606 Points In A Season

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

And yet, the NFL is more popular than ever.

My theory is that they're broadening the base while narrowing the foundation. They're dumbing down the game and making it more popular among non-fans, because it's cool to go to a Super Bowl party and wear official NFL-branded merchandise.

However, this approach is hurting the core of the fan base, those people who will go fill a stadium on Week 15 when the two teams are 6-8.

On its current path, I think the NFL will continue to see TV ratings rise for big games, but they'll see stagnation and then a decline in TV ratings and attendance for teams that aren't winning. The NFL-branded casual fans that the NFL is courting aren't going to care about those games, and the hardcore fans are being driven away. In the end, I think there'll be a business crisis in the NFL as a result of the marketing-driving approach that's being used right now.

You can use marketing to grow the NFL just like you can with any other business. But at the same time you have to recognize that it's a bit different than other consumer goods, and increasing short-term sales at the cost of long-term loyalty carries a price.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

My theory is that they're broadening the base while narrowing the foundation. They're dumbing down the game and making it more popular among non-fans, because it's cool to go to a Super Bowl party and wear official NFL-branded merchandise.

However, this approach is hurting the core of the fan base, those people who will go fill a stadium on Week 15 when the two teams are 6-8.

On its current path, I think the NFL will continue to see TV ratings rise for big games, but they'll see stagnation and then a decline in TV ratings and attendance for teams that aren't winning. The NFL-branded casual fans that the NFL is courting aren't going to care about those games, and the hardcore fans are being driven away. In the end, I think there'll be a business crisis in the NFL as a result of the marketing-driving approach that's being used right now.

You can use marketing to grow the NFL just like you can with any other business. But at the same time you have to recognize that it's a bit different than other consumer goods, and increasing short-term sales at the cost of long-term loyalty carries a price.

Three things jump out at me:

1 - Dumbing down the fan base. Exciting games "sell" tickets and make it a must see experience. I think in time, you'll see a shift back from what we have right now. Nothing that goes back to the 70s/80s, but they're overly sensitive to the injury concerns (concussions, lawsuits, etc) and while safety is a big part of it (right or wrong), it's making more games more fun to watch by a broader fan base... again, I don't think that's dumbing it down though.

2- Core fan base ... honestly, how many teams will sell out or reach a near sell out with two 6-8 teams battling it out for nothing in week 15? You're going to have your diehards that show up, win or lose. If you want to blame weak attendance on something, look at ticket prices, etc - not the rules changes.

3 - Decline in ratings ... see #2 above. Few people want to watch crappy teams play on TV. There are so many things competing for our attention and long gone are the days of just sitting around all weekend and watching whatever games are on TV. There's just too much to do now and you can catch the highlights and recaps online any time after those crappy games are over.

If anything, the rules changes that favor offense makes games between the Browns and Jags late in the season worth watching.

I agree that it's a bit watered down when you view it from a defensive perspective, but big stadiums, suites, crazy contracts... there are big bills to pay and they'll squeeze the fans out of every nickle we want to give them.

You can't just say on a whim "I think I'll take my family to a game in a couple of weeks". You might get tickets, but you're going to pay a ton of money when it's all said and done for a family of 4 to experience an NFL game.

That is what the league has as a major issue... that is why nobody wants to go watch the Jags suffer through a game.

[Rain Man]

Nice response. I've been thinking about this a lot lately, so it's good to get feedback.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Three things jump out at me:

1 - Dumbing down the fan base. Exciting games "sell" tickets and make it a must see experience. I think in time, you'll see a shift back from what we have right now. Nothing that goes back to the 70s/80s, but they're overly sensitive to the injury concerns (concussions, lawsuits, etc) and while safety is a big part of it (right or wrong), it's making more games more fun to watch by a broader fan base... again, I don't think that's dumbing it down though.

I hope we see a bit of a swing back. I like passing as much as anyone, but there has to be some defense involved instead of just pitch and catch. But pitch and catch is what excites the casual fan, so there's no argument from a marketing perspective to swing the pendulum back. 400 yards is good and 500 yards is great, so next year let's be at 550.

I think the best chance is an injury analysis. More passing may be producing more concussions and more knee injuries, because it produces higher-speed collisions. That'll take a few years to play out, though.

