we'll see Smith open this thing up!

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The problem is that EVERY team has tried that this year. To a certain extent, ANDY REID has tried that (terribly unbalanced run vs. pass).

We're still undefeated.

Right and we've covered this... if KC can maintain the pace with the D/ST scoring TDs, then yeah - it will all work out.

KC's offense has been less than impressive in their 4 road games... you call it "a hallmark", I call it something else. But, it is what it is and if it can hold up, well then they'll do great things.

I believe that while KC's defense is salivating at the notion of shutting down the vaunted Manning offense... Denver's defense is relishing in the fact that the Chiefs are coming to town just as much.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Right and we've covered this... if KC can maintain the pace with the D/ST scoring TDs, then yeah - it will all work out.

I don't see how you could suggest, at this point, that it won't continue. It's happened in basically 9 out of 9 games.

That would be like suggesting that Manning is going to suddenly stop throwing TD passes.

At this point in the season, teams are pretty well cemented in what they are.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't see how you could suggest, at this point, that it won't continue. It's happened in basically 9 out of 9 games.

That would be like suggesting that Manning is going to suddenly stop throwing TD passes.

At this point in the season, teams are pretty well cemented in what they are.

It was 7 out of 9 games, right? So, the trend of a QB throwing TDs in every game is comparable to a D/ST scoring TDs in nearly every game? Weird.

And, if teams "are what they are" at this point in the season... then looking at the offensive struggles of the Chiefs on the road is a good measure. Yeah?

KC has no hope of winning either game with Denver unless the offense steps it up.

[Red Dawg]

[QUOTE=Mile High Mania;10186849]They'll definitely mix things up with some looks that we haven't seen really since the beginning of the season and some new ones. That's what I like about the play calling. But again, Welker won't have a reduced role.

I think they keep Moreno and someone else back there to pass protect with Thomas, Thomas, Decker and Welker set up to work their magic.

Tough to cover, esp with Moreno dropping down for the quick dump pass in case of emergency. They'll have plenty of variations to work with on Sunday night.

They try to set the tone with the ground game, but their bread is buttered with the options in that passing attack. Not to mention, all the cheating and picking... how can they be stopped?[/QUOTE

Stopped? By putting Manning on his but like Mathis did and jamming the wr's at the line to throw off the timing with tight coverage. They can be stopped.

By planting Manning ass in the ground. Jamming the wr's at the line throwing off the timing. Denver fans act like Manning has never lost a game. Indy did beat you. What was the reason? Just a fluke? Or did they just man up a beat you?

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

It was 7 out of 9 games, right? So, the trend of a QB throwing TDs in every game is comparable to a D/ST scoring TDs in nearly every game? Weird.

The defense hasn't scored TDs in every game. But they've kept the other team from scoring them at a fairly historic clip.

Everything they do is timely, whether it's a score or just a regular turnover. It all contributes.

I wonder if people were still calling the 2000 Ravens a fluke in Week 9? Because this defense is in that same historical category...

[Mile High Mania]

[QUOTE=Tuckdaddy;10187396]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

They'll definitely mix things up with some looks that we haven't seen really since the beginning of the season and some new ones. That's what I like about the play calling. But again, Welker won't have a reduced role.

I think they keep Moreno and someone else back there to pass protect with Thomas, Thomas, Decker and Welker set up to work their magic.

Tough to cover, esp with Moreno dropping down for the quick dump pass in case of emergency. They'll have plenty of variations to work with on Sunday night.

They try to set the tone with the ground game, but their bread is buttered with the options in that passing attack. Not to mention, all the cheating and picking... how can they be stopped?[/QUOTE

Stopped? By putting Manning on his but like Mathis did and jamming the wr's at the line to throw off the timing with tight coverage. They can be stopped.

By planting Manning ass in the ground. Jamming the wr's at the line throwing off the timing. Denver fans act like Manning has never lost a game. Indy did beat you. What was the reason? Just a fluke? Or did they just man up a beat you?

Sure, run with the tongue in cheek comment as if I believe they will never be stopped.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

KC has no hope of winning either game with Denver unless the offense steps it up.

Now I understand why I've never paid attention to your posts: You're Knowmo's Dad.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Now I understand why I've never paid attention to your posts: You're Knowmo's Dad.

It's all good... and I'm nowhere near that level of crazy.

[vailpass]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The defense hasn't scored TDs in every game. But they've kept the other team from scoring them at a fairly historic clip.

Everything they do is timely, whether it's a score or just a regular turnover. It all contributes.

I wonder if people were still calling the 2000 Ravens a fluke in Week 9? Because this defense is in that same historical category...

And damn near as hard to watch

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by vailpass

And damn near as hard to watch

There is no doubt that watching Chiefs games this year can be brutal at times.

But that said, watching other games around the NFL this past weekend proved that watching nearly every team is brutal these days.

It's the new CBA: Limited offseason practices, no more Two-A-Days, limited contact during the season.

It's made for some bad football.