The only other argument is for the balance of the game, but I don't think that's an issue for the NFL. They did a show on "The Forward Pass" on NFL Network a couple of months ago, and I was struck when one of the people said, "We may be on the verge of seeing an NFL game where a team doesn't run the ball at all." I think the NFL doesn't mind that.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

2- Core fan base ... honestly, how many teams will sell out or reach a near sell out with two 6-8 teams battling it out for nothing in week 15? You're going to have your diehards that show up, win or lose. If you want to blame weak attendance on something, look at ticket prices, etc - not the rules changes.

Yeah, I probably misstated the "full stadium" part. But my point is that you can count on the diehards if they like the sport, even if their team stinks. However, if you change the game to the point where the sport is less enjoyable, you're going to lose some of them. And every one of them is important in those B- and C-grade games.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

3 - Decline in ratings ... see #2 above. Few people want to watch crappy teams play on TV. There are so many things competing for our attention and long gone are the days of just sitting around all weekend and watching whatever games are on TV. There's just too much to do now and you can catch the highlights and recaps online any time after those crappy games are over.

The TV ratings thing is interesting. If the casual fans just watch the highlights and recaps, then they don't need to watch the games and likely have little interest in watching the games. Therefore, ad revenues decline and the big TV deals decline. Maybe they can make it up by ad revenues on the incredibly annoying nfl.com site, but in the big scheme of things, it seems like a bad thing for the sport if fewer and fewer people watch the games.

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

If anything, the rules changes that favor offense makes games between the Browns and Jags late in the season worth watching.

I agree that it's a bit watered down when you view it from a defensive perspective, but big stadiums, suites, crazy contracts... there are big bills to pay and they'll squeeze the fans out of every nickle we want to give them.

You can't just say on a whim "I think I'll take my family to a game in a couple of weeks". You might get tickets, but you're going to pay a ton of money when it's all said and done for a family of 4 to experience an NFL game.

That is what the league has as a major issue... that is why nobody wants to go watch the Jags suffer through a game.

Ticket prices is another big challenge they face. When most people have a high-definition big-screen TV that's indoors, it's harder to get people to buy tickets. And it's worse when those tickets are triple-digit costs. Technology alone may take the crowd out of the game in the long-term, and that dilutes the user experience. I think that's different than marketing issues, but I sure think it poses a problem for all professional sports in the long run.

Do we have a future end game scenario where tickets aren't even sold, and all events happen in a studio setting? Or will stadiums get smaller? How relevant are game-day crowds in the financial models now? And how important is the game-day experience in building a bond with a team that will inspire franchise loyalty? It's hard to imagine that live crowds will ever go away, but I do think we've passed the zenith of live attendance at professional sports.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

The only other argument is for the balance of the game, but I don't think that's an issue for the NFL. They did a show on "The Forward Pass" on NFL Network a couple of months ago, and I was struck when one of the people said, "We may be on the verge of seeing an NFL game where a team doesn't run the ball at all." I think the NFL doesn't mind that.

I don't know if you've followed any of the analysis on run-pass balance on Advanced NFL Stats, but it very interesting. For many teams, running the ball is a wasted down.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/sear...ax-results=100

(links within the articles are worth tracking down too).

The article on historical analysis of run-pass balance was particularly good.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...-analysis.html

Especially this passage:

To me, this suggests defenses have largely remained unchanged, despite the focus on pass rushing beginning with players like Lawrence Taylor. Defenses appear to stubbornly focus on the run, making certain that they keep running efficiency under control. But this focus comes at the expense of passing efficiency. Defenses are happy to let passing efficiency 'be what it will be' in their pursuit of stopping the run.

Defenses may not have a choice. Perhaps once running efficiency gets much over 4 YPC, stopping an offense becomes extremely difficult. With 3 tries to get 10 yards, perhaps 4 YPC is a magic number that the basic rules of football dictate. It could be that run defense is simply inelastic. The way modern defensive schemes are constructed, defenses are unable to shift toward stopping passes more effectively. Whatever the reason, defenses appear either unable or unwilling to adapt.

If it the above conjecture about run defense inelasticity is accurate, rule changes would be the only way to restore run-pass balance to the game.

[-King-]

Eh. Still love watching games on Sunday. I'm really sad that we only have a few more weeks of this left.

[jjchieffan]

It's gonna be that much sweeter when that record setting offense is sitting at home watching the Superbowl come February. **** the Donks

[scho63]

Every game will be like the Pro Bowl

[Mile High Mania]

I think the league really needs to consider the "at the game" experience... if the diehard fan continues to be squeezed out for the big $ guys that have half the heart and commitment to the team, the game will begin to fail.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I think the league really needs to consider the "at the game" experience... if the diehard fan continues to be squeezed out for the big $ guys that have half the heart and commitment to the team, the game will begin to fail.

This is the most important thing to consider.

If a guy has a family of four, he can easily spend the majority of his week's pay on a Sunday game/tailgating/food and beverage inside the stadium. Doesn't it make much more sense to enjoy that game at home?

I really don't feel like the NFL is less enjoyable to watch in the slightest. And if the Chiefs were the team scoring 35+ a game, I doubt too many people on this forum would take issue with that. Purists can say they really enjoy a good defensive battle that ends up 10-6; but they're in the minority

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Pablo

I really don't feel like the NFL is less enjoyable to watch in the slightest. And if the Chiefs were the team scoring 35+ a game, I doubt too many people on this forum would take issue with that. Purists can say they really enjoy a good defensive battle that ends up 10-6; but they're in the minority

This could be my own personal bias, but I think there's an optimal frequency in scoring. Soccer is boring because scores are too rare, and hockey suffers a similar fate, albeit to a lesser degree. When you watch a game for three hours and there's one or two scores, that's too slow a pace.

Basketball is extremely boring because scores are too frequent. When you watch a game for two hours and there are 100 scores, there's nothing to highlight. It's an assembly line.

I always thought that football had it right. You'd watch a game for three hours and there would be six or seven scores. Maybe it's nitpicky to say that 12 scores is too many, and if I'd grown up with 12-score games maybe I'd think that's the right amount. But it feels like too many, to the point where it seems like the game just comes down to whoever scores last before the clock runs out.

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I think the league really needs to consider the "at the game" experience... if the diehard fan continues to be squeezed out for the big $ guys that have half the heart and commitment to the team, the game will begin to fail.

We need more barrel-man...

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I think the league really needs to consider the "at the game" experience... if the diehard fan continues to be squeezed out for the big $ guys that have half the heart and commitment to the team, the game will begin to fail.

Yeah, that's a major problem, especially given the high quality of the at-home experience now.

I think you can build a loyal fan without the game-day experience, because many of us were fans for years before attending a game in person. But if going to a game ends up being a bucket list type of thing rather than an annual pilgrimage, it's not good for the league's marketing. You don't want to show 80% of your games on TV in front of a half-empty stadium. That's why Los Angeles can't keep a team.

[Hammock Parties]

The butthurt is so thick.

We wouldn't care if that was our QB and our offense.

The second we get a QB we will be ecstatic and laughing at poverty passing teams.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

The butthurt is so thick.

We wouldn't care if that was our QB and our offense.

The second we get a QB we will be ecstatic and laughing at poverty passing teams.

Yup.

Think back to a few short months ago when we were are sure we had the second coming of the '85 Bears D. Thread after thread after thread about how great we were.

Because it feels good to root for the best. And if Alex Smith just finished the season with 5,500 yards and 55 TD's; the keyboards of the CP collective would be the stickiest in the entire nation.

[Bearcat]

Great discussion.

I don't think it's about Peyton butthurt at all... it's been a steady decline for several years, but it's just that much more obvious and frustrating when a rival sets a record that highlights the main reason for the decline. There was the same discussion a few weeks ago with no need to talk about Denver.

About 6-7 years ago, I stopped watching every single Chiefs game (thanks, Herm), and shortly after that I started watching more college ball and not worrying so much about missing NFL games. Once a month or so there was some can't-miss game and mid-January football was still awesome, but like others have said, after a while all of those great games look exactly the same.

There are still some great games, but Rain Man has hit the nail on the head in several posts... the business of the NFL and their shortsightedness has ruined the game.